What Every American Needs To Know About China’s Economy

It could be the most important meeting you haven’t heard about: in China this week, the Central Committee of the Communist Party is meeting to come up with a new Five-Year Plan for the world’s most populous nation — the 13th such blueprint since Chairman Mao started the practice in 1953.

Much has changed since the 1950s. Thanks to its strategic shift toward a market-based economy over the past three decades, China’s GDP has grown more than 25-fold since 1990, and more than 10-fold in the past decade alone. China is now the world’s second-largest economy to the United States — and its future is increasingly important to ours.

China’s economy has helped drive sales for thousands of publicly traded U.S. stocks, from exporters of specialized equipment such as General Electric to consumer-goods and restaurant companies like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Yum! Brands. Consider that China is a bigger market for Apple than Europe is; it’s no longer an emerging market — it’s the market that counts the most outside of our borders.

And that’s why recent signs of pronounced slowdown in China’s rate of growth are so concerning. We’re not talking about a recession, or anything close to it: China’s centralized economy includes massive government investments in industrialization, so increased GDP growth remains virtually guaranteed. But after rising at double-digit rates for much of the past decade, the country’s economy grew at “only” a 7.4% to 7.8% annual rate each calendar year from 2012-2014.

That rate may be slowing further. Part of the reason is that China’s economy is now growing from a much larger base; it’s simply not possible to keep up such a torrid pace indefinitely. Another reason: China has already built a good portion of the infrastructure — such as roads, factories, utility networks and even brand new cities — that helped boost its economy with massive investments over the past many years. A third reason is that China recently has suffered from the same asset-value bust that hit the United States, Canada and Europe several years ago; as its housing and stock markets plummeted, so did consumer spending. 

Meanwhile, China’s industrial sector has been hit by rising labor costs and excess capacity, slowing both exports and foreign investment. To compensate, the government took the surprising step in August of allowing China’s currency, the yuan, to depreciate against the U.S. dollar to boost Chinese exports (by making them less expensive in the United States). China also has taken steps to intervene in its own stock market to stop the bear market. We’ll see if the Central Committee signals further shoring-up policies this week.

The bottom line: Despite the government’s efforts, China’s GDP grew at a year-over-year pace of 6.9% in the third quarter, and it’s likely that growth will be less than 7% for all of 2015 — the lowest rate in 25 years.

Granted, the United States and Europe would do cartwheels if our economy was growing that fast. But without the powerful growth engine that China has provided the world over the past decade, consumer and industrial demand weakens perceptibly. That’s bad news for our economy and stocks that depend heavily on China.


If China Slows, Look Out For These Stocks
There’s no way to completely avoid exposure to China while maintaining a diversified investment portfolio. And really, there’s no need to do so. China’s economy will continue to provide much of the world’s economic growth in the coming years — though with less turbocharge than in years past. So while it’s wise to continue to invest in top-notch companies with China exposure, it’s also wise to be aware of your China exposure in case its economic growth slows even more than expected.

Certain sectors have far greater China exposure than others. A recent report by Goldman Sachs identified information technology, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary companies as those with the greatest revenue reliance on China. That makes sense, as these types of companies export to China or produce their products there and sell directly to the Chinese market.

Individual large-cap stocks with substantial dependence on revenue from China include Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN), Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Texas Instruments (Nasdaq: TXN) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), which just announced it will spin off its China operations as a separate company.

Again, I’m not advising you to dump these stocks if you own them. But be aware that a China-centric portfolio might suffer if Chinese growth continues to disappoint.

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