|
|
| Proprietary
"Dividend Optimizer" Model Uncovers Winning Income
Stocks |
|
|
Published: May 5 , 2004
Editor's Note: In today's "Income Watch"
article, my staff and I are pleased to announce the impending release of
our newest investing service. On June 1st we will launch a new
newsletter devoted exclusively to income-oriented investments. Written
by experienced analyst and veteran StreetAuthority writer Carla
Pasternak, each monthly issue will include a wealth of information and
actionable investing ideas to help you earn a steady income stream from
your investments. In addition, Carla will employ a proprietary model
that she has developed to help her identify the most attractively valued
income stocks on the market.
If you're looking for a stable source of income
from dividend-paying stocks and other high-yielding securities, then
this newsletter is for you. We'll send you further details on this
exciting new product in the coming weeks (at that time, we'll also
incorporate it into our web site), so please be on the lookout for more
information shortly.
In the meantime, in today's "Income
Watch" article Carla will introduce you to the type of topics
she'll cover in her upcoming newsletter, as well as to her proprietary
dividend model.
-----------------------------
Excellent companies weren't born yesterday. That’s
why my upcoming income newsletter will focus exclusively on stocks with
proven track records, attractive valuations and bright growth prospects.
Firms with these key characteristics are more likely to outperform their
peers in both up and down markets.
What Will The Upcoming Newsletter Include?
Each month I will start out by bringing you the inside scoop on the
latest market trends. I'll then move into an analysis of five timely
investment ideas that you can use to profit from these trends. In our
first issue, for instance, I'll profile five superior stocks that you
can use to help shield your portfolio from rising interest rates. In
addition, it's important to keep in mind that smart income investing
isn't just about identifying high-quality companies, it's also about
avoiding risky firms with significant downside potential. With that as a
backdrop, I'll also bring you a list of companies to avoid in a rising
interest rate environment.
After bringing you a broader market overview and a
feature article filled with several specific investing ideas, I'll then
move into an in-depth analysis of two timely income-oriented investments
that are poised to deliver above-average returns in the months and years
ahead. These in-depth profiles will introduce you to a number of new
investing ideas and will provide you with all the information you'll
need to make the right decisions for your portfolio.
Next, as is the case with all of our other newsletters
here at StreetAuthority.com, I think it's extremely important for you to
be able to track my performance from month to month. This will allow you
to gauge the profitability of my investment ideas. After all, I only
want you to subscribe to my newsletter if it helps you generate real,
meaningful long-term profits. With this in mind, I'm going to organize
my top income picks into a variety of recommended portfolios. One
portfolio will cover high-yielding dividend stocks, another will feature
attractive-looking REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and the final
portfolio will cover income-oriented ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). In
each issue I'll not only provide you with a detailed performance summary
for each of these three portfolios, but I'll also bring you updated
guidance and an analysis of recent events that you should be aware of if
you hold any of these investments.
|
Register
for Carla Pasternak's High-Yield Investing newsletter
today and you'll receive as many as SIX in-depth research reports absolutely FREE!
|
|
Proprietary Dividend Model
After bringing you continued guidance on my three sample portfolios
each month, I'll then move into an analysis of my proprietary dividend
model. Although all of the above information should be prove to be
extremely useful for the average income investor, my proprietary
dividend model is what will really set my newsletter apart from the
pack. With this in mind, I'm going to devote the rest of today's article
to an analysis of my model. To help prepare you for the model and to
give you a better sense for how it works, here's a quick look at some of
the details:
My proprietary dividend model consists of two primary
steps. First, I use a high-powered screening tool to narrow the vast
investing universe (which consists of about 10,000 stocks) down to a
list of just 100 companies with superior income characteristics. Among
other things, I look for firms with above-average dividend yields
(higher than the average S&P 500 component, which currently yields
about 1.65%), extensive track records of strong dividend growth,
superior earnings growth, etc. Although historical performance is no
guarantee of future success, I'm confident that the 100 companies that
managed to meet my stringent criteria here will deliver superior returns
going forward.
This initial screen, which I will perform just once
per year in the future, leaves me with a list of 100 possible income
investments. However, to help you identify the cream of the crop from
this list, I decided to come up with a way to rank each of these 100
stocks throughout the year. To accomplish this, I developed a
proprietary scoring system that assigns points to each of these
companies based on certain key income-oriented criteria. Although the
specific details of this scoring system are proprietary, here are a few
of the general items that the model looks for:
-- The higher a stock's dividend yield, the greater
the number of points it receives.
-- The higher a stock's 5-year average dividend growth rate, the greater
its point total.
In addition to these items, my formula looks at each
firm's dividend yield in relation to its 5-year average. Over time,
every company's yield will tend to fluctuate both above and below its
five-year average. One of the goals of my model is to capture stocks
when they are delivering higher-than-average dividend yields (such
stocks are usually undervalued), and to avoid stocks that are currently
delivering below-average yields (these stocks tend to be overvalued).
With this in mind, my model assigns positive points when a stock's yield
is above its 5-year average, but subtracts points from companies that
are currently delivering below-average yields (relative to their own
unique historical averages).
Based mainly on these key criteria, my proprietary
model assigns a unique ranking to each and every one of the 100 income
stocks in our investing universe. To assist you in sifting through the
data, I then sort this list based on each company's proprietary rank.
The important thing to understand is that the higher a firm's point
total based on my scoring system, the better. In addition, because a
company's stock price and dividend yield change every single day, please
keep in mind that my ratings fluctuate regularly. Because of this, I
will always make sure to include a revised ranking for all 100 stocks in
each and every one of my monthly newsletter issues. This will ensure
that I provide you with the most timely investment ideas possible.
In the table below you'll find the most recent
rankings (as of the close of trading on Friday, May 14th) for all 100
income stocks based on my proprietary scoring system:
| Symbol |
Company |
Crnt
Price |
Yield |
5-Yr
Avg. Div Yield |
5-Yr
Div Growth |
Rating |
| C |
Citigroup |
45.65 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
32 |
25 |
| BPT |
BP Prudhoe Royalty Trust |
29.64 |
11.7 |
13.7 |
30 |
18 |
| IMH |
Impac
Mortgage Holdings |
19.67 |
13.3 |
11.7 |
7 |
16 |
| FRE |
Freddie Mac |
58.42 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
17 |
15 |
| WM |
Washington Mutual |
39.13 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
21 |
14 |
| AJG |
Arthur J. Gallagher |
30.9 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
16 |
14 |
| SBC |
SBC Communication |
24.5 |
5.1 |
3.2 |
9 |
13 |
| PFE |
Pfizer |
35.6 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
19 |
13 |
| CTR |
Cato Corp. |
19.38 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
27 |
12 |
| RD |
Royal Dutch Petroleum |
49.01 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
2 |
12 |
| KMP |
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners |
41.48 |
6.6 |
6.2 |
16 |
11 |
| EXC |
Exelon |
31.45 |
3.5 |
2.3 |
9 |
11 |
| IBA |
Industrias Bachoco Sa |
9.45 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
12 |
11 |
| RVFD |
Riviana Foods |
25.3 |
4.0 |
2.8 |
10 |
11 |
| JNJ |
Johnson & Johnson |
54.52 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
14 |
10 |
| EQT |
Equitable
Resources |
46.78 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
10 |
10 |
| MRK |
Merck |
46.45 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
9 |
10 |
| FHN |
First
Horizon National |
45.3 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
14 |
10 |
| MSBK |
Main
Street Banks |
26.24 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
26 |
9 |
| MBHI |
Midwest Banc Holdings |
22.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
35 |
9 |
| GPT |
GreenPoint
Financial |
38.57 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
16 |
9 |
| CL |
Colgate-Palmolive |
55.75 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
10 |
9 |
| PBKS |
Provident
Bankshares |
28.37 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
16 |
8 |
| MO |
Altria |
49.88 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
9 |
8 |
| BAC |
Bank
of America |
80.2 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
13 |
8 |
| LBAI |
Lakeland Bancorp |
15.9 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
17 |
8 |
| ALL |
Allstate |
43.7 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
11 |
8 |
| WRI |
Weingarten Realty |
28.2 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
10 |
7 |
| CNL |
Cleco |
16.81 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
2 |
7 |
| BUSE |
First Busey A |
27.21 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
12 |
7 |
| ANZ |
Australia&NZ Bank |
62.77 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
13 |
7 |
| CINF |
Cincinnati Financial |
41.5 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
11 |
7 |
| ASN |
Archstone-Smith |
27.49 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
4 |
7 |
| WABC |
WestAmerica Bancorp |
48.58 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
14 |
7 |
| SLE |
Sara Lee |
22.95 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
6 |
7 |
| MCY |
Mercury General |
49.34 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
14 |
7 |
| FFIN |
First Financial Bankshares |
38.96 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
14 |
7 |
| CFBX |
Community First Bankshares |
32.27 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
15 |
6 |
| PII |
Polaris Industries |
42.79 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
11 |
6 |
| CF |
Charter One
Financial |
43.94 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
16 |
6 |
| SVM |
ServiceMaster |
11.55 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
5 |
6 |
| JPM |
J.P. Morgan
Chase & Co. |
35.66 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
7 |
6 |
| CAG |
ConAgra Foods |
28.53 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
10 |
6 |
| UL |
Unilever PLC ADR |
37 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
0 |
6 |
| NOVB |
North Valley
Bancorp |
16.013 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
20 |
6 |
| FMBI |
First Midwest
Bancorp |
33.15 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
10 |
6 |
| NST |
Nstar |
46.15 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
3 |
6 |
| ERIE |
Erie Indemnity A |
44.16 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
12 |
6 |
| IBOC |
International Bancshares |
53.19 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
23 |
6 |
| RBPAA |
Royal
Bancshares of PA A |
22.43 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
8 |
6 |
| PNY |
Piedmont Natural Gas |
39.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
5 |
5 |
| NFG |
Natl Fuel Gas |
25.15 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4 |
5 |
| FPL |
FPL Group |
61.6 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4 |
5 |
| AROW |
Arrow Financial |
29.9 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
12 |
5 |
| FUN |
Cedar Fair |
31.85 |
5.6 |
7.0 |
6 |
5 |
| CLX |
Clorox |
50.7 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
7 |
5 |
| CIN |
Cinergy |
36.04 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
0 |
5 |
| SBGA |
Summit Bank |
15.05 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
26 |
5 |
| WMK |
Weis Markets |
33.15 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2 |
5 |
| DOW |
Dow Chemical |
37.64 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3 |
5 |
| FTFC |
First Federal
Capital |
26.46 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
15 |
5 |
| ALFA |
Alfa |
13.39 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
7 |
5 |
| TSFG |
South Financial Group |
26.5 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
12 |
4 |
| PG |
Proctor & Gamble |
106.41 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
10 |
4 |
| GGP |
General Growth Properties |
26.37 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
4 |
4 |
| XOM |
ExxonMobil |
43.27 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
3 |
4 |
| CMTY |
Community Banks |
27.75 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
10 |
4 |
| WASH |
Washington
Trust Bancorp |
25.39 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
9 |
4 |
| PCBC |
Pacific Capital Bancorp |
35.1 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
8 |
4 |
| CVBF |
CVB Financial |
20.05 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
16 |
4 |
| SJM |
J.M. Smucker |
49.96 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
9 |
4 |
| ABM |
ABM Ind |
18.12 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
10 |
4 |
| BOH |
Bank of Hawaii |
42.26 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
6 |
4 |
| FLPB |
Leesport Financial |
22.06 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
7 |
4 |
| HE |
Hawaiin Electric |
46.14 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
0 |
4 |
| HSY |
Hershey Foods |
88.52 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
9 |
3 |
| MSEX |
Middlesex Water |
19.25 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
2 |
3 |
| BDG |
Bandag |
39.96 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3 |
3 |
| SECD |
Second
Bancorp |
29.57 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
10 |
3 |
| SJI |
S Jersey Ind |
40.7 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
2 |
3 |
| NJR |
New Jersey Resources |
37.7 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3 |
3 |
| BF.B |
Brown-Forman
B |
46.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
6 |
3 |
| ENSI |
EnergySouth |
35.07 |
3.4 |
4.3 |
6 |
3 |
| BLS |
Bell South |
25.57 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
2 |
3 |
| MRO |
Marathon Oil |
33.59 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
3 |
3 |
| UGI |
UGI Corp. |
30.72 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
3 |
3 |
| COP |
ConocoPhillips |
73.33 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
4 |
3 |
| SHW |
Sherwin-Williams |
37.12 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
7 |
2 |
| UBSH |
Union
Bankshares |
31.09 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
10 |
2 |
| CGI |
Commerce Group MA |
44.03 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3 |
2 |
| SLFI |
Sterling
Financial PA |
23.82 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
6 |
2 |
| ALE |
ALLETE |
32.95 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
2 |
1 |
| HBHC |
Hancock Holding |
26.09 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
6 |
1 |
| YORW |
York Water |
19.55 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
3 |
1 |
| K |
Kellog |
42.02 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
2 |
0 |
| WBKC |
Westbank |
21.681 |
2.5 |
4.1 |
5 |
0 |
| CVBK |
Central Virginia Bankshares |
28.35 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
6 |
-1 |
| DGICB |
Donegal Group B |
19.36 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
3 |
-1 |
| SFSW |
State
Financial Services |
28.75 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
2 |
-2 |
| UFCS |
United
Fire & Casualty |
52.5 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
3 |
-2 |
How Can You Take Advantage Of This Information?
With thousands of income-oriented stocks to choose from, it's often hard
for income investors to know where to start. The dividend table above,
which I will include in EVERY issue of my upcoming newsletter, should
assist you in your search for reasonably valued income stocks with
above-average, growing dividend yields. My proprietary model not only
narrows down the extensive investing universe to a select list of
superior income picks, but the ranking system also helps you sort out
the best of the bunch. Here are some items to look for when using the
table:
-- Focus in on the top 25 companies (highlighted in
yellow). Based on my model, these stocks should tend to outperform their
peers in the coming months. All other things being equal, investors
might want to accumulate these issues in the near term.
-- Look for companies that are moving up or down in the rankings. Stocks
that are moving up could represent compelling value plays. Meanwhile,
companies that are moving down in the rankings might have cut their
dividend payments, or their stocks might be richly valued relative to
historical norms.
-- Focus in on the bottom 25 companies (highlighted in gray). Based on
my model, these stocks are richly valued relative to their underlying
dividend characteristics. As such, they are likely to underperform their
peers going forward. All other things being equal, investors might want
to reduce their exposure to some of these names in the near term.
How Can We Be Sure That The Model Works?
Because I based both my initial screen and my proprietary scoring system
on time-tested fundamental principles, I'm confident that the dividend
model will outperform the broader market in the months and years ahead.
However, in order to make sure the model outperforms, each month I'm
going to track the average performance of the top 25 picks identified in
the table above. I'm then going to compare that performance against the
S&P 500, as well as an appropriate income-oriented benchmark. And
finally, because I think it's important to test whether the model is
effective in identifying income stocks that you might want to reduce
your exposure to, I'm also going to track the average performance of the
bottom 25 picks identified in the table above. I'll then compare their
performance to the S&P, as well as to that of the top 25 picks. As
long as the top 25 picks consistently outperform the bottom 25 by a
statistically significant margin, I will consider the model effective.
What Can You Expect To See?
Each month I'll present you with updated performance data, as well as
NEW lists of the top and bottom 25 companies identified by my dividend
model. Remember: These rankings change on a daily basis along with stock
prices. Therefore, as prices and yields shift in the coming weeks, the
top 25 companies identified by the model will change from month to month
as stocks move up and down in my rankings.
Reminder
Again, it's important to emphasize the fact that this is a strictly
quantitative model. Both the initial screen and my unique scoring system
are based entirely on raw, objective data. I do not take any other
fundamental factors into consideration and I do not make any subjective
judgments at any time. The fact that I hold to this strictly
quantitative approach is important, because if it succeeds in
identifying income stocks that outperform their peers in the months and
years ahead, then I'll be able to continually re-use this exact model to
identify other undervalued income plays in the future.
Please look for this proprietary dividend model, as
well as a host of other valuable income-oriented investment advice, in
the June 1st issue of my upcoming income newsletter. Check your inbox in
the coming weeks for further details!
|
Please Note: The above article was merely a
small excerpt from an issue of our premium income newsletter -- High-Yield
Investing. In each issue Carla Pasternak presents
a wealth of information and timely investment ideas to help you earn a
steady income stream from your investments. To receive a
complimentary three-week trial or to learn more about our High-Yield
Investing service, please visit the following link: http://www.StreetAuthority.com/subscribe.asp#hy |
|
11
Surprising Investment Predictions for 2009
A wind-powered car . . .
oil at $160 per barrel . . . a +200% to +300% rebound in shipping
stocks... a war fought over water . . . these are just a few of the
startling predictions that StreetAuthority
Market Advisor has just revealed for 2009. Each of these
developments will trigger explosive profits for investors in the coming
year. Click
here to see our full range of forecasts.
Income Security
of the Month -- January 2009
If you're looking for
high yields, monthly payments and unprecedented safety, then you need to learn more about our "Income
Security of the Month" for January 2009. This stable
preferred stock has a long
track record of paying some of the most dependable dividends in Wall
Street history. It pays a monthly dividend
totaling 9.9% annually
and has
outperformed the S&P 500 by more than +52% over the last
year.
|
The Top Stocks to Own Before
Obama Takes Office
Whenever
Washington decides to help a new industry get off the
ground, the investment profits follow in lockstep.
And a small group of 20 to 30 stocks is going to be flooded
with so much new government cash that our research team
believes a few of them could shoot up 40-to-1 in the next three or four
years. This group of investments was a good bet even
before Obama was elected . . . now it's a slam dunk.
Wall
Street Meltdown Creates Highest Dividend Yields in a Decade
The recent Wall Street crisis has created a once-in-a-lifetime
opportunity for investors like you to lock in high yields on safe, low-risk
stocks. Yields of 20.2% . . . 22.4% . . . even 33.1%!
Our new special report on the subject shows you SEVEN dividend superstars
that can help you rebuild your portfolio. Click
here to get your free copy of the report. |
|

6
Free Months of Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor
Learn the secrets of successful options trading from top trader,
Bernie Schaeffer. Start your free 6-month subscription to The Option
Advisor newsletter now and get free online access to Bernie's Crash
Course in Top Gun Trading Techniques.
3
Penny Stocks Poised to Soar 300%
By the time Wall Street notices the 3 picks revealed in this report,
you could be sitting on a fortune. Click
here to get immediate access to an exclusive Free report --
"3 Underground Penny Stocks Poised to Soar."
|
Investor's
Business Daily (IBD)
Get 10 Free Issues of Investor's Business Daily (IBD) – Plus 2
Free Weeks of Investors.com
Capture
22.8% Yields and +701.8% Gains with ETFs
Join exchange-traded fund (ETF) expert Nathan Slaughter's
"V.I.P. List" and get these three members-only benefits
for free --> 1.) Free ETF report revealing the 3 best ways to
profit from ETFs right now, 2.) Free 9-lesson course showing you how
to pick winning ETFs, 3.) Specific details on Nathan's favorite
individual ETFs for today's market.
|
|
|
|