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MSCI Taiwan iShares (EWT)

 

By Nathan Slaughter
Editor, The ETF Authority

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Published:  August 23, 2004

The iShares MSCI Taiwan Fund (EWT) is an international exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds a basket of 104 companies and is meant to represent the movement of the Taiwanese Stock Market.

If it's an international ETF, then it must be a Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) fund, as the company publishes numerous international indices. There are a few non-MSCI international funds, but the sum total of their average daily volume amounts to less than 350,000 shares. (By comparison, EWT has averaged more than 400,000 shares traded per day this year.) All of the single country specific ETFs are based on MSCI indices.

The Taiwanese currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar (USD). Because of this, fluctuations in the exchange rate are not an issue when it comes to this fund's returns. Of course, there is always risk that Taiwan could revalue (increase the value) or devalue (lower the value) its currency. In the first case, that would be bullish for EWT in dollar terms, as it would mean that U.S. investors would get more dollars for their current holdings. The second case would have the opposite effect. However, neither event is likely in the foreseeable future.

Interestingly, the MSCI Taiwan iShares are not highly correlated with the MSCI Hong Kong iShares (EWH). The correlation between the two funds is just 56%, which is well under EWT's 61% correlation with the Nasdaq Composite. EWH has a fairly large real estate component, while EWT has more than 50% of its value invested in technology-oriented issues. The fund's largest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), which accounts for a full 12.14% of EWT.

It is worth noting that the Taiwan iShares are more volatile than most other funds. This is because the Taiwanese stock market is quite volatile. Taiwan, although not truly a developing country, sometimes trades as if it was one. The country's economy was susceptible to the so-called 1997 "Asian Contagion," when many Asian stock markets fell sharply due to a currency crisis. There is also always political risk vis-à-vis China, which claims Taiwan is still part of the mainland.

MSCI Taiwan iShares (EWT)
Type: Sector
Similar funds: MSCI Hong Kong iShares (EWH)
MSCI Japan iShares (EWJ)
MSCI Malaysia iShares (EWM)
Options?: No
Performance Data
52-week High: $13.43 3/4/2004 Annualized return since:
52-week Low: $9.51 7/26/2004 One-year -1.59%
YTD Return: -6.67% (as of 7/30/2004) Three-year 4.54%
Five-year N/A
Dividends: $0.45   past 12-mos Life of fund* -12.03%
Expense: 0.74% * - Started trading 6/23/00
Correlation Data* (1/02/02-7/30/04) Holdings* (as of 7/31/2004)
Dow Jones Industrials 54.6% Taiwan Semi  (TSM) 12.14%
S&P 500 56.6% United Microelec (UMC) 5.95%
Nasdaq Composite 60.9% Cathay Fincl (CHYYY)** 4.30%
Nasdaq-100 59.5% Hon Hai Precision (HNHPF)** 4.11%
Nan Ya Plastic 3.98%
EWH 56.2% China Steel (CISXF)** 3.58%
EWJ 57.3% Mega Fincl (CTBFF)** 3.13%
EWM 28.8% Formosa Plastic 2.96%
Chinatrust Fincl 2.66%
China Development Fincl 2.60%
* Percent top ten are of total 45.41%
** Pink Sheets (very illiquid)
Average Daily Volume Average Daily Price Range
Jul-04 402,352 Jul-04 2.5%
2004 YTD 621,575 2004 YTD 2.8%
2003 293,165 2003 2.9%
* - Correlation measures how closely the two items track each other * Includes prior day's close (true range)

HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN EWT THIS YEAR
The Taiwan iShares now shows potential to push up towards $11.50 to $12.00 in the coming month. Unfortunately, the fund's larger bear market is not yet over. As such, I expect EWT to drop to a low near $8.50 during the first half of 2005.

 

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