Profit As These Tech Giants Gobble Up New Growth

No matter how you slice it, $50 billion is a big number. That’s how much money Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) is rumored to be prepared to pay to acquire Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM), a fast-growing provider of customer relationship management software.

Why on earth would Oracle make such a bold move? Because it has hit a growth wall. Oracle’s sales are on track to grow just 1%-to-2% in fiscal (May) 2015 and 2016. Acquiring Salesforce.com would instantly boost the top line by nearly 20%.

#-ad_banner-#More importantly, it would enable Oracle’s sales force to peddle existing products to the customers doing business with Salesforce.com. And it would open the door for Salesforce’s team of sales reps to open up new leads for its customers. “Cross-selling” as they say in industry parlance.

Frankly, Oracle isn’t alone. Many large tech companies are facing limited organic growth prospects, and they are using their bulletproof balance sheets to rejuvenate their business platforms.

These large companies have already proven their desire to grow through acquisitions: According to Reuters, about 60% of tech mergers and acquisitions (M&A) volume over the past five years is represented by five acquirers: Facebook, Inc. (Nasdaq: FB), Google, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG), Oracle, Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) and SAP SE (NYSE: SAP).

The first two are not hurting for growth, but instead are taking steps now to ensure that growth doesn’t slow in a few years. The latter three are largely spinning their wheels these days, absent deal-making.

A move by Oracle may act as a catalyst that really gets the M&A ball rolling in the tech sector. According to a recent survey conducted by the 451 Group, 61% of respondents, mostly investment bankers and tech dealmakers, expect acquisition activity to accelerate over the next six months, while just 9% think it will slow.

According to a 2014 study conducted by accounting firm Deloitte & Touche, tech companies pursue “M&A to move into new markets, fill product/solution gaps and accelerate research and development (R&D) initiatives… As markets continue to mature and evolve, we expect to see continued M&A driven by consolidation.”

What would they pay?
Pegging a potential takeout value can be tricky. The average tech sector buyout valued at more than $10 billion has been priced at 15 times trailing EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But that multiple can sometimes be much higher. Salesforce.com, for example, is currently valued at roughly 80 times EBITDA. Oracle, if the rumors are to be believed, wants Salesforce for its growth-inducing catalysts, not for its current cash generation.

You can look to recent M&A activity to get a sense of future deals. For example, as Wi-Fi networks come to play a huge role in national communications networks, the Wi-Fi hardware vendors are now being gobbled up. In March 2015, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) announced plans to acquire Aruba Networks, Inc. (Nasdaq: ARUN) for $2.7 billion, valuing the company at three times projected fiscal (July) 2016 sales.

That deal has shifted attention to Ruckus Wireless, Inc. (NYSE: RKUS), which just announced tepid Q1 results, but appears poised for accelerating growth as Wi-Fi deployments build a head of steam in the years ahead. Ruckus is currently valued at two times projected 2016 sales.

Another key emerging M&A theme: cloud computing.

More and more, corporate activities (both internally among employees and externally with clients) are taking place on off-site servers, many of which are expected to handle a multitude of highly-complex tasks in a very rapid fashion. The leading tech companies of the past decade are finding that they need to go out and acquire a cloud presence that can give them instant cachet and expertise.

“As cloud services become the center of competition in many IT market segments, it is critically important for incumbent IT suppliers to get more ‘cloud DNA’ into their organizations and to accelerate the growth of their cloud services platforms and customer bases,” note analysts at Deloitte.

Investors seem to almost assume that cloud companies such as Splunk, Inc. (Nasdaq: SPLK) and Tableau Software, Inc. (Nasdaq: DATA) are prime targets. Both of these firms are valued at more than 10 times projected sales, which might seem rich in the context of broader industry multiples. But you can bet that companies like Oracle, Microsoft, SAP and others will consider the merits of acquiring a firm like this in coming quarters anyway.

Willing sellers
Tech companies are like sharks. They must keep moving forward or they will die. So when a firm finds that its growth has stalled out, a willingness to sell out to a larger player may be the wisest exit strategy. That’s especially true if shares are well off of their highs, and key shareholders have started to get anxious. And that dynamic may become especially pronounced in the social media sector.

Take Yelp, Inc. (NYSE: YELP) as an example. The recommendation-focused search site retains a powerful presence in its niche, but hasn’t been able to generate the torrid growth that management had been previously promising. If management was rescued by a $60 a share buyout offer, then they would be awfully tempted to take the bait. 

Now that Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) and LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) have stumbled badly after delivering recent quarterly results, they may also soon find themselves involved in M&A discussions.

Risks To Consider: Buyout rumors don’t always pan out. Never buy a stock based on such an expectation. Instead, think of M&A as one of several potential catalysts for upside.

Action To Take –> Here’s a not-so-bold prediction: a lot of today’s most actively-trading tech stocks won’t be public a year from now. In the context of surging tech M&A, it’s wise to add some quality businesses that have recently been heavily discounted to your portfolio. The key is to focus on companies with sizable market share within their niche, but emerging constraints against forward growth prospects.

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