Forget Apple, Buy This Stock Instead

David Goodboy's picture

Wednesday, September 26, 2012 - 1:00pm

by David Goodboy

The launch of the iPhone 5 has created a media frenzy. Hailed by many consumers and critics as the best iPhone ever, this new iteration of Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) miracle product has kept all eyes focused on this once struggling computer company.

The demand has been so high that more than five million handsets were sold on the first weekend, readily beating the former record of four million units set by the iPhone 4 this past October. According to rumors, the company is preparing to launch the iPad "Mini" in October to compete with smaller, lighter rivals, such as Amazon's (Nasdaq: AMZN) Kindle Fire..

The success of the iPhone 5 has signaled a growing demand for smartphones across the globe, especially as China and other emerging markets adopt and join the information society. Apple has also made strides to increase the availability of its phones in these markets.

But with its stock soaring 74% this year to $700 a share, this investment stands out of the financial reach of all but the most well-heeled investors. Unless Apple decides to do a 10-for-1 split, most investors are forced to look elsewhere for lower priced stocks to occupy their portfolio.

But there are other ways to play this hot stock without burning a hole in your pocket.

That's why I like Nvida Corp. (Nasdaq: NVDA). The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of computer graphic processing units (GPUs) and is a friend and competitor to Apple.

Nvidia has most recently built upon its success with its line of Tegra graphic processors, which are used by Apple's competition in the tablet and smartphone arena. At the same time, Apple has chosen to use Nvidia's GeForce GT 650M notebook GPU for its Macbook Pro. Despite its steady business with competitors, it has maintained a healthy partnership with Apple as a supplier.

Though Nvidia has managed an aggressive strategy, its stock was knocked off of early August highs after a series of analyst downgrades. While I pay little attention to often-conflicting analysts, the stock's decline has setup a solid buying opportunity.

If you look at the numbers, Nvidia had a very solid second quarter. The company forecasted revenues that came in right at the top end of estimates, as it posted 15.3% sequential growth in its consumer GPU products and 35.5% sequential growth in its Tegra consumer products. In comparison, Nvidia's arch rival, Advanced Micro Devices (Nasdaq: AMD), posted a loss of 5% in the same quarter for its GPU division.

Nvidia boasts a market capitalization of about $8 billion and has a solid cash position of more than $3 billion. The company has projected that sales of its processors will grow to more than $1 billion during the next fiscal year, representing a 144% increase year-over-year.

Here's how I would trade this stock...

Risks to Consider: As in all industries, but particularly the highly innovative high-tech sector, competition is a huge threat for companies such as Nvidia. While it leads the pack right now, any competitor could announce a category-killing graphic processing unit that could knock Nvidia off its perch. Not to mention, an unknown upstart with something revolutionary in the space would quickly alter the balance of power. There is also inherent risk with the overseas factories that make the products. This has been made clear as ongoing conflicts ensue at China's Foxconn factory, which is a major parts supplier for Apple.

Action to Take --> Despite the risks and recent downgrades, I love Nvidia as a long-term investment. But I'm not going to buy until the timing is right.

Recently, as you can see in the chart above, a base has been built at the $13.25 level on the daily chart, with the price still below the 50- and 200-day simple moving average.

My plan is to wait until the 200-day simple moving average is broken on a daily close. The 200-day single moving average is currently around $13, so I'll be a buyer on any close above $14. My target price within 12 months is $19 per share (a potential 35% gain), and I would suggest stops at $12 for the $14 entry price.

David Goodboy does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.