THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE AS A REVERSAL PATTERN

For the last several weeks I have used this section of the newsletter to focus on major reversal patterns. The reason for this concentration is that the S&P 500 has created a major reversal triple-bottom formation. When the S&P 500, which is a proxy for the overall market, reverses, many individual stocks also tend to demonstrate reversal patterns of their own.

Last week I focused on the inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is common to quite a few charts in this time frame and which characterized the chart of Gap Inc. (GPS, $17.38). Swing traders who recognize this pattern in charts they themselves examine will be able to spot many profitable trading opportunities.

To review: the significance of a reversal pattern can be judged by three factors. These are the amount of time the stock takes to reverse, the height or point range of the pattern during construction of the reversal, and the volume or number of shares that changed hands while the pattern was forming.

The reversal pattern I want to focus on this week is the ascending triangle. When traders in my stock market seminars recognize this pattern, they typically associate it as a continuation pattern. That is, they see the ascending triangle as a relatively short-term formation during which a stock enters a period of price consolidation.

Indeed, the ascending triangle very often plays this function. However, on occasion, it marks a major reversal in a stock, and when it does, it provides a very low-risk, high-reward entry opportunity.

The ascending triangle is marked by two significant technical features. At its top, there is a line of resistance. This is a supply line, or a price at which sellers step into the market and unload their shares. The second aspect of the ascending triangle is the rising trendline. This line communicates the fact that bullish investors are over time willing to pay higher and higher prices.

Eventually the bulls or bears must triumph. The ascending triangle is said to have a "bullish bias" -- so one should generally expect the eventual breakout to be to the long side. The more times the stocks tests its upper resistance line, the more likely it will eventually break out to the upside (because the supply held by sellers is consumed over time). If a stock tests resistance in an ascending triangle three or four times, then it is likely that on the fifth try the breakout will be successful.

When the breakout comes, it should be accompanied by much stronger-than-normal volume. The higher above normal the volume, the more power the breakout has and the trustworthier it is.

The measuring principle, which I've discussed several times in recent issues, can be applied to the ascending triangle. To do so, take the height from the bottom of the triangle formation. Add that number to the breakout level and you have the eventual target.

InVision (INVN, $24.31) -- a maker of bomb detection devices for airport screening -- is an issue we identified in our "Stocks to Watch" section above. After the terrorist attack on September 11th, the shares had a tremendous run, surging from near $5 in September 2001 to a high just below $50 in February 2002 -- a scant six months later. From there INVN went into a sharp decline, bottoming below $20.

From a fundamental perspective the stock is extremely interesting. The stock's PE (price/earnings) ratio currently sits at 8, and analysts are calling for the firm to earn a whopping $3.43 per share this year. Perhaps the stock is so cheap because earnings are projected to decline to $1.97 in 2004. Still, assuming these estimates are correct, the shares are still be selling at about 12 times 2004 forward earnings.

As of the last reported figures I could find, 31% of the 14.1 million-share float of the stock is held short, leaving the shares primed for a potential short squeeze. The strategy here would be to buy on a high-volume breakout of the ascending triangle at $25. So far the stock has tested this level twice. Note that the average daily volume over the last several months has been very tepid.

The highly compressed Bollinger bands show that the stock is in a narrow trading range and predict that a volatile move is ahead. As long as INVN remains in a narrow trading range between $22 and $25, the shorts will have no incentive to cover. Above $25, however, I think they will be fearful enough to be spurred into action.

Note that the shares are now testing their 150-day moving average for the first time in several months. The average is still sloping down, but in a strong market the stock could certainly trade above it. I will continue to monitor INVN carefully for a breakout.

Income Security of the Month If you're looking for high yields, monthly payments and unprecedented safety from your investments, then you need to learn more about our "Income Security of the Month" for November 2008. This stable preferred stock has a long track record of paying some of the most solid dividends in Wall Street history. In fact, the preferred issue pays a monthly dividend totaling 10.3% annually and has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than +44 percentage points over the last year!

Top 10 Stocks for 2008! Since we began publishing this report back in 2003, the picks we've featured have consistently beaten the broader market -- delivering average gains of +21.3% per year and outperforming the S&P by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Act now to reserve your copy of our newest report -- Top Ten Stocks for 2008.