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Marriott's Reputation for Quality Should Spur Steady Growth

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, Half-Priced Stocks

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Published:  July 13, 2007

With nearly 3,000 properties and over half a million rooms spread throughout 70 countries, Marriott (NYSE: MAR, $45.04) is one of the world's largest hotel management companies. From moderately-priced chains like Courtyard and Fairfield to the pampered luxury of Ritz-Carlton, Marriott's broad portfolio of brands has something for every traveler. However, the firm specializes primarily in attracting business groups.

Unlike many rivals, who are facing heavy capital expenditures to overhaul their properties and re-energize their brands, Marriott has already infused its hotels with fresh bedding and high-thread-count sheets. And many rooms have also been outfitted with high-definition TVs and the latest in connectivity technology for travelers with iPods and laptops.

This attention to detail has clearly begun to pay off. With a reputation for quality, Marriott hotels are currently seeing an 18% revenue per available room (RevPAR) premium to their closest competitors. And because many travelers prefer Marriott, the company has had great success at convincing hotel owners around the world to "re-flag" their properties to one of Marriott's brands. In fact, of the 23,000 rooms added to the Marriott system in 2006, almost 7,000 were conversions from competitors' chains.

And while the company continues to add tens of thousands of new units every year, it is also squeezing out more revenues per room, as the table below clearly shows:
 
Region Occupancy Average Daily Rate (ADR) RevPAR  RevPAR
Change from 2005
Latin America 73% $151 $110 +9.9%
Continental Europe 71% $151 $107 +10.2%
United Kingdom 75% $205 $154 +13.3%
Middle East/Africa 69% $135 $93 +10.3%
Asia Pacific 76% $130 $98 +11.2%
Ritz-Carlton Intl. 72% $242 $174 +9.1%
North America 73% $128 $93 +9.1%
Total Worldwide 73% $132 $96 +9.4%

As you can see, Marriott is enjoying healthy double-digit growth across many of its regions. Furthermore, more units, times higher revenues per unit, spells steady increases in the fees that the company collects from owners and franchisees:

  2003 2004 2005 2006
Incentive Fees $109M $142M $201M $281M
Franchise Fees $245M $296M $329M $390M
Base Mgmt. Fees $388M $435M $497M $553M
Total $742M $873M $1,027M $1,224M
YoY Growth N/A +17.7% +17.6% +19.2%

By leveraging its core brands and taking advantage of a favorable operating climate, Marriott has seen its fee-based income soar over the past three years. More importantly, operating cash flows have also been climbing, and earnings have jumped +70% to $1.66 per share. Of course, as Warren Buffett would remind us, today's investors receive nothing from yesterday's growth -- it's tomorrow that counts. And on that front, investors have plenty of reasons to be excited.

First, the Marriott Rewards program -- 26 million members strong -- gives the firm a growing base of loyal customers that can be counted on to continue booking frequent repeat visits. Second, the firm's web site, which guarantees the best rates at all Marriott properties, has repeatedly siphoned traffic away from other online travel sites. Revenues booked through this important distribution channel surged +35% last year to $4.3 billion.

The firm's busy development pipeline should be another key growth driver in the years ahead. Even in a weaker RevPAR environment, the company can look forward to an additional 85,000 to 100,000 new rooms over the next three years. That will bring the total number of system-wide units to more than 600,000 -- one-fifth of which will be located overseas.

While Marriott's domestic market share has doubled over the past decade to reach 10%, it controls less than 1% of the foreign lodging market -- leaving ample room for growth. China and India are particularly promising, as booming economic expansion in those countries is expected to usher in a new wave of leisure travel by an increasingly affluent middle-class.

Finally, the firm's timeshare -- or "vacation ownership" sales represent another avenue for growth. Marriott has been involved in this business for more than two decades and has grown to become a global leader, boasting 11,600 villas and more than 350,000 owners. Last year, the firm raked in almost $2 billion from timeshare sales in exotic locales like the Bahamas.

With all of this in mind, we think Marriott will continue to prosper over the next few years. As such, should the shares retreat from current levels, we think they are worth considering anywhere below $38 per share.

Good investing!



Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority

To receive in-depth guidance on today's leading value opportunities every other weekend, plus educational guidance, please subscribe to Nathan Slaughter & Paul Tracy's premium value investing newsletter -- Half-Priced Stocks
 

 


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