Analyst Articles

In a rising stock market, it pays to focus on a company’s income statement. Each move up in the share price usually correlates to the company’s bottom-line performance. But when the market is in sell-off mode, you should shift your focus to the balance sheet. That’s where you can measure a company’s real worth and get a handle on how much risk the stock can hold.  Although a company’s market value can fall below the… Read More

In a rising stock market, it pays to focus on a company’s income statement. Each move up in the share price usually correlates to the company’s bottom-line performance. But when the market is in sell-off mode, you should shift your focus to the balance sheet. That’s where you can measure a company’s real worth and get a handle on how much risk the stock can hold.  Although a company’s market value can fall below the level of tangible book value on its balance sheet, it is likely to fall much less than most, even if the broader market plunges to fresh lows. That’s no small concern at a time when the European and Chinese economies are now weakening. Fresh reports point to a global economic slowdown, and you should be focusing on defensive “below book” stocks right now. These carry solid upside like growth stocks, but defensive stocks that trade below tangible book value will allow you to sleep better at night.  #-ad_banner-#After reviewing the 1,500 stocks that comprise… Read More

The stock market is a temperamental beast. Every year, month, week, day and even hour is different than the one preceding it. Long-term 100-year charts clearly show a substantial upward drift in stock prices, however, there are multi-year periods of very little change and even times of bearish, downward movement. If you begin investing in stocks during the start of one of these down cycles, it can take years just to get back to even, and that’s if you had the luck to buy the right stocks. … Read More

The stock market is a temperamental beast. Every year, month, week, day and even hour is different than the one preceding it. Long-term 100-year charts clearly show a substantial upward drift in stock prices, however, there are multi-year periods of very little change and even times of bearish, downward movement. If you begin investing in stocks during the start of one of these down cycles, it can take years just to get back to even, and that’s if you had the luck to buy the right stocks.  The market is littered with the financial corpses of those who went “all-in” during a bearish cycle or bubble burst of a particular sector. One only has to look back as far as the banking crisis of 2007-2008 or the Internet bubble burst at the turn of the century to find stocks of companies that never recovered. Even the broad indexes are well off their all time highs. Plenty of long term investors bought near the top and are still negative overall in their stock portfolios.  One way to prevent being caught at the wrong time and in the wrong… Read More

  Whenever you short a stock, there’s always one huge risk: that your fellow short-sellers will get spooked, buy to cover their positions and unwittingly push the stock up. Indeed, that’s what appears to have happened in the days after I predicted a big pullback (and shorting opportunity) in… Read More

A little more than 10 years ago, when the market was fixated on high-flying tech stocks like Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), a few savvy commodity investors were making a fortune on a certain industrial metal. During that time, orders for this metal were so strong, that all the mining production in the world couldn’t keep pace with demand…  To cover the shortfall, buyers had to dip into reserve stockpiles in Russia. All this drove prices for this metal skyward. Between January 2000 and February… Read More

A little more than 10 years ago, when the market was fixated on high-flying tech stocks like Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), a few savvy commodity investors were making a fortune on a certain industrial metal. During that time, orders for this metal were so strong, that all the mining production in the world couldn’t keep pace with demand…  To cover the shortfall, buyers had to dip into reserve stockpiles in Russia. All this drove prices for this metal skyward. Between January 2000 and February 2001, spot market prices surged 157% — from $430 an ounce to $1100 in a matter of months. Why do I bring this up? Because not much has changed in the past decade, and I’m seeing a similar situation play out in the market that could send this metal — palladium — soaring again. Here’s the story… #-ad_banner-#Palladium is an extremely important metal. In fact, I would say it’s indispensable for the global economy.  The metal has a multitude of uses, most notably in the dental,… Read More

Ah yes… it’s 13-F season, the time when investors’ fancies turn to what the investment gurus are buying.  Bill Ackman, the legendary value brain behind Pershing Square Capital Management, has been pretty busy these days. With a focused management style that typically involves accumulating… Read More