2 Stocks Set To Profit From A Growing Industry

You wouldn’t know it from the headlines about obesity, but Americans spend a lot of time and money on fitness — and that spending is rising every year. The aging of America, which eventually could be a drag on the fitness segment as the Baby Boom population gets extremely old, is still a net positive: doctors increasingly insist that seniors stay active, driving demand for athletic shoes and apparel from folks well into their 70s. Spending on athletic and sports clothing rose about 13% from 2009 through 2014, for example — and faster-growing segments, such as women’s activewear, are booming.

Here are two ways to play the trend:

#-ad_banner-#​Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) is the world’s largest athletic-shoe retailer, with more than 3,400 stores in 23 countries as well as a robust online-retail business. In addition to its flagship brands (Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker and Kids Foot Locker), Foot Locker operates under the Champs Sports, Footaction, SIX: 02, Runners Point, Sidestep and Eastbay brands.

What’s remarkable about Foot Locker is that it’s growing so rapidly, 42 years after its founding. Sales are growing at 5% to 7% annual rate, thanks to annual increases in sales per square foot (a key retail metric), while earnings are still in the double-digit range. And the company is operating more effectively, too: its profit margin and return on invested capital has more than doubled over the past five years. Retail experts credit the company with investing in modernization rather than resting on its laurels (which could result in tired, boring stores in dead-end malls). Foot Locker has focused on upgrading customer experience in stores, differentiating and clarifying its brand platforms and expanding into higher-growth areas, geographically and online.

In its most recent quarter, the company reported earnings above Wall Street’s estimate, with revenue rising 5% vs. the year-earlier period. Comparable-store sales rose 7.9%, a sign of the robust demand for athletic shoes and apparel even in a slow-growth economy.

The company has an experienced and respected management team and a solid balance sheet, with moderate debt serviced by strong cash flow.

The stock trades at only 13.5 times analysts’ consensus estimate for earnings per share for fiscal 2016 (ends January 2017), yet the company’s earnings are expected to grow 10% to 12% annually over the next five years. That’s a bargain for this well-run growth company with the wind in its sails.

Under Armour (NYSE: UA) has a simple, rather brilliant mission statement: “To make all athletes better through passion, design and the relentless pursuit of innovation.” The company’s scrappy energy reminds me of Nike’s early years, before the pioneering running-shoe maker became a global sporting goods giant, with all the complications that come with size and scope.

In many ways, Under Armour is the Nike of the 21st century: a consumer fitness-goods company that started with specific innovations for high-level athletes. In 1996, Kevin Plank, a former fullback on the University of Maryland football team, found that t-shirts using synthetic fibers wicked moisture and kept football players cooler and more comfortable than cotton t-shirts. He gave his prototypes to friends in the NFL and then perfected the concept using microfiber.

Within a few years, Under Armour had become the playing apparel of choice in college and pro football, and the company started making products for other sports soon after — and selling to the general public, aided by innovative marketing and advertising that includes high-profile celebrity endorsers such as Tom Brady, Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Spieth and Steph Curry. The company now sells a wide range of apparel and shoes for many sports, seasons and uses. Sales have grown from $17,000 in 1996 to $3.96 billion in 2015 — and even more impressively, net revenue has grown at a rate above 20% for 23 consecutive quarters. So this is a maturing company, but very much remains a growth stock.

To keep it that way, Under Armour’s management has successfully expanded into athletic shoes — nearly doubling revenue from that area in the past year. The company also has moved aggressively to participate in the newest phase of fitness apparel: connectivity. Through acquisitions and research & development, Under Armour now has several business lines that include fitness apps and is incorporating them with its products. Engaging with its customers over social media, through app connections, also helps the company retain customers and cross-market them other products. The company recently boasted of having 150 million users in its networks.

At recent levels, Under Armour shares trade at a P/E-to-growth-rate ratio of around 2.5, which is expensive but understandable given the company’s impressive track record and the potential for growth of its shoe lines and connectivity products. The stock trades well below its 52-week high of $105.89, which is a reasonable short-term price target.

Risks to Consider: Both companies depend on consumer discretionary spending, so a decrease in consumer confidence about the economy could hurt sales. Under Armour is a high-growth, high-P/E stock, which makes it vulnerable to earnings disappointments or estimate decreases.    

Action to Take: Buy Foot Locker under $67 and Under Armour under $86.

P.S. Everyone knows that dividend payers crush other stocks. It’s not a matter of opinion. You can just look at the stats. But what’s really interesting is why they do so much better. We’ve found the answer here.

This article was originally published on TopStockAnalysts.com : 2 Stocks Set To Profit From A Growing Industry