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3
Stocks Warren Buffett
Wishes He Could Own
-- But Can't
Warren Buffett is a man that needs no introduction. He has
amassed a $50 billion fortune over his extraordinary career, and is widely
regarded as one of the most successful investors of all time. Naturally,
comments like the one below carry a great deal of weight in the
investing world.
"I think I could make you +50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could.
I guarantee that." -- Warren Buffett, 1999 Business Week.
That's a bold claim. A +50% rate of return would double your money in about
20 months, and would turn a modest |
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$10,000 investment into over
$500,000 in just ten years time!
If made by anyone else, such wild claims would quickly be dismissed. But
Buffett has earned a tremendous amount of credibility and isn't known for
making outrageous statements. If the "Oracle of Omaha" says he can earn +50%
per year, then most believe he could pull it off. Unfortunately, we'll never
know the answer to that question.
You see, Buffett's prediction came with one important stipulation: that he
start with an initial investment of $1 million or less. And as the chief of
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A), he is responsible for managing a company
with over $100 hundred billion in long-term investments. As you will read below, that huge asset base is
actually a major handicap -- one that places heavy restrictions on the type
of companies Buffett can buy.
But what if Buffett was starting over from scratch and could freely invest
anywhere he liked? What type of companies would he target to generate those
+50% annual returns? In today's report, we discover why he would primarily
stick to small, undervalued companies. In the process, we'll also provide a
detailed look at three such stocks that might have been on Buffett's
shopping list.
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TABLE
OF CONTENTS:
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Free
to All Web Site Visitors:
Introductory analysis about Warren Buffett and the segment of the
market with phenomenal gains that he outgrew but is still available
to small investors.
(1) Buffett's Hands are Tied
(2) Good Things Come in Small Packages
Available
Exclusively to Paying Customers:
Throughout the remainder of this report, we provide an in-depth look
at three stocks out of reach of Warren Buffet. By investing
in small companies like those Buffett began his illustrious career
with, investors can outperform the overall market by leaps and
bounds.
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(1.)
Buffett's Hands are Tied
As we all know, Warren Buffett has consistently trounced the
broader market indexes over the past four decades. However, he readily
admits that his largest margin of relative outperformance occurred during
the 1950s. Beginning in 1956, Buffett's investment partnership racked up an
amazing cumulative gain of +1,156% during his first decade as manager,
destroying the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But while he has maintained a
decided lead, Buffett's edge has narrowed somewhat over the past ten or
twenty years.
However, few would say that Buffett has lost his touch. Rather, as
Berkshire's assets have ballooned over the past few decades, he has
literally had too much money to invest -- which, strange as it sounds, is
actually a major disadvantage. Why? Because it essentially means that all
but the largest of companies are now off-limits, severely limiting the
available pool of stocks that Buffett can invest in.
Consider that Berkshire's investment portfolio is currently worth somewhere
in the neighborhood of $100 billion. A few decades ago, an investment of $120
million or so would have represented a meaningful position, and it could
have had a big impact on Buffett's portfolio.
Today, that amount would represent just one-tenth of one percent of Berkshire's investment holdings.
Even if such an investment performed well and gained +100%, it would barely
make a dent on the portfolio's total returns.
To have a material impact, a holding needs to represent at least around 1.5%
of the total portfolio -- or in this case
about $1.5 billion. In other words,
for all practical purposes, any company with a market capitalization under
$1.5 billion wouldn't be worth the effort for Buffett. And when it comes to
Berkshire's portfolio of publicly-traded stocks, Buffett typically looks to
establish a minority interest in the target company -- not buy it outright.
Realistically, then, assuming an ownership stake of 10%, if Buffett wants to
sink $1.5 billion into a company, then he must target those worth a minimum of
$15 billion. And keep in mind, whenever an institutional or other large
shareholder acquires a sizeable stake in a company, regulatory documents
must be filed and the buy orders must be chopped up to avoid driving the
price up. For example, Berkshire's 63-million share position in railroad
Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), which has an average daily trading volume
of 3,100,000 shares, has been made block by block. Again, this forces
Buffett to focus on large, highly liquid, and widely-held companies.
A simple stock screen reveals that of more than 10,000 domestic stocks, only
a little more than 300 have a market cap in excess of $15 billion. In other words, because
of the huge sums of money he must deploy, Buffett can't even consider
investing in roughly 97% of all domestic, publicly-traded companies.
Instead, he must stick to the giants. And because he has had trouble finding
any that meet his strict criteria, Berkshire's cash stockpile has swelled to
around $40 billion. That much idle money is far from efficient and drags
down investment returns. This is precisely why so many small-cap mutual
funds close their doors to new assets once they reach a certain asset level.
Against this handicap, it is a testament to Buffett's financial ingenuity
that Berkshire continues to perform well -- the
firm's book value increased
by $17 billion last year, the most ever for a U.S. company.
Learn
the Name of our Favorite Undervalued Stock!
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If you're a value-oriented
investor looking for discounted stocks, then you need to learn
more about our current "Undervalued Stock of the Month." In
recent issues we've profiled a major provider of cable 36%
below fair value, a lending company with potential to gain 108%,
and a publisher trading 56%
below its fair-value estimate.
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(2.)
Good Things Come in Small Packages
Of course, regular investors like you and me aren't responsible for billions
in assets. So unlike Buffett, we can nimbly establish positions in tiny
companies and still feel the impact when they perform well -- precisely the
"structural advantage" that Buffett believes would lead to annual returns of
+50%.
Today, Berkshire's portfolio contains huge companies like
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). And while the retail giant is an excellent company, it doesn't have
anywhere near the upside potential that it once did. This is because stock
prices are largely a derivative of earnings growth. And with over
$12
billion in annual earnings, Wal-Mart simply can't be expected to post the
same type of growth as a smaller company with, say, just $10 million in
earnings. Typically, the smaller firm will find it much easier to double or
triple its profits -- richly rewarding shareholders in the process.
Of course, the story was far different 27 years ago when Wal-Mart was a
young upstart with a promising future. Since then, the stock has skyrocketed
about 5,000 times in value, soaring from a split and dividend-adjusted price
of $0.01 per share in 1980 to a current price of around $50 -- meaning
someone who invested a modest $1,000 would now be a millionaire several
times over.
Although only a handful of today's up-and-coming firms will enjoy that type
of outlandish success, small-caps are nevertheless fertile ground for
investors. As we said above, smaller companies are capable of sustaining
higher growth rates, but this is only the beginning. Because most small
companies are under-followed and have little Wall Street analyst coverage,
there is often only a bare minimum of public information available
concerning these firms. In many cases, there are no conference calls, no
published earnings estimates, and certainly no Forbes cover articles --
meaning inquiring investors must often pore over recent SEC filings to learn
more.
On the bright side, this lack of readily available information keeps many
prospective investors on the sidelines, and with relatively few people
actively tracking these stocks, they are often thinly traded and can be very
inefficiently priced. Therefore, if you are willing to get your hands dirty
by digging deeper than others, then the rewards can be well worth the
additional effort.
Long-term return data bears this out. According to research firm Ibbotson
Associates, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps in 22 of the past
35 years. And looking further back, $1,000 invested in large-cap stocks in
1925 would have grown to roughly $2.5 million as of 2005. However, the same
amount invested in small companies would now be worth more than $13 million.
And this is based on these asset classes as a whole -- just imagine what a
hand-picked Buffett portfolio would have done!
Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing exactly which small-cap stocks
would catch Buffett's eye. However, it's a safe assumption that regardless
of size, he would look for the exact same characteristics that have netted
him billions in profits over the years. Specifically, he would be drawn to
companies with strong balance sheets, sustainable competitive advantages,
attractive business models and industry fundamentals, predictable owner
earnings (a variant of free cash flows), and proven managerial teams.
With all of this in mind, we have searched tirelessly for a select handful
of small-cap companies that exhibit the same traits that Buffett admires in
larger firms. And in the text that follows, we will take a closer look at
three standouts that best exemplify the type of companies that have captured
his interest and generated huge profits for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
Although Buffett can't profit from these smaller firms, individual investors
certainly can.
END OF FREE
CONTENT
The
remainder of this report is available exclusively to paid subscribers.
In it, we provide in-depth analysis of three stocks with smaller market caps
and huge earnings growth potential.
An insurance company that has increased revenues at a +35% annualized rate over the past 3
years.
A specialty wholesale distributor that has only tapped 10% of the potential
domestic market and has no major rivals to speak of.
A soda bottler that distributes to 11 states in the U.S. This
region has one of
the highest per capita soft drink consumption rates of anywhere in
the world.
Thanks for reading
today's special report -- 3 Stocks Warren Buffett Wishes He Could Own --
But Can't.
Good investing!
-- Research Staff
StreetAuthority.com
http://www.StreetAuthority.com
StreetAuthority LLC
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd.
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614
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