A Potential 30% Return From This High-Growth Food Stock

I’ve been in this racket a while. Every year, I can almost set my watch to the late-September/early-October seasonal market volatility.

As a portfolio manager, this predictability gives me an opportunity to re-evaluate my holdings and, if things are on sale, add stocks I’ve been considering at the prices I want to pay.

Typically, investors move toward defensive stocks, such as utilities or consumer staples, in volatile times. It’s not a bad move, but often fear clouds your judgment. And if emotion is involved, then there’s a good chance you’ll pay too much.

One growing food company that I follow closely, B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS), caught my eye during the recent downturn. The pullback created an opportunity to add a top-quality consumer staple stock at a value price.

B&G is one of my favorite consumer staples stories. Historically, the company has been successful at acquiring tired brands from bigger-name food companies and breathing new life into them. Some of the company’s better-known brands include Ortega, Old London, Mrs. Dash, Cream of Wheat, Emeril seasonings and sauces, Trappey’s and Underwood.

The company leveraged these better-known brands into incredibly strong operating results. In fact, B&G consistently turns in much stronger numbers than its peers. I stacked B&G up against ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) and even the venerable The Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG). Here’s what I found:

  5yr Avg Rev Growth 5yr Avg EPS Growth
B&G Foods, Inc.
(NYSE: BGS)
8.18% 24.50%
ConAgra Foods, Inc.
(NYSE: CAG)
9.30% -11.0%
Campbell Soup Co.
(NYSE: CPB)
1.65% -1.73%
The Procter & Gamble Co.
(NYSE: PG)
1.30% -0.10%

While B&G gave up some ground to mega-rival ConAgra (which I profiled earlier this year), clearly, B&G is the strongest grower of the group. The key to B&G’s execution is consistent: acquisition.

The two most recent acquisitions are leading the way. Pirate Brands, with its flagship snack Pirate’s Booty, was acquired last year. Specialty Brands, with its Bear Creek soups, was purchased in April 2014. The Pirate Brands division alone contributed $20 million in sales for the second quarter — that’s 10% of total revenue.

#-ad_banner-#Another B&G strength is the diversity of its customer base. Besides the grocery store behemoth Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), which accounts for 19% of sales, no one customer represents more than 10% of total sales.

One of the strongest customer segments for B&G is the dollar store space: second quarter sales grew at a 13% clip. Keep in mind that mid-to-high single-digit sector sales growth for a consumer staples company is considered good. B&G is delivering mid- teens results.

Risks To Consider: My biggest concern with BGS is long-term debt-to-capitalization, which currently sits at 67%. Typically, I’m not comfortable with a number that size. However, cash flow has grown at an annual rate of 27.5%, to $76 million from $32 million, while capital expenditures have only grown at a 7.5% rate for the same time period. As long as the company can continue to focus on intelligent acquisitions that will contribute to strong cash flow growth, things should remain hunky dory.

Another concern would be the effect of inflation on input costs, but based on recent economic data, crazy inflation just is not a concern right now.

Action To Take –> While I don’t think the markets will come unglued a la 2008 style, it can’t hurt to play a little defense with your equity selections. But rather than run toward the better-known consumer staple names that still feel a bit overpriced (especially in a soft market), picking up shares of BGS would be a good move.

The stock is trading around $29, which is a 23% discount to its 52-week high. The 18.6 forward price-to-earnings ratio is inexpensive for a company with a 24% five-year earnings per share growth. Its 4.9% dividend yield is much more attractive than larger peers yielding 3% or less. Based on the B&G’s solid acquisition strategy and consistent results, a 12-to-18 month price target of $43 is feasible. Factoring in the dividend, that’s a total return potential approaching 30%.

Another great way to play defense from the markets it to look for strong monthly dividend payers. My colleague Amy Calistri puts high-yielding investments to work for you and your retirement in her premium newsletter, The Daily Paycheck. Her strategy is so successful that she was invited to speak in front of a live studio audience at St. Edwards University. To find out how she got a dividend paycheck for each day of the year, click here.