This Cash Generator Has A Growing Dividend And 60% Upside

Most great businesses have one thing in common: cash.

Far from simply not hurting for it, they’ve typically got plenty on the balance sheet. They generally have healthy free cash flow, too.

#-ad_banner-#​For investors, a great way to gain exposure to these things is through the insurance industry. Insurance can be a fantastic cash generator because premiums tend to go up regularly, leading to a more consistent revenue stream and steady growth of profits.

Still, insurance companies face risk, mainly from having to pay out so much for claims that their cash position and bottom line suffers. But that’s not as big a concern for the industry’s middlemen — insurance brokerages — because they’re not underwriters or payers. Rather, their main job is connecting customers with insurers and for this they collect commissions and fees.

The insurance brokerage I prefer is one of the top two in the United States, as well as a leading provider of human resources, management and economics consulting services. It has an extremely tough competitor in main rival Aon Hewitt Plc (NYSE: AON), with both firms offering high-level expertise, generating industry-leading revenues and boasting strong cash flows and margins.

However, Marsh & McLennan Co., Inc. (NYSE: MMC) has the edge, in my opinion, because it’s not as highly leveraged. Indeed, the firm’s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.4 is in line with the industry average and noticeably lower than Aon Hewitt’s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.7.

No, it’s not a massive divergence. But it should translate to a meaningful difference in how much Marsh & McLennan can devote to dividends and business expansion instead of debt service. In fact, the firm is already the better dividend payer and has maintained or raised its payout every year since 2006. At current stock prices — about $52.45 for MMC and $87.75 for AON — Marsh & McLennan clearly has a more attractive yield.

Dividends Per Share – MMC Vs. AON
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Past
12 Months
Current
Yield
MMC $0.51 $0.76 $0.80 $0.80 $0.81 $0.86 $0.90 $0.96 $1.12 2.1%
AON $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 $0.62 $0.53 $1.00 1.1%

 

Despite the challenging economy, Marsh & McLennan is maintaining good organic growth, which has averaged about 3% in recent quarters. Overall revenue growth has been similarly steady, rising about 4% annually during the past four years to the current $12.6 billion a year.

Risk and insurance services, the segment that handles brokerage, remains the top revenue source. In Q2, for instance, it brought in $1.8 billion — 55% of the firm’s $3.3 billion total and a 6% year-over-year increase. Among the segment’s customers are small- and mid-size businesses, public entities, associations and private clients. Besides insurance brokerage, it also provides risk assessment/management, reinsurance and actuarial services.

Recently, Marsh & McLennan has seen noticeably faster growth in its consulting segment, which pursues the same sorts of customers as risk and insurance services but with different offerings such as advice on employee benefits, retirement and investments. In Q2, consulting generated revenue of $1.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year gain, and net income jumped an impressive 21% to $247 million.

In coming quarters, consulting could keep outperforming because of a renewed focus on health care. The segment lagged competitors in this area for several years because it was slower to jump on opportunities related to the Affordable Health Care Act.

However, thanks to its Mercer subsidiary, consulting is now gaining traction as a leading authority on the health care exchanges established by Obamacare. For instance, the Mercer Marketplace online exchange currently supports 67 employers with 282,000 members, mainly helping these individuals navigate the health care exchanges.

What’s more, in March Mercer announced a partnership with California-based GetInsured, an established online portal designed to help businesses and consumers research and buy a wide range of healthcare products and services. Among these are health savings accounts, medical procedures and health plans, including those offered through Obamacare. The partnership is a prime opportunity for Mercer to position itself as an Obamacare expert with the general public.

Marsh & McLennan is also set for expansion in international markets, which already account for half the firm’s top line. Among the best-performing regions so far are Latin America and Asia-Pacific, where revenues climbed 16% and 9%, respectively, in Q2.

As in the past, management will pursue international growth through acquisitions, like the majority stake soon to be obtained in Semusa, a leading Panamanian insurance broker with 75,000 clients. In June, the firm said it would buy a one-third stake in Alexander Forbes, one of South Africa’s top retirement, investment and employee benefits consulting firms. Marsh & McLennan has made about 40 acquisitions, domestically and internationally, since 2009.

As the firm’s footprint progressively expands, it should be able to meet consensus estimates for 12%-a-year earnings growth. This implies about 60% upside for its stock during the next five years at the projected price-to-earnings ratio of 19.

With a payout ratio of just 39%, $2.3 billion in cash on its balance sheet and $1.4 billion of free cash flow, Marsh & McLennan has plenty of room for dividend raises and should at the very least maintain its current dividend yield. Thus, the payout could easily rise 10% a year to $1.81 a share in 2019 from $1.12 today.

Risks to Consider: Marsh & McLennan’s businesses are closely correlated with the economy and employment. Company performance is apt to decline in weak economies, analysts at Morningstar warn.

Action to Take –> All in all, Marsh & McLennan operates in relatively low-risk areas. However, they all require a great deal of expertise, which facilitates client retention as long as execution is strong. Marsh & McLennan fits the bill. Along with a smaller debt load, this should translate to steady profits and cash flow, making the firm’s stock a top choice for those seeking reliable growth and income.

Robust growth and free cash flow are the marks of a healthy company, like MMC, which could trigger the Alpha Trader system. This system assigns stocks an “Alpha Score” — from 0 to 100 — and is able to tell exactly which stocks are about to jump double or triple-digits days, weeks, and even months before it happens. It’s already flagged 71 stocks that gained 10% or more in just two weeks. To find our more information about the stocks flashing buy right now, click here.