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| Digging
Beneath the Surface to Uncover Quality Value Stocks |
Published: March 29, 2005
Nearly everyone uses basic
valuation ratios to determine how much value a stock holds. Meanwhile, a
much smaller number are willing to devote the time to look beneath a
company's surface. However, those who do are often richly rewarded.
Let's assume your coworker just stumbled upon a new stock, which seems
to represent a compelling value considering it trades at a rock bottom
P/E of 8. The stock may indeed be a great find, but if simple screening
based on fundamental financial statistics was the only tool one needed
to become a great value investor, then everyone would be as rich as
Warren Buffett -- not a likely scenario.
Although running a screen for companies with low P/E ratios can be a
useful way to uncover new ideas, further research must be done to
determine a company's true value. Moreover, since everyone has access to
this type of screening data, it isn't going to help you earn exceptional
profits over the long haul.
What will help you, though, is to learn how to identify
important financial items that most other investors miss. With this in
mind, in today's guest article I'm going to discuss a few simple, yet
important tips that should give the diligent investor a distinct
advantage over Wall Street.
I won't cover techniques used to measure the quality of earnings or
other financial comparisons that must also be weighed, as these are
beyond the scope of this discussion. Rather, this article will provide
you with a brief introduction to some non-financial data that savvy
investors should examine first before making any investment.
This information can be found in a company's 10Q or 10K filing. It can
also be obtained free of charge at MSN, Yahoo, Edgar, or the company's
website. Best of all, I won't ask you to read through a company's entire
10K or 10Q financial reports -- for the purposes of this analysis it
simply isn't necessary.
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Keywords to Look for in a Company's Financial Reports
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Before placing a buy order for a particular stock, I strongly recommend
doing a few basic word searches on the company's most recent 10Q.
Investors who fail to perform these important background checks will
suffer the financial consequences. Although I will limit this article to
the introduction of just a few ideas -- customer concentration,
litigation risk, product diversity, real estate holdings, patent
protection, management compensation, and stock dilution -- I will share
more information in the future if readers express an interest.
Keyword Search #1 -- Customer Concentration
Inside a firm's most recent 10Q -- which all publicly traded companies
are required to file quarterly – you should use your web browser (in
Microsoft Explorer, choose the "Edit" option from the top
menu, then select "Find on this Page") to search for the
keyword "customers". For some companies, the search may reveal
a section in the filing called "concentration of credit risks and
major customers." What we are trying to determine in this search is
whether the firm derives a disproportionate percentage of revenue from
just a handful of major customers, or possibly even a single source.
Firms whose revenues are tied to a small number of customers may not be
bargains -- regardless of their valuation levels.
Obviously, a high degree of customer concentration represents
substantial risk for a company. American Locker Group (ALGI, $5.63)
provides a perfect case study. The stock was recently selling for
$16.00, and based on most common valuation metrics ALGI looked cheap at
that level -- very cheap. The company had a great product, positive cash
flow, a great balance sheet, a single-digit P/E, an established
operating history -- what else could you want? The company's press
releases were always upbeat, highlighting its great financial results.
However, performing a search on the key word "customer" in
ALGI's latest 10Q would have uncovered the fact that more than half of
the firm's revenue over the past four years has been generated by a
single customer -- the U.S. Postal Service. Unfortunately for investors,
ALGI recently lost its USPS contract. Not surprisingly the stock was
quickly battered, eventually losing more than half of its value. Now,
the very survival of this company has been called into question. Those
investors who simply focused on the company's financial statements and
positive press releases and overlooked customer concentration would have
incurred severe losses here.
Keyword Search #2 -- Litigation Risk
A company's legal picture is also worth a closer examination. When a
firm releases its quarterly earnings, it seldom divulges much
information regarding current litigation or off balance sheet risk.
Astute investors should dig deeper by searching for the word
"litigation" in the most recent 10Q. In most cases you'll
simply need to read a few paragraphs to find out if the company is
facing significant future legal entanglements. Litigation could take the
form of patent infringements, shareholder lawsuits, environmental
violations, employee lawsuits, etc.
There are plenty of real-world examples of companies whose stocks have
been kept in check (or in some cases crippled) by legal setbacks,
ranging from tiny value plays like GameTech Intl. (GMTC, $3.25) to
blue-chip giants like Altria (MO, $63.72). Some otherwise solid
companies have even been forced into bankruptcy. A quick search for
"litigation" will prevent the unwary investor from falling
victim to a company whose future obligations are not recorded in any
financial statements, but are instead buried somewhere inside the 10Q.
This simple check will help you avoid this common pitfall.
Keyword Search #3 -- Product Diversity
Does the expression "one-trick pony" define your stock? Many
companies are overly reliant upon a single product for the majority of
their revenues. If you have your sights set on such a company, then you
should carefully weigh this dependence while evaluating its other
credentials. For example, many software companies market just one niche
product, whose runaway success may soon invite competitors into the
market. These new players may be able to duplicate the functionality of
this one successful product -- possibly at a lower cost.
Anytime a firm relies almost entirely on a single product, it runs the
risk of facing contracting margins or falling market share -- if not
outright obsolescence -- whenever competition escalates or a better
product emerges. Therefore, take a few minutes to assess a firm's
product and revenue diversity.
Keyword Search #4 -- Real Estate Holdings
A company's real estate holdings are almost never disclosed -- except
deep within its SEC filings. A quick search for "real estate"
or "properties" will reveal, for instance, whether the company
leases or owns its properties. Remember, real estate is carried at its
historical cost basis on the balance sheet, not its market value. For
that reason, you may be able to uncover whether a prospective company
owns valuable hidden real estate assets, or perhaps is instead saddled
with off balance sheet liabilities from various long-term leases.
Keyword Search #5 -- Patent Protection
Another quick search that may be useful -- particularly for investors
looking at biotech or pharmaceutical firms -- is for
"Patents". Patents provide companies with a certain degree of
protection from the encroachment of competitors, and are usually
recorded as an intangible asset on a firm's balance sheet. Skim through
the search results to see if you can gather more information on the
firm's patents. Are the company's products or ideas protected? Is a key
patent set to expire soon? These types of questions may provide better
insight into the merits of an investment idea.
Keyword Search #6 -- Management Experience & Compensation
Next, I always conduct a thorough background check of the compensation
and experience of a firm's senior management team. Much of this
information can be routinely found by checking the firm's profile on
Yahoo Finance. Additional information can also be found at Reuters.
To begin, I take a look at each officer's compensation to ensure that it
is commensurate with the size of the company. Excessive salaries can be
a warning flag that management's interests aren't aligned appropriately
with shareholders', particularly if the company has been performing
poorly. With this in mind, I am always interested to see if there is an
equity incentive plan in place that aligns an executive's interests with
those of shareholders.
Aside from compensation, I also find the bios of senior management to be
enlightening. Is a manager's prior experience directly related to the
company's industry? Does he/she have a successful track record in the
sector with other companies? What other credentials or accomplishments
does he/she bring to the table? I would also advise taking a few minutes
to track down the investment banking firm that took the company public
-- was it a reputable firm, or was it a more questionable underwriter?
Keyword Search #7 – Stock Dilution
Finally, I strongly encourage a 10Q search for the word
"dilution". Dilution occurs whenever a company increases its
number of shares outstanding. Increasing share counts can be the result
of generous stock options, preferred stock offerings, the issuance of
convertible debt, equity-funded acquisitions, etc. A certain amount of
dilution is commonplace, and is often easily combated with stock
repurchase programs.
However, if a firm's shares outstanding show a repeated pattern of
substantial increases, then I would advise caution. After all, what good
are buckets of cash if excessive dilution is watering down your stake in
the company and reducing the value of your ownership? Terms such as
"warrants", "preferred stock", "redeemable
preferred", "options in the money", and "convertible
debt" are all possible hiding places for future dilution. Companies
that rely heavily on this kind of financing could pose problems to the
common shareholder.
Other key 10Q search words include the following:
"Acquisition"
"Backlog"
"Competition"
"Convertible"
"Deferred Tax"
"Dependence"
"Risks"
"Strategy"
Diversification is Critical
Okay, so let's say you have now done your homework by digging beneath
the surface of a company's SEC filings. Let's also assume that
everything checks out well and you still find the stock attractive. It
now becomes essential to put that information to work by applying proper
money management techniques.
The effective use of prudent money management is an integral part of
constructing a winning portfolio. Every professional card player is
aware that having a firm grasp of probability is essential, yet is only
the first step to making money. Regardless of the knowledge at your
disposal, you simply can't win every hand played. The key is to not only
enter the game when the odds look favorable, but to also effectively
manage your bankroll to weather the down times so that when things do
turn around, you will still be around to reap the profits.
Investing is similar in many respects. We can put the odds on our side
with solid research, but there is still an undeniable element of risk
that remains. Just like a good card player, no investor wins every day,
week, month or even year. We can learn something from successful
gamblers -- investors must not only utilize sound stock selection
techniques, but must also combine that methodology with effective money
management.
With this in mind, when putting together a winning portfolio I always
broadly diversify among a number of carefully selected investment ideas.
Instead of concentrating my assets among a handful of stocks, I only
commit a modest percentage of my overall portfolio to any one position.
By doing so, I like to think that I'm planting numerous seeds that will
eventually grow into a very productive farm.
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Today's New Micro-Cap Investing Ideas:
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As a group, micro-cap companies with a value-oriented tilt have posted
significant gains over the last two years. Therefore, valuations in this
sector are generally quite inflated from the levels seen just a couple
of years ago. Furthermore, there are no perfect companies, and many of
the ideas I present will exhibit weakness in one regard or another.
Nevertheless, despite this cautious approach, I'm still very optimistic
that my carefully researched selections will continue to significantly
outperform all the market averages. Below you will find an analysis of
three promising micro-cap candidates...
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JLM Couture (JLMC, $3.26)
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JLM Couture makes upscale bridal gowns, bridesmaid gowns, and related
accessories. The company markets its bridal wear through several lines,
including Lazaro, Valenta, Occasions, Couture, and the more affordable
Visions. Its gowns are widely available in bridal departments throughout
traditional department stores in both the U.S. and overseas, and can
also be found in the pages of bridal catalogs or online at one of the
company's five websites.
JLM's financials have been trending lower over the past few quarters.
The firm's net income was cut in half last year on sales that slid -8%
to $24.6 million. However, brides tend to purchase their wedding gowns
up to a year in advance, so much of the falloff can be attributed to
earlier economic and labor uncertainty. On that front, the economy has
since showed some major improvement, and this should help sales going
forward.
Nevertheless, the company's future sales may be crimped by a nationwide
trend towards simpler, scaled-back wedding ceremonies. Perhaps the most
troubling issue surrounding the company is CEO Joseph Murphy's $436,000
annual salary, which seems excessive given the size of the company and
its poor performance of late.
Still, JLM looks intriguing as a possible takeover candidate. I wouldn't
be surprised to see this company either go private for a premium or get
swallowed up by a larger retailer or apparel maker.
From a financial perspective, JLM has much to offer. The firm's balance
sheet is clean, with no potential for dilutive effects from warrants,
convertible securities, etc. Furthermore, the company's shareholder
equity has been on the rise lately, and last year it generated more than
$327,000 in free cash flow. JLM also has a healthy $3.84 per share in
working capital (current assets – current liabilities) on the books.
Finally, the company threw off $9.5 million in gross profits last year
on sales of $24.6 million (gross margin of 39%), which translates to a
relatively cheap trailing price/sales ratio of just 0.26. The company is
also trading at a substantial discount to its book value of $4.28. With
management owning a 40% stake in the company, and Fidelity (the largest
institutional owner) holding another 10%, taking the company private
should be fairly clean and easy.
Given the negative investor sentiment that surrounds the stock in the
wake of its most recent quarterly results, we are going to take
advantage by establishing a position. Further, we also plan to
capitalize on any future weakness in the stock by adding to our
holdings.
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Immucell (ICCC, $4.34)
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Immucell is a biotechnology company that develops and manufactures
diagnostic testing equipment for veterinarians and livestock owners in
the beef and dairy industries. The company's products help test for and
protect against infectious diseases. Last December, it got the green
light from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE, $26.17) to proceed with a
product development and marketing agreement for Mast-Out -- a treatment
for lactating dairy cows.
The beauty of Mast-Out is that milk from cows undergoing the treatment
might still be viable. By contrast, regulatory requirements stipulate
that milk produced from cows undergoing other treatments must be
discarded. Pfizer's interest came with a $1.5 million up-front payment,
which Immucell will use to develop the product. Mast-Out will begin to
undergo efficacy trials this year. If they prove successful, then Pfizer
will hold a long-term license to roll out the treatment worldwide.
Immucell is not a value stock in the strictest definition, but does look
attractive relative to other biotech stocks. The company has remained
profitable since posting a modest loss of $0.04 per share in 1998. It
also boasts a spotless balance sheet, with zero debt and $4.3 million
($1.46/share) in cash. Board member Johnathan Rothshild owns about 14%
of the company, and Fidelity is the largest institutional holder, with a
2% stake. With a promising new treatment potentially on the horizon, we
believe that this small, well-managed biotech has a bright future ahead
of it.
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Scott's Liquid Gold (SLGD, $0.54)
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Scott's is a distributor of beauty care and household products. The
company is probably best known for its flagship Liquid Gold brand -- a
wood preservative and cleaner that has been around for more than thirty
years. However, the company derives the majority (around 60%) of its
revenues from the sale of skin care products -- a venture the company
first entered in 1992 through the acquisition of Neoteric Cosmetics.
Scott's recent financial results leave room for improvement. After
reaching a plateau in the $24.5 million range over the past few years,
sales actually dropped about -8% last year to $22.6 million. Meanwhile,
net losses more than quadrupled from $190,000 to $900,000. Much of the
bottom-line weakness stems from the de-leveraging of manufacturing
costs, which have been spread over a smaller number of units as the
firm's sales volumes have contracted. The decision to drop prices to
spur holiday sales promotions also cut into margins. With both volume
and pricing on the decline, every product line reported lower gross
profits last year.
Despite the weak recent performance, I still think Scott's is well
positioned for future growth. The company is actively working to expand
the retail presence of its Montagne Jeunesse line, and redoubling
efforts to increase sales of its core Alpha Hydrox skin care products
and namesake Scott's Liquid Gold. Furthermore, the company is also
considering the development of new niche products and the utilization of
its manufacturing capabilities by making private label products for
others through joint ventures.
In the meantime, the company trades at attractive price/book and
price/sales ratios of just 0.36 and 0.25, respectively -- both well
below industry norms. Additionally, last year's gross income was more
than double the current market cap, and the company has been free cash
flow positive for the last three years. Also, by searching for
"properties" in the most recent 10K filing, I discovered that
Scott's appears to own 16.2 acres of land in Denver, comprised of three
connected buildings and a parking garage. I will have to explore
further, but this property could have substantial value relative to the
company's tiny $5 million market cap.
If Scott's can find a way to reverse its slumping sales and begin to
show some sustainable growth rates, then the company may prove to be a
promising turnaround candidate. Even if operations continue to slide
lower, though, I'm hopeful that SLGD may be an acquisition target for a
larger company. A sale of the firm's land could also unlock value for
shareholders. At this point, the future is unclear, but I believe a
small position at current prices could be very rewarding.
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Important Note: The above article
was merely a small excerpt from a recent issue we sent to subscribers of
our premium value investing service -- Margin-of-Safety
Investing. In each issue of that newsletter, editors Nathan
Slaughter and Paul Tracy deliver an in-depth look at a variety of other deeply discounted
stocks that should provide investors with a solid margin of safety at
current prices. To receive your copy of our most recent issue of Margin-of-Safety
Investing, as well as other guidance similar to this twice per
month, you'll need to subscribe to this publication. To learn more,
please visit:
https://www.streetauthority.com/subscribe-msi.asp
Thanks for reading!
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Nathan Slaughter
Editor
Half-Priced Stocks, The ETF Authority
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