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Catalyst Investing:
Why a $4.50 Stock Hit
$82 in Six Weeks -- and How to Make it
Happen to You Next TimeInvestors have experienced it countless
times -- you buy a stock, only to watch the shares stagnate for weeks or
months on end. Most of the time you can't pinpoint the reason why the stock flounders
as the rest of the market passes you by. But at
StreetAuthority, we've finally unlocked the code to making sure you're on
the winning side of your investments.
You see, the secret to beating the market isn't just investing in great
companies. It's about investing in great companies that are likely to benefit
from a catalyst in the near
future.
In the scientific realm, catalysts are agents that |
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speed
reactions between
substances. We've borrowed the term for the investing world, and we use
it to describe a similar phenomenon. A stock's catalyst is something
that will trigger a significant acceleration in a company's earnings,
revenues, and of course, share price. A catalyst can be a trend, a
future event, or any number of things -- as long as it causes Wall
Street to flock to a particular security. Obviously, this leads to enormous gains for investors. In fact, strong catalysts can
easily mean triple-digit returns in just months.
| For example, InterDigital (Nasdaq: IDCC) shareholders saw a four-digit return
within two months of their catalyst being discovered.
In 1999, cell phone stocks were all the rage, and Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM)
was the darling of them all. Qualcomm was the recognized
leader in CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) -- a bandwidth
sharing technology that was about to be adopted as an industry
standard. Virtually every telecommunications company around the
globe was slated to migrate to CDMA.
InterDigital, on the other hand, was
a small patent holder in the wireless arena,
largely ignored by investors. For the better part of 1999, InterDigital's stock
stayed in a narrow $4.50-5.50
range. That changed November 17, 1999. |
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On that date, Qualcomm filed a report with the Securities and
Exchange Commission disclosing that it had licensed an
essential CDMA patent from InterDigital.
Investors
realized InterDigital would be entitled to royalties on
every cell phone and base station built to the new industry standard
technology. That catalyst generated +1,444%
gains for IDCC shareholders within six weeks.
Understanding the importance of the catalyst concept and how it can
lead to outsized returns for your portfolio, we at Market Advisor
created our proprietary StreetAuthority Catalyst
Rating system. This rating system is key to all of our
investment decisions and can only be
found in our Market Advisor
newsletter. In fact, the catalyst ranking is critical for every security
we cover, and our editors use the catalyst criteria as they search
through thousands of potential ideas in search of the stocks with
the greatest return potential.
Today's report will uncover the ins and outs of
our StreetAuthority Catalyst
Rating system, and show you exactly how catalysts led to gains of
more than +2000%... helped our portfolios nearly triple the
S&P... and reveal our latest finds using our proprietary rating system.
(1.) What Makes a
Catalyst?
Before
we dive into precisely how catalysts can help earn eye-popping returns for
your portfolio, it's best to get a feel for exactly what constitutes a
catalyst for a stock. While they
come in all shapes and sizes, catalysts usually fit into one of the
following broad categories:
A
major news event such as a takeover announcement, a favorable regulatory
ruling or a big contract win.
Take
Wrigley (NYSE: WWY) for example. We added shares of the chewing gum
giant to our portfolio in mid-2006,
just as they were hitting a bottom. In particular, we liked the firm's
solid growth due to overseas expansion, its well-known brand name and
its stable, recession-proof products. These factors alone accounted for
solid gains in the stock, as the shares rose more than +50% by mid-2008.
But then, a major new catalyst was introduced...
Citing
Wrigley's "best-in-class global brands," candy
conglomerate Mars made a takeover offer with the help of Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B). The next trading day after the deal was announced
the shares added
more than +20% -- in a single day. This is how profitable
catalyst-driven stocks can be. Of course, this gain came on top of a nice run since we
added the shares, and all told, the stock gained more than +75% during
the time we invested.
A company-specific trend, like the introduction of new product lines or expansion
into new markets.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) was a marginal computer
company with a user base of mostly students and design
professional who were devoted to its elegantly manufactured products and
easy-to-use software. But on October 23, 2001, the Cupertino, California-based
company introduced a portable mass-storage device that could hold
enormous amounts of data. Of course, we now know this device to be the
ubiquitous iPod.
While the same technology had been produced by other companies, Apple's
focus on the user experience and unique advertisements led to a digital
music player that truly resonated with consumers. This extreme catalyst,
in which Apple practically created a market that it still dominates, has
added tens of billions of dollars to the firm's market
capitalization. More than 150 million iPods have now been sold, and since
the product hit store shelves, Apple shares shot from about $9 to nearly $200
-- an amazing catalyst-fueled gain of
more than +2,000%.
An industry shift,
including technological changes or an increasingly favorable competitive
environment.
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) has long built the familiar
yellow heavy equipment used in major public-works projects. In addition,
CAT and other heavy-equipment manufacturers saw major business growth
thanks to increasing commodity and energy prices in recent years. Caterpillar's lineup of
machinery, including the $5 million 797 dump truck -- a 22 foot tall and 48
foot long beast that can slog uphill with 400 tons on its back -- is
essential to the mining and energy sectors, and increased commodity prices
strengthened demand industry wide. Obviously, this was a major catalyst
for the company. Specifically, from 2003-2008 Caterpillar's revenue rose
+100%, its profit by more than +220%, and its stock price
shot up over +200%. This proves that strong catalysts can move a large company --
Caterpillar is a Dow component -- as easily as it can a small firm.
A
macroeconomic trend such as strong economic growth in a particular country,
changing demographics, etc.
The so-called BRIC
countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- now account for more
than 30% of the world's economy and nearly 50% of its growth,
according to the International Monetary Fund. And thanks to this growth,
between November 2001 and
November
2007 Brazil's stock market added +369%, Russia's +630%, India's +500%
and China more than +200%. Of course, the growth of these nations is a strong catalyst for any company
doing business there, and while 2008 has seen a slowdown in these
markets, the long-term trend remains intact.
With this stellar catalyst in place, we looked to the iShares China 25 ETF
(NYSE: FXI), an exchange-traded fund offering broad exposure to the strong
growth in China. From the time we added the shares to our "Beat the S&P" Portfolio in
March 2005 until November 2007, FXI showered us with gains of nearly +300%.
(2.) Where There's no
Catalyst, There's a Cataclysm
The examples above give a quick taste of what catalysts can do.
But what happens in the absence of
catalysts? Die-hard investors who've been through Wall Street's ups and
downs have seen dozens of great stocks lose their footing because there
is simply no underlying reason for them to rise. One
example is the nation's most recognizable newspaper publisher,
The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT).
The Times has long been considered a journalistic standard, and for years it generated a strong, stable
profit. Circulation was stable, and
newspaper companies were considered
cyclical plays whose fortunes rose and fell with the broader economy and
the results of the companies who advertised in their pages. Another day, another edition
-- half ads, half copy. What could
change?
The whole world changed, and fast. The
digital revolution -- a catalyst that catapulted firms like
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and
Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) as the Times marched into the sunset --
somehow caught newspaper companies off-guard. Moves to retool themselves
into broader-based communication companies missed the mark: the TV and
radio properties they acquired saw their advertising revenues slip,
while viewership and listening habits changed. At the same time, Craigslist
and other media started to poach classified advertising dollars, a vital
element of newspapers' business model. The hits just kept coming: paper costs rose
and delivery costs
increased; websites added costs; publishers cut staff to save money,
then quality fell and subscriptions
waned.
Media companies like The
New York Times can still
make money publishing newspapers, though not as much as they once did. How
long that's possible is anyone's guess, as newspapers in their current form
aren't what consumers are clamoring for. What's more, many newspaper executives
-- who could have read about the transformation of the media in their own
papers -- were somehow slow to adapt to the changing marketplace. The Times
and others failed to adapt their products so as to harness the catalysts that propelled the more nimble members of the communications
industry. For instance, The Times easily could have bought MySpace.com with what it paid out
in dividends in the past decade. It didn't -- but a more prescient newspaper
publisher -- News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) certainly did.
This lack of positive catalysts painted an ugly portrait in dollar
terms. On August 19, 2004, the day Google went public -- a critical
milestone in the advertising world -- The New York Times closed at $42.06 per share.
Three years later, the stock had fallen
more than -43%.
Meanwhile, the
S&P 500 added roughly +40% over that period, a gain News Corp., the
company with the foresight to acquire MySpace.com and adapt to the new
media environment, was able to mirror.
Bottom line: Catalysts work both ways -- if you have them, you set
the pace. If you lack the vision to take advantage of them, the other
runners quickly pass you by, and catching up may well prove impossible.
Are
You Doubling the Performance of the S&P 500?
If You Were a Market Advisor Subscriber You Would
Be!
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Over the past
several years, our Market Advisor "Beat
the S&P" Portfolio has done just that -- by a more than 2-1
margin.
And this is not just some lucky strike. Out of the last 30
positions held, 22 were closed for a profit, with an average
gain of +39.3%. So, if your portfolio isn't doubling the S&P, then you need to subscribe to
Market
Advisor to beat Wall Street!
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(3.) Our Ratings Make it Easy
to Judge Catalyst Strength
The
concept is simple -- if an investment isn't poised to benefit from a
major positive catalyst or combination of several catalysts in the
coming months and years, then you should look elsewhere.
But if a stock IS benefiting from one or more important catalysts,
then these catalysts should propel the shares sharply higher, leading to
big gains for early investors.
Because this catalyst model forms the basis for all of our
recommendations, we provide complete details on this important concept
within all of our Market Advisor issues. And to help you
gauge the strength of a particular catalyst, we also include our
proprietary StreetAuthority Catalyst Rating system...
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StreetAuthority
Catalyst Rating
|
What
it Means
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Five
Stars --> These stocks are benefiting from the
strongest catalysts available in today's market. We expect
them to deliver triple-digit percentage gains in the
next year or two. |
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Four
Stars --> These companies are poised to profit from
positive news events, trends, or other catalysts. We
expect them to handily outperform the broader market
during
the next year or two. |
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Three
Stars --> These stocks are benefiting from one or more
positive catalysts. Although these catalysts aren't strong
enough to lead to dramatic share price outperformance, we
expect these stocks to slightly outperform the broader
market. |
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Two
Stars --> These stocks have one or more identifiable
catalysts, but these catalysts are relatively weak and are
unlikely to provide a major boost to the shares. We expect
these stocks to underperform the market during the next year
or two. |
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One
Star --> There are little or no identifiable reasons
for these securities to increase in price in the coming year
or two. Because of a lack of positive catalysts, we think
these stocks are "dead money." |
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As you can see from the table,
our rating system makes it as simple as possible to judge a stock's
catalysts and potential gains... if a stock has a five-star rating, you can
expect triple-digit returns. With one star, you might as well put your money
in your mattress, because it's not going to grow.
But you don't
have to just take our word about the importance of investing in
companies with strong catalysts and the reliability of our StreetAuthority Catalyst Rating
system -- we have the results to prove it. By identifying great
companies with strong catalysts, we've handily outperformed the
market in recent years. In fact, our "Beat the
S&P" Portfolio has roughly tripled the performance of
the S&P 500 since 2003.
In addition, we've included a couple of specific examples below to drive
home exactly how powerful our rating system is and the sort of returns
investors can expect by following its guidelines.
(4.) Powerful Catalysts =
Powerful Gains
MasterCard (NYSE: MA) -- MasterCard is one of the world's
leading processors of electronic payments, clearing millions of
transactions an hour for almost 25,000 financial institutions. The
credit-card company doesn't actually extend credit to card holders --
it's purely a back-office operation. It derives revenue primarily from
transaction fees -- every swipe of a MasterCard puts more cash in the
company's coffers.
When we first added MasterCard
shares to our portfolios in 2006, we highlighted
several important factors that led to its five-star catalyst rating.
High barriers to entry protect market share: Because it takes decades of time and billions of dollars to
build a global electronic payment network of merchants and banks, MasterCard's business is
protected by
significant barriers to entry. The industry is essentially a duopoly, with
MasterCard and Visa (NYSE: V) dominating the business and processing 83%
of transactions, according to CardWeb. This gives MasterCard a
sustainable and all but impenetrable advantage over any would-be competitors.
Discover (NYSE: DFS), for instance, was launched in 1985. Even after
more than 20 years of business, it's mired in fourth
place in terms of transaction volume, with only a 4% market share and dim prospects against its larger rivals.
The trend toward a cash-free economy: Knowing that MasterCard was
well protected from competitors, we turned our attention to
catalysts. The company was benefiting from one of the strongest
long-term catalysts we've ever encountered -- the rapid, seemingly
unstoppable trend toward greater use of electronic payments like credit
and debit cards. About 40% of all transactions in the United States were
paid for with plastic -- either debit, credit or prepaid cards -- in
2005. By 2011, cash
transactions will be the minority, with electronic payments
being used in 55% of U.S. commerce.
Strong results in foreign markets: Similar to the story in the
U.S., we also predicted credit-card usage was set to explode in
emerging markets like China.
Here's what we had to say back in
2006...
"It's not hard to imagine Chinese credit card growth of +75% to
+100% annualized over the next few years as Chinese consumer spending on
cards rises towards international norms. That spells years of growth ahead
for MasterCard."
That proved to be right on the money, and foreign markets continue
to drive growth for the company. And the the firm is far from done expanding its business...
Recent Citigroup research found that 58% of Chinese card holders use their
cards only for major purchases, not for little everyday
expenditures like lunch or dry cleaning. To consider a parallel for
this potential growth, think about the American wireless market. Ten years ago, most
cell-phone users would only make a call in case of an emergency. Today,
we don't think twice to call to clarify whether you wanted skim or soy
in your latte. Chinese credit card use should mimic that trend -- plastic
is just too convenient.
The end result of all these catalysts? Almost a triple-digit gain, which was
implied by our five-star rating. In fact, readers
who followed our initial recommendation managed to lock in total returns
of +235% from MasterCard between December 2006 and June 2008
-- a period of only 18 months.
However, don't make the mistake that the performance of MasterCard was just a one-hit wonder. Thanks to our focus on catalysts, we've uncovered dozens
more winners, including many that produced gains even greater than those
seen by MA. The following pick, for example, provided gains that many
investors rarely, if ever, experience firsthand.
Central Europe Distribution Corporation (Nasdaq: CEDC) -- In late
2004, we
bought shares of this integrated spirits business, which makes, imports
and distributes liquor, beer and wine in Poland. The company traces its roots to an
unusual business venture: the importing of Australia's Foster's beer to
Poland by a company based in Philadelphia. But the venture was a
success, and growth followed.
By 1993,
CEDC had created a direct supply network. During the ensuing years, the
company bought 18 regional distributors -- always retaining the sales
team and managers who had contacts at the liquor stores, gas stations, bars and restaurants where the products were sold. It
also acquired a
wine importer and two vodka production facilities. In less than 20
years, CEDC functionally created a complete liquor distribution platform
across the
Eastern European nation. But we didn't think the company (or its stock)
was done just yet. In fact, we pinpointed a couple of catalysts behind the
shares:
Expanding footprint and weaker competition: While either one of these would be an enviable
catalyst, CEDC featured them both. For decades the Communists controlled
alcohol through state-run enterprises. After the shroud of communism was
lifted from Eastern Europe, small, mom-and-pop liquor distributors took
over. CEDC has been able to buy these operators and turn its market
share into market dominance.
As its name implies, this company
isn't looking to dominate the market in Poland alone, it's setting its
sights on the entire Central European region, including countries like the
Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria and Germany.
Poland's Entry to the
broader EU market: Central Europe is a nice enough place to do business,
but the broader European Union, which Poland joined in 2004, comprises
500 million consumers. That's a market larger than the United States. If
CEDC can harness its methodical market-development tactics throughout
the EU, it can tap into massive demand and and huge growth potential.
The company today produces two liters of vodka a year for each of the 38
million people in Poland. Its ability to grow will wane when it's
producing 924 million more liters a year -- enough to offer two
liters for each person in the EU.
Based on
these strong catalysts, we were bullish on CEDC's outlook. In fact,
here's a look back at
our comments when we added the stock to our "Beat the S&P" Portfolio:
"Going forward, the
firm is likely to grow at a +20% annual clip as it continues to expand its
footprint and acquire its weaker competitors. With little competition and
the benefit of Poland's recent introduction into the European Union on its
side, CEDC should have no trouble delivering outsized gains in the months
and years ahead."
Once again the catalyst
advantage is clear: investors who mirrored our purchase of this stock in
their portfolios posted another triple-digit return. We added CEDC shares
in December 2004 and saw a total return of +290% by June 2008. And
despite a pullback in the shares, the five-star catalysts are still at work!
(5.)
The Newest Five-Star Stocks
Of course, while
these past winners are impressive, new readers want to know where they
should invest now. What stocks have the likelihood to be the next
triple-digit gainers on the strength of their catalysts?
To answer that question, let's take a look a couple of stocks with
StreetAuthority Catalyst Ratings of five stars that we recently added to
our portfolios. These ideas have strong catalysts that should help them
march steadily higher in the coming months and years...
END OF FREE
CONTENT
The
remainder of this report is available exclusively to our Market Advisor
subscribers.
In it, our research staff provides a profile of two of our newest five-star
stocks with compelling catalysts. Both these companies are poised to exploit
growing global trends and should see spectacular gains for years to come.
Thanks for reading today's
special report -- Catalyst Investing.
Paul Tracy
Chief Investment Strategist
StreetAuthority.com
http://www.StreetAuthority.com
Please note that StreetAuthority, LLC is not a registered investment firm or
broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein
should be used solely for informational purposes. StreetAuthority does not
purport to tell or suggest which investment securities members or readers
should buy or sell for themselves. Site users should always conduct their
own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before
making any investment decision. StreetAuthority will not be liable for any
loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained in
this newsletter or on our web site. Our readers are solely responsible for
their own investment decisions.
The information contained herein does not constitute a representation
by the publisher or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities.
Our opinions and analyses are based on sources believed to be reliable and
are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information
contained in this report should be independently verified with the
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errors or omissions.
StreetAuthority receives no compensation of any kind from any companies
that may be mentioned in our newsletters or on our web site. Any opinions
expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and
writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in this
report or on our web site, but are barred from trading any of these
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