Trading stocks involves a combination of paying attention to present factors while also forecasting the future. And the closer we get to the end of the year, the more emphasis people seem to place on what’s to come. We already have forecasts for 2017 from more than a dozen major Wall Street firms, which I’ve collected in the table below. So far, analysts are thinking “inside the box,” with all estimates relatively close to one another. Some firms provide an outlook for earnings per share (EPS) on the S&P 500 while others provide a price target on the index, with… Read More

Trading stocks involves a combination of paying attention to present factors while also forecasting the future. And the closer we get to the end of the year, the more emphasis people seem to place on what’s to come. We already have forecasts for 2017 from more than a dozen major Wall Street firms, which I’ve collected in the table below. So far, analysts are thinking “inside the box,” with all estimates relatively close to one another. Some firms provide an outlook for earnings per share (EPS) on the S&P 500 while others provide a price target on the index, with many firms providing both. For comparison, EPS is expected to be about $110 for 2016.   2017 Projected EPS 2017 Index Target   Upside Potential Bank of America $129.00 2,300   4.9% Barclay’s $127.00       Canaccord $130.00 2,340   6.8% Citi $129.00 2,325   6.1% Credit Suisse   2,300   4.9% Deutsche Bank $130.00 2,350   7.2 Goldman Sachs $123.00 2,300   4.9% Jeffries $131.90 2,325   6.1% JP Morgan   2,300   4.9% Morgan Stanley $128.70 2,300   4.9% RBC $127.00 2,350   7.2 SocGen   2,400   9.5% UBS $127.00 2,300   4.9%… Read More

While there are no sure things in the stock market, there is one thing that’s almost certain: After stocks go up, bears start calling for a correction. You might remember the bears warning in April 2009 (shortly after the market bottomed) that the rise in stocks was a bear market rally and new lows were inevitable. The S&P 500 had jumped more than 15% in three weeks at that time and was overbought… according to the bears. Yet, stocks continued higher from there, embarking on a seven-year bull run. Fast-forward to present day, and after the S&P 500 shot up… Read More

While there are no sure things in the stock market, there is one thing that’s almost certain: After stocks go up, bears start calling for a correction. You might remember the bears warning in April 2009 (shortly after the market bottomed) that the rise in stocks was a bear market rally and new lows were inevitable. The S&P 500 had jumped more than 15% in three weeks at that time and was overbought… according to the bears. Yet, stocks continued higher from there, embarking on a seven-year bull run. Fast-forward to present day, and after the S&P 500 shot up 5.5% in less than a month’s time, the bears are once again calling the market overbought. Stocks being overbought means prices have gone up too far, too fast. There’s no precise definition of “too far, too fast,” but many analysts use indicators like the stochastics oscillator shown at the bottom of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) chart. When the market becomes overbought, a pullback is expected. That’s the theory anyway, but the chart shows why it doesn’t really matter if the market is “overbought.” Beginning in 2012, stochastics showed SPY was overbought for 42 consecutive months. Read More

While 50% of the country is unhappy with the outcome of the election, I think we can all agree we’re glad that it’s over. Not only do we no longer have to suffer through a barrage of campaign ads, we can finally start planning for the future without the uncertainty of an election looming over us. The presidential cycle is a four-year pattern in the stock market that many analysts have identified. There are variations of the pattern with some analysts starting the cycle in January when the new president assumes office, while others believe it starts in November with… Read More

While 50% of the country is unhappy with the outcome of the election, I think we can all agree we’re glad that it’s over. Not only do we no longer have to suffer through a barrage of campaign ads, we can finally start planning for the future without the uncertainty of an election looming over us. The presidential cycle is a four-year pattern in the stock market that many analysts have identified. There are variations of the pattern with some analysts starting the cycle in January when the new president assumes office, while others believe it starts in November with the election. Either way, though, the general consensus is that the first two years of a president’s term are the most difficult for the market. Once in office, a new president must make a variety of tough decisions. There are almost always problems the previous president was unable to resolve, and there are new problems that develop. In the first two years, presidents seem more willing to take decisive action, likely because there is a better chance voters will forget about any wrong moves by the time the next election rolls around. In the past, this has led to below-average… Read More

While most polls got the outcome of the presidential election wrong, one prominent analyst called it exactly right.  On Oct. 31, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, told CNBC that the S&P 500’s 2.2% decline from the end of July through the end of October indicated that Trump should win. Historically, a decline in stock prices over those three months has forecast a win for the candidate from the party that is not in the White House. Stovall noted this indicator was correct in seven of the eight past instances, a win rate of more than 87%. Statistically, you… Read More

While most polls got the outcome of the presidential election wrong, one prominent analyst called it exactly right.  On Oct. 31, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, told CNBC that the S&P 500’s 2.2% decline from the end of July through the end of October indicated that Trump should win. Historically, a decline in stock prices over those three months has forecast a win for the candidate from the party that is not in the White House. Stovall noted this indicator was correct in seven of the eight past instances, a win rate of more than 87%. Statistically, you could argue the sample size is too small to be meaningful, but the logic behind the indicator is simple.  A rising stock market reflects a public that is most likely happy with the economy. Because they are generally satisfied with the way things are, they vote for more of the same. On the other hand, a declining stock market reflects pessimism. People are either selling or not buying stocks because they’re worried about the future. When they vote, they want a change. ​This indicator proved to be right once again, and even though we now know Donald Trump will be… Read More

Democrats, Republicans and independents woke up to some good news on Wednesday: The election is over. Of course, about half of country sees the outcome as bad news while the other half views it as good news. But most people are glad the campaign has ended.  From my perspective, at least the ads are done and now we can plan for the future without the uncertainty of an election looming over us. #-ad_banner-#Now that we know who will be in the White House next year, planning a strategy for the market might be fairly easy. The presidential cycle is a… Read More

Democrats, Republicans and independents woke up to some good news on Wednesday: The election is over. Of course, about half of country sees the outcome as bad news while the other half views it as good news. But most people are glad the campaign has ended.  From my perspective, at least the ads are done and now we can plan for the future without the uncertainty of an election looming over us. #-ad_banner-#Now that we know who will be in the White House next year, planning a strategy for the market might be fairly easy. The presidential cycle is a four-year pattern in the stock market that many analysts have identified.  There are variations of this pattern, with some analysts starting the cycle in January when the president assumes office while others believe it starts in November with the election. Despite these differences, there is a general consensus that the first two years of a president’s term are the most difficult for the market. Once in office, a new president must make a variety of tough decisions. There are almost always problems the previous president was unable to resolve. Then there are new problems that develop. The essence of the… Read More

An old trader once told me, “Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever make.”  In theory, trading is easy enough — all you have to do is buy low and sell high, right? After all, there are thousands of books claiming to have all the information we’ll ever need.  In practice, however, trading is among the most difficult activities in the financial world. Despite the availability of a wealth of information, few do it well. #-ad_banner-#​ In fact, all that accessible information actually makes it harder to trade successfully. As an old trader once told me, “To know what… Read More

An old trader once told me, “Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever make.”  In theory, trading is easy enough — all you have to do is buy low and sell high, right? After all, there are thousands of books claiming to have all the information we’ll ever need.  In practice, however, trading is among the most difficult activities in the financial world. Despite the availability of a wealth of information, few do it well. #-ad_banner-#​ In fact, all that accessible information actually makes it harder to trade successfully. As an old trader once told me, “To know what everyone knows is to know nothing.” If everyone has the same tools, it’s difficult to use them to gain an advantage over everyone else. Think about that for a moment.  If you could really win in the markets by simply buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, then we would all be successful. The secret to beating the market — and your fellow investors — is to use little-known indicators, which act like secret weapons for trading. That’s why I developed my own indicator, which I call the Income Trader Volatility (ITV) indicator.  ITV is similar to the Volatility S&P… Read More

One of the major questions on investors’ minds — besides when the Federal Reserve will stop kicking the can down the road and who the next occupant of the White House will be — is whether oil has reached a bottom.  While we can’t be sure yet, it’s possible oil bottomed earlier this year and is now in a trading range with a lower boundary near $40 a barrel. But whether oil has bottomed is really more of an important question for futures traders who buy and sell the commodity. For stock market investors, a better question to ask is… Read More

One of the major questions on investors’ minds — besides when the Federal Reserve will stop kicking the can down the road and who the next occupant of the White House will be — is whether oil has reached a bottom.  While we can’t be sure yet, it’s possible oil bottomed earlier this year and is now in a trading range with a lower boundary near $40 a barrel. But whether oil has bottomed is really more of an important question for futures traders who buy and sell the commodity. For stock market investors, a better question to ask is whether an energy stock’s current price reflects oil’s decline or whether a company has adapted to lower oil prices. —Sponsored Link— This Stock Keeps Making Shareholders Triple-Digit Profits Every time this stock heats up — triple-digit gains soon follow. The first time AGHI started running, investors could have grabbed 243% returns. The second time? It shot up 390%. This time is could hit 1,775%. See why here. One name that gets a resounding “yes” to both of these questions is Tesoro (NYSE: TSO). The stock fell more than 40% from its… Read More

As investors, we face a great deal of uncertainty. We don’t know who the next President will be or which party will control the House or Senate. We don’t know when, or even if, the Federal Reserve will raise rates. We don’t know how far other central banks around the world will take negative interest rates.  Personally, I don’t expect much to change in the next few months. Interest rates will remain low and elections will continue to be held. Any changes to the current political and economic environment are likely to be small. This means, as investors, we can… Read More

As investors, we face a great deal of uncertainty. We don’t know who the next President will be or which party will control the House or Senate. We don’t know when, or even if, the Federal Reserve will raise rates. We don’t know how far other central banks around the world will take negative interest rates.  Personally, I don’t expect much to change in the next few months. Interest rates will remain low and elections will continue to be held. Any changes to the current political and economic environment are likely to be small. This means, as investors, we can remain focused on finding high-quality stocks with higher-than-average income, like the recent recommendation I made to my Maximum Income premium readers, Ford Motor (NYSE: F). —Recommended Link— The Next Epidemic (It Isn’t Zika Or Ebola)… While Zika and Ebola steal headlines, a much more dangerous epidemic has been developing in our hospitals. The CDC barely mentions it. But a NASA scientist, a Harvard MD, and a Johns Hopkins surgeon have shown that it’s claiming more lives than strokes, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes — combined… Full story here.  Ford is a company that needs no introduction. That, in a nutshell, is… Read More

Today, I want to tell you about a way you can legally skim tens of thousands of dollars a year from some of the largest firms on Wall Street that has been called safe enough for widows and orphans. It may sound fishy at first, but I promise it is 100% legal. And it is widely regarded (at least by those in the know) as one of the most conservative strategies in the market. I have taught hundreds of people — from young couples struggling to make ends meet to retirees — how to… Read More

Today, I want to tell you about a way you can legally skim tens of thousands of dollars a year from some of the largest firms on Wall Street that has been called safe enough for widows and orphans. It may sound fishy at first, but I promise it is 100% legal. And it is widely regarded (at least by those in the know) as one of the most conservative strategies in the market. I have taught hundreds of people — from young couples struggling to make ends meet to retirees — how to supplement their income with it. Last year alone, I skimmed $46,360 from some of the largest firms on Wall Street. —Recommended Link— Big Kahuna Profits in Energy Storage Tesla CEO Elon Musk is building a large battery farm in Hawaii to store energy from island sunshine. It’s just his latest move to grow his energy storage business. Here are three little-known energy companies riding Tesla’s huge 10-bagger technology wave. This report reveals the full story.   It was easy to do. The money was just sitting there. And if I hadn’t taken it, someone else would have. I just beat… Read More

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) surprised investors who were concerned about slowing iPhone sales when it reported its fiscal Q3 earnings in late July. While profits on the smartphone were down, Apple reported sales of 40.4 million iPhones, slightly beating projections by 400,000. The stock is up 9.5% since the earnings announcement, which is no doubt impressive. But I believe the key to understanding and profiting from AAPL going forward is acknowledging its shift from a high-growth business model to a mature one — and from a high-growth stock to a conservative investment. —Recommended Link— New Retirement Plan Lets You Schedule Payments… Read More

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) surprised investors who were concerned about slowing iPhone sales when it reported its fiscal Q3 earnings in late July. While profits on the smartphone were down, Apple reported sales of 40.4 million iPhones, slightly beating projections by 400,000. The stock is up 9.5% since the earnings announcement, which is no doubt impressive. But I believe the key to understanding and profiting from AAPL going forward is acknowledging its shift from a high-growth business model to a mature one — and from a high-growth stock to a conservative investment. —Recommended Link— New Retirement Plan Lets You Schedule Payments When You Want Retirees love this program because they see in advance exactly how much income they’ll make AND exactly when they’ll make it. And it’s 37% safer than the stock market. Check it out here. Unexpected growth isn’t entirely out of the question. The next iPhone could exceed sales expectations, or the company might introduce a new product that revolutionizes an industry. These events have happened before, and they explain why AAPL has one of the greatest growth histories of any stock. But shareholders have already been rewarded for those historic developments. New shareholders should expect their returns… Read More