Friday Losers: Research in Motion, Aerovironment and BP

Among the biggest losers in Friday’s early trading are Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), Aerovironment (Nasdaq: AVAV) and BP (NYSE: BP).

Top Percentage Losers — Friday, June 25, 2010
Company Name (Ticker) Intra-Day Price Intra-Day
% Loss
52-Week High 52-Week Low
Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) $25.90 -8.3% $88.08 $53.55
Aerovironment (Nasdaq: AVAV) $69.68 -3.9% $35.38 $20.90
BP (NYSE: BP) $39.87 -3.8% $62.38 $27.07

*Table includes companies with minimum market capitalizations of $200 million and three month trading volumes of at least 100,000 shares. All percentage returns are listed as of 11:29AM Eastern Standard Time. Click on ticker symbols for up-to-the-minute price quotes and percentage gain data.



RIMM can’t Defy Critics

Heading into Thursday evening’s earnings report, an increasing number of investors had been grumbling that Research in Motion’s (Nasdaq: RIMM) Blackberry line of smartphones is losing cachet, and that Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone and Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android would start to steal market share. Quarterly results were pretty solid, but needed to exceed forecasts to beat back those concerns. Instead, shares are falling -8% in Friday trading.

In a vacuum, RIMM’s numbers look great. Sales rose +24% from a year ago, profits rose +23%. The company added 4.9 million net new subscribers to its service, and now has a hefty 46 million customers. Trouble is, the customer base for the iPhone and Google’s android are growing even faster, so market share is slipping.

RIMM’s conference call was dominated by chatter about the ever-toughening competition. But management hinted that RIMM will be releasing some new products in a few months that could swing the momentum back in its favor.

#-ad_banner-#To defend its stock, RIMM announced another share buyback, which in conjunction with a just-completed buyback, would cut the share count by 10%. But that won’t really support the stock, which has fallen from $75 to $54 during the past three months. Instead, the stock will be stuck in a rut until the company can prove that its R&D pipeline can produce products that steal back market share. Management hopes that the soon-to-be-released line of new smartphones can be a game changer. The problem is that Apple and Google are setting such a high bar.

Most analysts are taking a dim view of RIMM right now, but analysts at Needham & Co. remain as supporters, noting that this is “a stock that investors now love to hate.” And they add that “RIMM has several things going for it. A new operating system and browser due by September, and the most efficient network, which should play well as usage-based pricing takes over the market.”

Action to Take –> RIMM is still posting solid growth. The fact that shares now trade for around ten times 2011 earnings tells you that investors expect growth to sharply slow or stop completely. That’s an overly bearish view. Nevertheless, the stock looks like dead money, at least for a while.

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Aerovironment’s Growing Pains

For several quarters or several years, young upstart companies can post consistent strong results. But on the path to maturation, speed bumps can occur, giving the impression that growth has stalled out. That perception is dogging shares of Aerovironment (Nasdaq: AVAV). The stock has lost nearly -40% of its value since late January.

Aerovironment is involved in two disparate industries, both of which are experiencing hiccups. The company, a leading provider of unmanned drones being used in Pakistan and elsewhere, received word this winter that the U.S. Dept. of Defense (DoD) would scale back new orders for drones in the near-term. Uncle Sam also paid AVAV to conduct R&D on advanced pilot-less planes, but has cut back spending in this area for now.

Aerovironment also makes high-speed battery chargers which are expected to be used by many owners of electric cars. It’s been a small market thus far, solely focused on industrial and commercial vehicles such as golf carts and forklifts. Later this year, when Nissan’s new Leaf hits the market, demand is expected to build sharply.

Just as the electric car market takes off, demand could also pick up in the unmanned drone business. That’s because the DoD has signaled that the program is still a longer-term priority, and established a target that a third of all military aircraft be pilot-less by 2013. That implies billions of dollars in spending still to come.

Shares of AVAV are down another -4% on Friday, after the company delivered strong fiscal fourth-quarter results, but tepid forward guidance, on Thursday evening. Management believes that sales will grow +10% to +15% in the fiscal year that just began, which would be an improvement over the just-completed fiscal year, when growth stalled completely. Nevertheless, analysts had been expecting sales to grow closer to the +15% to +20% range.

Action to Take –> It’s unclear when growth will re-accelerate. The current fiscal year could also be a challenge. But Aerovironment faces an undeniably bright future, and should be attractive for long-term investors.

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BP sinks Lower

As our recent analysis showed, BP (NYSE: BP) has ample cash flow to cover its liabilities. But since then, shares have been under further pressure, falling another -4% on Friday to another multi-year low. Our logic assumes that BP’s liabilities will evolve over time, allowing cash flow output to match the company’s financing needs as they arise. But some suspect that the company’s cash needs will come much more quickly. That’s not a problem if BP chose to issue fresh debt. It could simply pay off that debt through future cash flow.

But if BP can’t find buyers for its bonds, then equity sales may be in the offing. And that’s real trouble for equity investors. The farther shares fall, the more shares will need to be issued to come up with the dough, increasing the amount of shareholder dilution. It’s worth noting that a fire-sale of its stock is just the view of one man at Nomura Securities. But in this environment, one scary comment is enough.

Action to Take –> This is clearly a high-risk situation, but much of the share price action simply comes from supply and demand for the stock. Buyers are mostly on the sidelines, so selling pressure rules the day.