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| Black
Monday |
What It Is:
Black Monday, also called "The Crash of 1987,” refers to the 509-point fall
in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on October 19, 1987. It also refers to October 28,
1929, when the averages fell 12.8%.
How It Works/Example:
Black Monday is perhaps the most famous trading day in Wall Street history. In
one day, the companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 22% of their
value, or about $500 billion.
Put simply, the reason for the market crash was that the
supply of stock suddenly far exceeded the demand for stock, and investors,
fearing that prices would continue to fall, panicked. However, the specific
causes of Black Monday are controversial and numerous. Although many still
blame program trading and portfolio insurance for the crash, no one event is
solely responsible. Each factor that affected the crash was only part of a
larger web of influences. For example:
· The bond market, especially the junk bond market, was popular in
1987, and Treasury yields hit record highs (about 10%). Many investors
questioned the wisdom of being in the stock market when they could receive
similar or better returns from bonds. Rising crude oil prices also created
inflation worries, which further increased bond yields. However, many considered
bond yields too high, blaming out-of-control fears about inflation.
· During the crash, a steadily falling market showed that
institutional investors’ heavy dependence on program trading and portfolio
insurance actually did more harm than good. In a rapidly declining market,
the desire to sell only
exacerbated the downward pressure on the averages. Further, the institutional
investors’ program trading mechanisms hastened the downward spiral by
automatically placing stop-loss orders after the market crossed certain
thresholds. On Black Monday, the heavy sell volume overwhelmed the NYSE’s
automated order system, and many traders simply gave up trying to execute trades
for a time. These events created serious information gaps and delays, which
further inflamed the panic selling.
· The United States trade deficit was relatively high, and the
House of Representatives passed an amendment aimed at reducing the trade
surpluses of many Asian countries, which made Wall Street worry that there would
be less Asian demand for U.S. Treasuries. Wall Street also worried about the
weakening dollar.
· Events in the Middle East were creating concerns about military
action or war. A few days before the crash, Iranian missiles hit a U.S. tanker
near Kuwait, five months after an Iraqi missile hit a U.S. frigate. This drove
the Dow Jones Industrial Average down on October 16. On October 19, Black
Monday, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil factory.
· A series of corruption and insider trading investigations
continued to get headlines in 1987. Most major investment banks came under SEC
scrutiny, including Drexel Burnham Lambert, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Paine
Webber, and Kidder, Peabody. Some of the Wall Street’s most famous names were
also caught in a variety of legal troubles, including Ivan Boesky, Michael
Milken, and Carl Icahn. As a result, many investment banks struggled with major
layoffs, disenchanted clients, and bitter investors.
Why It Matters:
Black Monday was the biggest one-day loss in the history of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and was a reminder of the power of the markets. It became an
example of the power of the lack of investor confidence and the interrelation of global
financial markets and economic factors. It also exposed the weaknesses of new
portfolio strategies (namely portfolio insurance and program trading) and
created opportunities for new technologies (namely circuit breakers and
increased trading capacity) that help prevent or mitigate selling panic. For
individual investors, Black Monday became a prime example of the risks of
short-term investing and of the temporary nature of trends.
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