In today's modern world, investors are armed with an abundance of tools designed to assist them with financial analysis and investment decisions. One such tool that often goes overlooked is the evaluation of insider trading patterns. By that, I'm referring not to stock trades made by unscrupulous people who attempt to exploit non-public information, but instead to legitimate transactions made by corporate executives, or insiders.

What is Insider Trading?
Let's begin with some basic definitions. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has characterized insiders as either a company's officers or directors, or outside shareholders who own more than 5% of the firm's outstanding shares. These large shareholders are typically institutional owners, such as mutual funds, endowments, pensions, or hedge funds. The SEC has established strict rules that govern insider trading activity among this group of investors. Among other things, these regulations stipulate that all insider stock trades must be reported in a timely manner.

Because they tend to be completely immersed in their company's day-to-day operations, corporate insiders often have intimate first-hand knowledge of their firm's financial performance. As such, if many of these corporate insiders are buying large blocks of shares in their own company on the open market, then that could serve as a positive signal that they believe their stock is undervalued. Alternatively, if a large number of corporate insiders are selling their company's stock, then that could serve as a warning sign of potential trouble ahead.

As a general rule, it's always best to know a company inside and out before becoming a part owner. A diligent investor should have a firm grasp on all aspects of a company's operations -- its customers, its suppliers, its competitive advantages, its potential weaknesses, etc. However, no matter how many hours of research you devote to the study of a particular company, the bottom line is that you are unlikely to truly understand a firm as well as its top executives. After all, these corporate insiders usually have access to a large amount of private sales data and are involved all aspects of the company's operations.

Why Is Insider Trading Important to Analyze?
When it comes to investing in their own company's shares, these insiders are no different than you and I -- it is in their best financial interest to buy low and sell high. With this in mind, insider purchases and sales can often provide important clues as to whether a particular company is performing well or is perhaps headed for hard times.

A host of market research has proven that insider trading patterns can indeed provide important clues about which direction a stock is headed in the coming months and years. A number of studies have demonstrated this by looking back at years of historical stock price data and discovering that upward price movements were often preceded by strong insider buying, and vice-versa. For example, a recent academic study demonstrated that stocks perform far better in the subsequent month after seeing a significant amount of insider buying.

Are Insider Trading Patterns Always Correct in Predicting Future Share Price Movements?
Although it can often provide us with important clues, insider trading activity is by no means a perfect predictor of future share price movements. After all, in some cases insider trades can have little predictive value. For example, a CEO may simply need to unload shares in his/her company to purchase a new home or to fund a college education. This should not be interpreted as a lack of faith on his/her part in the company's future prospects. Also, given that most insiders are already heavily invested in their firm's shares, stock sales are far more common than purchases. As such, they provide less insight into a company's operations. Finally, it is possible for a stock to move in the opposite direction from what insiders are predicting. Even knowledgeable executives can and do overestimate or underestimate their firm's business outlook.

Nevertheless, investors should put some credence in the behavior of a company's insiders, as their purchase and sale patterns have been shown to have strong predictive value. With that in mind, investors need to understand how to analyze insider activity.

When Evaluating Insider Trades, You Should Pay Particular Attention to the Following Factors...

Size of the purchase or sale:
A block of 10,000 shares may seem large to you or me, but it can be a relatively insignificant amount for an executive who owns 10 million shares. Therefore, when analyzing a particular trade, be sure to place the size of that trade in the proper context. The dollar or share amount in question should always be measured against the insider's current total holdings, and also compared to the size of previous purchases or sales made by that same person. For example, if an insider who routinely sells 1% of his/her total stake every now and then suddenly sells off 25% of his/her holdings, then that could represent a possible red flag that the company is headed for trouble.

It stands to reason that larger trades are placed with more confidence than smaller ones, and are therefore more revealing. If an executive is willing to invest a substantial amount of his/her annual salary in one large trade (or a series of trades), then this likely indicates greater optimism than a much smaller trade would imply. Market studies have confirmed the validity of this theory.

However, this knowledge is only useful up to a certain point. Extremely large transactions are likely to garner media attention, and this can often have a dramatic impact on share prices. If price fluctuations already reflect the insider activity, then the potential benefit of that insider information is already likely to have been lost.

Identity of the insider:
When looking at insider transactions, remember that some shareholders' decisions should carry more weight than others. For example, the trades placed by key officers such as CEO's, CFO's, and COO's are often the most telling. Meanwhile, those made by large institutional owners often have the least predictive value.

Obviously, a company's officers will generally have a deeper understanding of their firm's future direction. Not only will they possess better and more detailed information than the general public, but they should also have a better ability to analyze and draw more accurate conclusions from that data. By contrast, insiders that are not employees of the firm (such as institutional owners) merely have access to the same data that is available to the public. This may explain why the buying patterns of these insiders are less powerful in predicting a stock's future direction, particularly when compared to the firm's officers. Studies have concluded that investors should scrutinize the trades made by a company's top executives and place less emphasis on trades placed by large shareholders.

Size of the company:
Larger firms are typically followed by a group of equity analysts who monitor the company's every move. As such, the general public usually stays well informed about the financial health and growth prospects of large-cap firms. By contrast, smaller companies are usually not placed under the microscope of the analyst community. In addition, there is generally much less public information available on these smaller firms. With less data to assess the health of smaller companies, the decisions made by their insiders should obviously be watched more carefully.

With this in mind, the insider trading activity at a micro-cap firm can be quite useful in predicting the future direction of both the company and its share price. As a rule, smaller firms with positive insider activity tend to generally outperform larger firms in the same situation.

Consensus among insiders:
Sometimes, one insider may be selling while another is buying. In this scenario, it can be difficult to ascertain what the company's leaders are thinking. Therefore, it is always important to search for consensus among a group of insiders. One insider sale may not be very predictive, but if several insiders are moving in the same direction -- either buying or selling -- then that may be quite reflective of what's happening at the company. However, it is worth noting that new board members or officers are often required to purchase company stock. Obviously, these types of transactions contain no useful information and should be dismissed.

Sometimes, the lack of insider trading can be a positive sign in and of itself. In many cases, corporate executives already hold a sizeable stake in their company and will refrain from purchasing additional shares even if they have a very upbeat outlook. In these cases, a lack of corporate insider sales can be viewed as positive, particularly when it comes to a stock that has risen dramatically in price.

Putting it all Together:
Before we continue, here is a quick recap of what we have already discussed:

-- Stocks often perform better following a month of insider buying.
-- The activity of a company's officers is more instructive than that of other insiders.
-- The smaller the company, the more predictive its insider activity.
-- If several insiders are moving in the same direction, then this should be considered more revealing than the activity of a single insider.
-- Sales are more common than purchases and provide less insight into a company's operations.
-- Larger trades should be given more credence than smaller ones.
-- Inactivity should be taken as a positive sign when a stock is rising.

When all of these factors are carefully considered, insider trading activity can provide a window for investors to view how bullish a company's top managers are. However, even if you and the inner circle both reach the same conclusion, it may still take a while for all the pieces to fall in place. In the interim, the stock may suffer through a sharp decline.

Throughout my career, some of my most profitable investments did not materialize until after I had taken a second or third position in a stock (in some cases after it had dropped significantly from my original entry point). On that note, if you find a company attractive at a certain level, then it should only look better after a 30% drop -- assuming, of course, there have been no significant changes in the firm's underlying fundamentals and insiders have kept from selling. In that case, it may make sense to add to your original position, thereby reducing your cost basis and increasing your chances of earning a spectacular return.

Remember, nearly all inexpensive stocks have problems in one area or another; otherwise why on earth would they be cheap? Companies that are firing on all cylinders rarely trade at substantial discounts. Given this kind of contrarian approach, value investors should be prepared for a volatile ride. They should also be ready to take advantage of difficult market conditions, as erratic stock prices can often provide them with additional buying opportunities.

Every company has some intrinsic value -- even the ones that are executing poorly. The point is not to identify perfect companies, but instead to find the ones where a firm's share price has dropped significantly below its intrinsic value. This disconnect between value and price is what creates meaningful, above-average profit potential.

True value investing is not for the faint of heart, nor is it appropriate for those who seek immediate rewards. Let me share a quick personal story that illustrates the importance of being patient. Eighteen months ago, I purchased a classically cheap stock in a boring and troubled industry. The company, which competes in the declining, highly competitive global apparel industry, was struggling with a lack of customer diversity and was also facing a potential de-listing from the Nasdaq. As I stated earlier, however, even poorly performing companies can offer compelling value if the price is right -- and this one was a perfect example.

The company was a little known firm called Cygne Designs (CYDS.OB, $4.14), which I bought for the rock-bottom price of $0.23. Over the next year, the company's shares went essentially nowhere, even as other micro-cap stocks skyrocketed. Watching other stocks soar while mine remained overlooked was a frustrating experience. However, I ultimately tempered my emotion with a good dose of patience and learned the importance of portfolio diversification and sound money management.

CYDS was a classic Graham and Dodd investment, as the company was selling below its break-up value. The stock was ignored and unloved, but I was not about to give up.

Finally, the rest of the market saw the same intrinsic value that I did, and as of Friday's closing price the shares had climbed more than 17-fold to reach $4.14.

It may take considerable time for a company's true value to be unlocked, during which time you may feel a little foolish. Above all, though, value investors must trust their instincts and be patient. Wait until a stock reaches its fair value before you sell, and along the way be sure to practice good money management techniques. The behavior of irrational investors is often what causes stocks to become undervalued in the short term. Exploit their mistakes, and never let misplaced emotion impact your own bottom-line results.

-----------------------------

Important Note: The above article was merely a small excerpt from a recent issue we sent to subscribers of our premium value investing service -- Margin-of-Safety Investing. In each issue of that newsletter, editors Nathan Slaughter and Paul Tracy deliver an in-depth look at a variety of other deeply discounted stocks that should provide investors with a solid margin of safety at current prices. To receive your copy of our most recent issue of Margin-of-Safety Investing, as well as other guidance similar to this twice per month, you'll need to subscribe to this publication. To learn more, please visit:
https://www.streetauthority.com/subscribe-msi.asp

 

Income Security of the Month Our "Income Security of the Month" for July 2008 invests in a fast-growing overseas market that doesn't get much exposure in the mainstream financial press. And although it typically makes enormous annual dividend payments -- it has paid an average dividend of 24.9% per year over the past five years -- this fund is perhaps most appealing for its total return potential. Specifically, the fund has delivered total returns of +263.9% since 2003, and it ranks in the top 10% of its category over the past decade.

Top 10 Stocks for 2008! Since we began publishing this report back in 2003, the picks we've featured have consistently beaten the broader market -- delivering average gains of +21.3% per year and outperforming the S&P by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Act now to reserve your copy of our newest report -- Top Ten Stocks for 2008.

 

Success Trading -- 365 Days Without a Loss Success Trading Group scored 52 wins in 52 weeks! Get their weekend newsletters free.  High-Yield Investing If you're looking for both high yields and enormous capital gains, then you need to learn more about our "Income Stock of the Month."	Stephen Leeb's Market Forecast Receive a free ongoing, PhD level Wall Street education in how the markets work so that you can see into the future and position yourself accordingly. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) Get 10 Free Issues of Investor's Business Daily (IBD) – Plus 2 Free Weeks of Investors.com