A Timely Trade Is At Hand For These Young Stocks

The impressive early gains for camera maker GoPro (Nasdaq: GPRO) didn’t come in a vacuum. The company’s IPO was launched in the midst of a veritable frenzy of new issues. 

#-ad_banner-#In just the past few weeks, a wide variety of companies have come public, and plans are in place to maintain the frenzied pace throughout July as well.

Anytime you see such a large group of new IPOs in a short period of time, a trading opportunity invariably emerges: The stocks start trading, often shoot higher, and then momentum investors start to lose interest, leading shares to drift lower. 

That’s where Wall Street analysts come in. If they are affiliated with the firm that underwrote the IPO, then these analysts can issue their new research coverage on these firms after an appropriate waiting period (25 calendar days after the IPO for companies with less than $1 billion in revenue and 40 days for larger firms). 

Such research often gives new stocks a boost (known as the “quiet period bounce”) because the analysts’ target prices are often higher than the current trading price.

Of course, any IPO that has already sharply surged in price may not see such a bounce. GoPro is already trading at $42, well above the $28 target price of Dougherty & Co., which was able to issue research early in the process. (Dougherty didn’t participate in the IPO and was thus freed to start reporting right away.) It’s unlikely that analysts will have target prices higher than GoPro’s current price.

Here’s a quick look at other recent IPOs that may not get a boost from analysts — unless they drop in price in coming sessions.

Yet an even greater group of new IPOs has failed to get much of a lift from the IPO, and trade either just above or below the offering price. 

To see why these stocks are soon likely to see favorable analyst coverage, you need to know how the game is played. 

Investment bankers set the pricing terms for an IPO to ensure robust demand for shares. Often, their internal memos will cite even higher potential target prices than what is placed on the deal. The last thing a banker wants is to overprice a deal and then face the embarrassment of a lack of buyers or a drop in the proposed offering price. Meanwhile, the analysts that eventually end up following these companies haven’t had nearly the exposure to the companies being brought public as their banking peers have. So the analysts often take what the bankers give them, slaps their names on it — and voila, a research report is created. 

With that in mind, here are the recent IPOs that appear poised to benefit from lofty analyst target prices.

Note that some of these companies are up 10% to 25% from the offering price. That reduces the amount of further upside, given analysts’ target prices are often 20% to 30% above the offering price. Still, it pays to watch these stocks in coming days, because if they start to pull back, they will again be capable of receiving the quiet-period bounce.

Risks to Consider: IPOs will probably be among the most vulnerable stocks on the market if there is a broad sell-off in coming weeks or months. That’s because these stocks have not yet formed long-term shareholder bases that will stand by them in tough times.

Action to Take –> The IPO market is expected to remain strong for the next few months, at least until bankers decide it is time to take the rest of August off and hit the beach house. That means you can track all the new issues to come as well. The perfect setup for a quiet-period bounce is when the market hits a temporary rough patch. The new IPOs may suddenly end up being underwater, only to be rescued by analysts and their lofty price targets a few weeks later. 

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