Wednesday Winners: Jabil Circuit, CarMax and ZymoGenetics

David Sterman's picture

Wednesday, June 23, 2010 - 11:37am

by David Sterman

Among the biggest winners in Wednesday's early trading are Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), CarMax (NYSE: KMX), and ZymoGenetics (Nasdaq: ZGEN).

Top Percentage Gainers -- Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Company Name (Ticker) Intra-Day Price Intra-Day
% Gain
52-Week High 52-Week Low
Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) $14.91 +9.7% $18.49 $6.59
CarMax (NYSE: KMX) $21.74 +8.7% $26.50 $13.06
ZymoGenetics
(Nasdaq: ZGEN)
$4.58 +7.7% $7.31 $4.05

*Table includes companies with minimum market capitalizations of $200 million and three month trading volumes of at least 100,000 shares. All percentage returns are listed as of 11:30AM Eastern Standard Time. Click on ticker symbols for up-to-the-minute price quotes and percentage gain data.

Jabil’s Bright Outlook

Good news for investors of Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), and for investors everywhere that are looking for signs that the global economy is getting stronger. Jabil, which provides outsourced manufacturing services to a wide range of technology firms, delivered another impressive quarter Tuesday night, pushing shares up +9% in Wednesday trading.

You can see the company’s momentum build quarter by quarter. Fiscal first-quarter sales fell about -7% from year-earlier levels, second quarter sales rose by about +4%, and the company just announced that fiscal third quarter sales rose a whopping +32% to $3.45 billion, nicely ahead of the $3.2 billion forecast. Fiscal fourth-quarter sales are now expected to rise +25% to +30% from a year earlier to around $3.9 billion, far ahead of the $3.3 billion consensus sales estimate. Excluding a series of one-time charges, profits are also expected to exceed the consensus forecast in this fiscal fourth quarter.

Action to Take --> Is it any wonder why this is a leading gainer today? Look for analysts to boost their fiscal (August) 2011 profit forecasts from the current $1.63 to around $2. Even with shares rising smartly today, they still trade for just over seven times that upwardly revised forecast. Most impressively, Jabil never earned so much as $1 a share in years past. Management, after tinkering with costs and exiting low-margin contracts, has really built up a head of steam for Jabil.

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Used Cars in Hot Demand

Sales of new cars and trucks have rebounded at a solid clip after the recent economic crisis, yet many shoppers are still searching for a good used car to replace their aging jalopies. That trend is showing up in CarMax’s (NYSE: KMX) quarterly results. The nation’s largest seller of used cars noted on Wednesday morning that fiscal first quarter sales rose an impressive +23%, nearly double the growth rate that analysts had been expecting. And that led to a 33% upside profit surprise, marking the fifth straight quarter in which profits exceeded forecasts by a wide margin. That’s pushing shares up +9% today.

CarMax has a strong reputation among institutional investors. The company has typically earned a fairly high rate of return on invested capital (ROIC) by identifying store locales and by making vehicle purchasing decisions that will give it the best bang for the buck. CarMax makes roughly $2,000 on every car it sells, which is higher than almost all independent used car dealers. And the company sure moves a lot of metal. More than 100,000 cars were sold off its lots at its 103 locations in the May quarter -- the highest amount in several years.

Action to Take --> Growth rates should moderate from here, as the auto retailer comes up against tougher year-over-year comparisons. Look for CarMax to earn close to $2 a share in fiscal (February) 2012, much higher than the current consensus $1.40 forecast. It may take awhile for the consensus to rise that high as management won’t issue fresh guidance until next winter, and many analysts may neglect to extrapolate the first quarter strength into subsequent quarters. Even after today’s spike, shares trade for a very reasonable 11 times 2012 profits, and may eventually trade up to be valued at 14 or 15 times earnings, good for a +30% to +35% gain.

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ZymoGenetics gets an Upgrade

It’s always helpful when analyst's lay out a clear and simple case for a stock. UBS has just upgraded ZymoGenetics (Nasdaq: ZGEN) to "buy," with a $6.50 price target. They note that shares are undervalued, after falling from $6.50 in mid-April to a recent $4.27. Shares are getting a +7% boost on Wednesday.

ZymoGenetics is pursuing a number of promising drugs, and the UBS analysts have placed a value on each one. For example, its Recothrom drug, which controls moderate bleeding and is already on the market, is worth $1.59 a share. Three other drugs that are in the midst of clinical trials are worth a collective $3 a share, and the company also has $1.89 a share in cash. Add it up, and you’re just two pennies shy of that $6.50 price target.

Action to Take --> As with any biotech firm, the actual value of those three in-development drugs will be a lot more or less than UBS believes, depending on whether the trials are a success and they get the FDA nod. But this does look like a nice combination of proven value (Recothrom plus cash), that likely puts a $3.50 floor on the stock. Even after Wednesday’s spike, shares still have +30% upside to UBS’ target price.

David Sterman does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.