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In the world of consumer goods, we have
all seen some products become immensely popular almost overnight, and then fade
into obscurity almost as quickly. Alcohol is most definitely not one of
those products.
According to a recent Gallup poll, 64% of those surveyed said that they drink
alcoholic beverages. That percentage has held steady for decades; a similar
survey conducted in 1939 showed an almost identical reading of 63%.
However, while the overall percentage of drinkers has remained level, those that
do imbibe are doing so more frequently these days. Of those polled who drink,
nearly 75% said they had consumed a drink within the past week -- a sharp
increase from the 54% who had done so a decade earlier. Furthermore, ten years
ago the average drinker consumed under 3 alcoholic beverages per week. That
figure has since risen to around 4.5 per week.
Beer remains on top as the nation's drink of choice. However, the wine and
spirits groups have closed the gap markedly in recent years, and they now sit
close behind. Around the country many drinkers, particularly the trend-conscious
younger crowd, have been increasingly ordering a glass of wine or a splashy
cocktail over a bottle of beer.
While per-capita beer consumption has been flat over the past several years,
wineries and liquor distillers have seen an uptick in their business.
| Major
Players in the Industry |
| Brown Forman (BF-B) |
| Constellation Brands (STZ) |
| Diageo (DEO) |
| Fortune Brands (FO) |
Thanks to several waves of global
consolidation, the total number of breweries and distillers has declined sharply
over the past several decades. As a result, the pool of potential investment
candidates has narrowed somewhat.
However, each of the four companies listed above is worthy of additional
consideration. Of these, we believe industry leader Diageo (DEO) has the most to
offer investors.
A Closer Look at Industry Leader Diageo
Diageo is the world's largest distributor of beer, wine, and spirits. The
company produces, packages, and distributes a wide range of premium products in
more than 180 markets around the world.
Many of the world's most popular brands fall under the Diageo umbrella,
including: Crown Royal, Guinness Stout, Johnny Walker, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan,
Jose Cuervo, and Tanqueray. Better still, industry insiders have noted that many
consumers are migrating to high-end premium brands -- playing right into
Diageo's strength.
Along with a bright revenue picture, Diageo also enjoys powerful economies of
scale, intoxicating net profit margins, and very low capital requirements. The
company is able to generate barrels of annual free cash flow -- much of which it
uses to fund an annual dividend payment.
DEO is the "800-pound gorilla" of the alcoholic beverage space, with
revenues and profits that exceed those of the other three firms on the above
list. Not surprisingly, Diageo enjoys considerable scale advantages over many of
its peers.
Last Call
The alcoholic beverage business is a mature industry. As such, there are limited
opportunities for strong top-line growth, particularly in developed markets.
Nevertheless, stepped-up marketing efforts industry-wide continue to pay off,
siphoning market share away from leading brewers like Anheuser-Busch.
All things considered, the major producers of wine and spirits have many reasons
to smile. Chances are virtually nil that consumers around the world will
suddenly lose their thirst for alcoholic beverages, so demand for their
high-margin products is all but guaranteed. With this in mind, conservative
investors who are drawn to steady, predictable revenues and cash flows might
want to sample something from the alcoholic-beverage group.
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