Tom Vician, Chief Investment Strategist of Alpha Trader, updates each portfolio with up to 10 of the highest-rated "Alpha Score" stocks twice a month. Tom is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with more than 20 years' of trading experience and a profitable history of using trading systems to manage money for investors. Tom began at Merrill Lynch, working for two of the largest producing brokers as a Series 7 licensed assistant before starting a yearlong apprenticeship with one of the world's top traders. There he learned the nuances of trend following, system development, risk management and technical analysis. Tom moved on to managing money full time, and in 2006, became portfolio manager for a $20 million hedge fund/commodity pool operator. Currently, Tom manages a portfolio of private growth equity assets and develops quantitative trading systems. His Absolute Return Program offers back-tested, algorithmically-based portfolio management diversified across equities, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities. Tom has earned his Series 3 (Commodity) and Series 65 (Investment Advisor Representative) licenses, and has published educational white papers for the Market Technicians Association, of which he co-chairs the Austin chapter.

Analyst Articles

It’s been said that trading is the hardest way to make easy money. And after more than two decades in the markets, I wholeheartedly agree. The vast majority of investment advisors, brokers and portfolio managers concentrate nearly all of their efforts on what to buy. They do extensive research and create compelling narratives describing why this or that stock is an excellent choice to own.  Picking the right investment vehicle is certainly an important part of the process. What goes into your portfolio is absolutely critical for success; poor prospects lead to poor results.  #-ad_banner-#Personally, I rely on a proprietary… Read More

It’s been said that trading is the hardest way to make easy money. And after more than two decades in the markets, I wholeheartedly agree. The vast majority of investment advisors, brokers and portfolio managers concentrate nearly all of their efforts on what to buy. They do extensive research and create compelling narratives describing why this or that stock is an excellent choice to own.  Picking the right investment vehicle is certainly an important part of the process. What goes into your portfolio is absolutely critical for success; poor prospects lead to poor results.  #-ad_banner-#Personally, I rely on a proprietary indicator called the Alpha Score to find the best stocks to own. It delivered 16 double-digit winners last year — despite the deteriorating market in the second half of 2015. (You can learn how it did that here.) But picking the right time to buy is only part of the process. You also have to know the right time to sell.  I’m not the only one who thinks this, either. While very few newsletters or investing services discuss the importance of selling, it’s a popular topic among many of the best investors and traders on the… Read More

It’s been a tough year for investors. The S&P 500 tanked more than 11% by the middle of February on crashing oil prices, concerns over China and Europe’s health, and a “hawkish” Federal Reserve that planned to hike short-term interest rates. Then the market pivoted faster than basketball superstar LeBron James inside the key. The rebound rally that followed was one of the fastest in history, but the S&P 500 is still up just 1% year to date. #-ad_banner-#However, in the midst of all this volatility, there have been some clear outperformers. Read More

It’s been a tough year for investors. The S&P 500 tanked more than 11% by the middle of February on crashing oil prices, concerns over China and Europe’s health, and a “hawkish” Federal Reserve that planned to hike short-term interest rates. Then the market pivoted faster than basketball superstar LeBron James inside the key. The rebound rally that followed was one of the fastest in history, but the S&P 500 is still up just 1% year to date. #-ad_banner-#However, in the midst of all this volatility, there have been some clear outperformers. Nine of the 12 open positions in the Alpha Trader portfolios are up double digits year to date. That’s more than 10 times better than the S&P 500. For those of you who aren’t familiar with it, Alpha Trader is an exclusive research service that uses a proprietary indicator known as the Alpha Score, delivering the highest-ranked stocks across 10 different types of investments that range from small caps to blue chips. While I don’t want to give out all the names of this year’s top performers, here are three… Read More

We’ve all heard the trading adage, “Sell in May and go away.” This annual warning tells investors to pull all of their money out of stocks on May 1 and keep it out until Nov. 1. “Sell in May” isn’t a cliche or an old traders’ tale; it’s supported by data. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:       After decades of historical research, we discovered that most market gains occur during the months November through April. Investing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 1st and April 30th each year and… Read More

We’ve all heard the trading adage, “Sell in May and go away.” This annual warning tells investors to pull all of their money out of stocks on May 1 and keep it out until Nov. 1. “Sell in May” isn’t a cliche or an old traders’ tale; it’s supported by data. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:       After decades of historical research, we discovered that most market gains occur during the months November through April. Investing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 1st and April 30th each year and then switching into fixed income for the other six months has produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950. That being said, I know many traders, myself included, aren’t content to sit on the sidelines for half the year. So, to make money in these trickier summer months, they need an edge. #-ad_banner-#I have uncovered just such an edge that can help you land big winners year round, and I plan to share it with you. But first, I promised to alert you to four big-name stocks you most definitely should sell… Read More

Natural resource stocks were the worst-performing group in 2015, with the sector plummeting nearly 27%. But since its January lows, this group has been on a tear, more than doubling the return of the benchmark S&P 500.  That’s right, the long-dormant sector finally looks like it’s back from the dead.  Up until a few weeks ago, natural resource stocks had been mauled by a multiyear bear market. At its 2016 low, the sector was down nearly 50% from its June 2014 high. Adding insult to injury, the decline lasted twice as long as the 2008 bear market.  The… Read More

Natural resource stocks were the worst-performing group in 2015, with the sector plummeting nearly 27%. But since its January lows, this group has been on a tear, more than doubling the return of the benchmark S&P 500.  That’s right, the long-dormant sector finally looks like it’s back from the dead.  Up until a few weeks ago, natural resource stocks had been mauled by a multiyear bear market. At its 2016 low, the sector was down nearly 50% from its June 2014 high. Adding insult to injury, the decline lasted twice as long as the 2008 bear market.  The sector’s poor performance was due to a trifecta of bearish factors that slammed precious metals and industrial commodities. #-ad_banner-#For starters, both rising interest rates and a rally in the U.S. dollar weighed heavily on precious metals, resulting in a four-year secular bear market in gold. The dollar has been rising on improving U.S. economic conditions and declining prospects in Europe. Economic weakness in Europe has the European Central Bank working to weaken the value of the euro, which makes the greenback stronger by comparison. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, when the value of the dollar goes up, the… Read More

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) was one of this decade’s hottest stocks — surging more than 700% from about $90 a share at the start of 2010 to a high above $750 in August of last year. Investors seemed as crazy about the stock as customers were about the casual Mexican chain’s burritos.  During that time, annual sales tripled and the number of stores across the country and the globe roughly doubled to about 2,000. But after several Chipotle locations were plagued with outbreaks of E. coli and other food-borne illnesses, customers and investors rushed for the exits. Read More

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) was one of this decade’s hottest stocks — surging more than 700% from about $90 a share at the start of 2010 to a high above $750 in August of last year. Investors seemed as crazy about the stock as customers were about the casual Mexican chain’s burritos.  During that time, annual sales tripled and the number of stores across the country and the globe roughly doubled to about 2,000. But after several Chipotle locations were plagued with outbreaks of E. coli and other food-borne illnesses, customers and investors rushed for the exits. For a company that bases its reputation on high-quality food offerings, or what Chipotle calls “food with integrity,” the negative media attention that followed was particularly damaging, and shares plummeted nearly 50% in five months. But in mid-January, as the stock dipped below $400 and its P/E ratio fell to a level not seen since 2010, bargain hunters stepped in. #-ad_banner-# Shares jumped 36% before another Norovirus outbreak in early March stopped them in their tracks. They now sit just 13% above their January lows. And no doubt some of you are wondering whether you’re getting a second… Read More

I constantly scour the market for stocks on the cusp of major bullish trend changes, but over the past few months, there has been little opportunity thanks to the market correction. When the headwinds blow that hard, few ships can sail. But with stocks rebounding sharply off their February lows and the broader market S&P 500 in the black for the first time this year, my Alpha Trader system is once again lighting up with fresh buy signals. #-ad_banner-# For those of you who aren’t familiar, I use a quantitative system to rank 6,000 publicly traded U.S. stocks… Read More

I constantly scour the market for stocks on the cusp of major bullish trend changes, but over the past few months, there has been little opportunity thanks to the market correction. When the headwinds blow that hard, few ships can sail. But with stocks rebounding sharply off their February lows and the broader market S&P 500 in the black for the first time this year, my Alpha Trader system is once again lighting up with fresh buy signals. #-ad_banner-# For those of you who aren’t familiar, I use a quantitative system to rank 6,000 publicly traded U.S. stocks based on a proprietary indicator known as the Alpha Score. This indicator combines an equity’s relative strength and a key fundamental metric favored by investment luminaries such as Don Yacktman, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Every stock has an Alpha Score, and it can range from 0 (worst) to 200 (best). I only consider buying stocks in the top 30th percentile, but typically their scores put them in the top 15th, 10th, or even top 5th percentile. These are the stocks most likely to jump double or triple digits in less than a year’s… Read More

Today, I’m going to do something I don’t usually do… For those of you who don’t know me, I’m the chief investment strategist of Profitable Trading’s premium Alpha Trader service.  I am a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with more than 20 years of trading experience and a profitable history of using trading systems to manage money for investors. The Alpha Trader system combines proven technical and fundamental indicators to find market-beating investments for 10 different portfolios. And today, I’m going to share one of the picks I just recommended to my subscribers. It comes from our Doublers Portfolio, which covers… Read More

Today, I’m going to do something I don’t usually do… For those of you who don’t know me, I’m the chief investment strategist of Profitable Trading’s premium Alpha Trader service.  I am a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with more than 20 years of trading experience and a profitable history of using trading systems to manage money for investors. The Alpha Trader system combines proven technical and fundamental indicators to find market-beating investments for 10 different portfolios. And today, I’m going to share one of the picks I just recommended to my subscribers. It comes from our Doublers Portfolio, which covers top-rated small-cap stocks likely to double in the next 12 months. #-ad_banner-# If you’re not an Alpha Trader subscriber, I’d venture to say you’ve never heard of this company, but it’s hitting it out of the park with its nut business.  That’s right — nuts.  John B Sanfilippo & Son (Nasdaq: JBSS) processes, markets and distributes nuts like pecans, cashews, peanuts, walnuts and almonds in dry roast, oil roast, salted, unsalted, trail mix, chocolate and yogurt-covered varieties under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest… Read More

There are countless investing rules, mantras and cliches out there ranging from extremely useful to downright dangerous.  #-ad_banner-#One of the most widely accepted and potentially detrimental to your portfolio is, “Buy low, sell high.” When taken literally, of course, to make a profit you must sell a stock for more than you paid for it. But the essence of buy low, sell high has become one of the costliest myths on Wall Street. Investors have been trained to think that “undervalued” stocks have the most upside potential. The problem is that this approach often causes investors to overlook… Read More

There are countless investing rules, mantras and cliches out there ranging from extremely useful to downright dangerous.  #-ad_banner-#One of the most widely accepted and potentially detrimental to your portfolio is, “Buy low, sell high.” When taken literally, of course, to make a profit you must sell a stock for more than you paid for it. But the essence of buy low, sell high has become one of the costliest myths on Wall Street. Investors have been trained to think that “undervalued” stocks have the most upside potential. The problem is that this approach often causes investors to overlook the market’s best-performing stocks in favor of the ones doing the worst. Since underperforming investments usually sport lower valuations, investors tend to think these stocks are the more attractive buys. And nothing could be further from the truth. I’ll get into this in more detail in a moment, because today I want to share my three golden rules of investing.  I’ve honed  them over my two-decade-plus career in the markets. They are the foundation of investment success. They are non-negotiable. And while they may seem simple, many investors fail to abide by them, which all but guarantees failure. Golden Rule… Read More

In my 23 years as a trader and money manager, I’ve never seen anything that’s anywhere near as effective at finding stocks before they break out than what I’m about to share with you. And believe me, I’ve seen it all over the course of my more-than-two-decade career.  I’ve been trading and managing money since I graduated college — from the roaring technology bull market of the 1990s to the bear market of 2001 and financial collapse of 2008. I worked with famed technical trader Ed Seykota and helped him develop and test one of the very first quantitative relative… Read More

In my 23 years as a trader and money manager, I’ve never seen anything that’s anywhere near as effective at finding stocks before they break out than what I’m about to share with you. And believe me, I’ve seen it all over the course of my more-than-two-decade career.  I’ve been trading and managing money since I graduated college — from the roaring technology bull market of the 1990s to the bear market of 2001 and financial collapse of 2008. I worked with famed technical trader Ed Seykota and helped him develop and test one of the very first quantitative relative strength stock trading systems. I managed $20 million for a hedge fund. Along the way, I studied and tested dozens of technical indicators and triggers. #-ad_banner-# I even went so far as to become a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). This certification designed by the Market Technician’s Association signifies mastery of technical analysis. Thanks to the brutal, three-part, 10-hour test required for certification, it’s a pretty exclusive club — with just 1,400 members in the entire United States. In fact, only 57% of those… Read More

Investors are wondering when the pain is going to end. The S&P 500 has plummeted more than 10% since late December to trade at levels not seen since late 2014. That’s a full-blown correction in just over three weeks’ time.  It’s hard not to let your emotions get the best of you in a time like this, which is why many investors panic and rush for the exits, willing to sell at any price. They often end up regretting their rashness when stocks bounce back from oversold levels. Even if the market does not fully recover, chances are… Read More

Investors are wondering when the pain is going to end. The S&P 500 has plummeted more than 10% since late December to trade at levels not seen since late 2014. That’s a full-blown correction in just over three weeks’ time.  It’s hard not to let your emotions get the best of you in a time like this, which is why many investors panic and rush for the exits, willing to sell at any price. They often end up regretting their rashness when stocks bounce back from oversold levels. Even if the market does not fully recover, chances are they could have gotten out at a better price if they had kept a cooler head. Then there are the bottom fishers who view such selling as an opportunity. They start scavenging the wreckage for beaten-down names in hopes of scoring a great deal. #-ad_banner-# But this can be a precarious strategy, even in a solid market, which we are most certainly not in. Trends tend to persist, and trying to guess when and where a downtrend will stop can wind up being very costly. No doubt you’ve heard the phrase, “Never try to catch a… Read More