Football Season Could Be The Key To Profits for This Hot Stock

It’s that time of year again; Football is back. The great American past time is treated much like a national holiday and celebrated in its own unique way with raucous cheering, spicy wings, and copious amounts of beer.

One company comes to mind that offers a one-stop-shop for any fans needs — Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD). An option trade in this stock could have your portfolio celebrating right alongside you this season.

#-ad_banner-#Buffalo Wild Wings is a casual dining company with a focus on sports entertainment. In addition to its namesake menu item, wings, it offers a selection of burgers, sandwiches, and salads as well. The company recently made a majority investment in the Dallas-based restaurant Rusty Taco. Buffalo Wild Wings hopes to foster the small chain’s growth and expand across the country. 

Unlike most casual dining restaurants, Buffalo Wild Wings has a selection of alcoholic drinks that includes craft beers. It’s taking advantage of a growing trend in the United States that has shifted toward microbreweries and specialty beers over mainstream brands. Today, there are over 3,000 breweries in the country compared to just 1,020 in 2009 — almost triple the number in just five years.

Fundamentally, the stock doesn’t appear to show any real weakness. It has long-term growth expectations of 20% and zero long-term debt liabilities. Short-term debt of only $43 million and cash holdings of more than $124 million give the company plenty of liquidity to take advantage of opportunities like the investment in Rusty Taco. 

The stock looks oversold based on its RSI of 21, which appears to be an overreaction to the company’s second-quarter results. While net income soared 44%, management failed to give the guidance investors were looking for despite solid earnings expectations of around $5.05 per share for 2014. The stock slump could be a buying opportunity for value investors.

Looking forward to the next 12 months, this stock should be fairly valued at around $168. The stock is trading around its average P/E of 28, and with future growth estimates of 22%, full-year EPS for 2015 should be just under $6 a share. That represents a potential gain of about 26% by next year.

The trade I want to recommend is called a synthetic bull spread. In a traditional bull spread, we would buy an in-the-money call and sell an out-of-the-money call to mitigate our upfront costs. The synthetic portion is simply the addition of selling an out-of-the-money put as well to decrease our net costs even further. 

While this trade limits your upside, it allows you to place a trade at a much lower cost than you would have to assume if you bought the stock long instead. The downside may include the purchase of the underlying stock and while this trade’s loss is technically unlimited, it could result in profits if the stock is held for the long term. 

Recommended Trade Setup:

— Buy one BWLD Dec 130 Call
— Sell one BWLD Dec 155 Call
— Sell one BWLD Dec 125 Put
— Enter trade at net debit of $6.25 or less ($625 per contract)

I previously discussed how the upside is limited with this trade. Our maximum profits are limited to the stock rising to $155. If the stock should gain more than that when the trade expires in December, our profits will be limited to this cap. 

If the stock reaches $155 by expiration, our short put and short call will expire worthless while our long call will be worth $25 ($2,500 per contract). If we subtract our initial net premium of $625, we’re left with a total possible gain of $1,875.

Our maximum loss would occur if the stock falls below $125, our trade will became worthless, in which case we would suffer the net premium loss of $625 plus the cost of buying the stock at our short put strike price of $125 ($12,500 per contract). Our total loss sustained would be the combination of the two, or $13,125.

It’s interesting to note the downside differences between owning the stock and using the synthetic bull spread. If you were to purchase 100 shares of the stock at its current price of $136, you would stand to lose $13,600. The option strategy would still be better in the event of a total loss by $475.

The breakeven point of this trade is calculated by adding our net premium of $6.25 to the strike price of the long call. The stock must reach $136.25 by expiration to result in a wash, which is less than $0.50 above current prices. Our long call would be worth $6.25, which would completely cancel out our debit of the same amount.

If the stock rises to $155, we would experience a gain of 200% while the stock needs to appreciate 16.5%. To break even, the stock only needs to rise less than 1% between now and December. The synthetic bull spread is a great way to leverage your portfolio without taking on excess risk and can be repeated until the stock reaches its fair value of $168.

If predicting gains from a stock like BWLD excites you, you have to check out what my colleague Frank Bermea calls ‘The Alpha Score. It’s a secret indicator that only a few dozen people know about — but it’s able to flag exactly which stocks are about to jump double or triple-digits days before it happens. It’s already flagged 71 stocks that gained 10% or more in just two weeks. Click here to find out more about the ‘Alpha Score’ — and get the name of its latest stock flashing “buy” now.

This article originally appeared on Football Season Could Be the Key to Profits for This Hot Stock