This Out-Of-Favor Retailer Now Has 64% Upside

Although the market has recovered from the  October selloff, buying opportunities can still be had. The key is to focus on stocks which have been beset by recent company-specific woes, but still possess long-term appeal.

#-ad_banner-#One example: Vitamin Shoppe, Inc. (NYSE: VSI), which has lagged consensus profit forecasts for two-straight quarters. An especially pronounced 10% shortfall in Q3 was mainly the result of higher acquisition costs. Shares of Vitamin Shoppe are now off 10% year-to-date, versus more than a 12% gain for the S&P 500.

But the recent price decline is a temporary setback that only adds to the stock’s long-term appeal.

That’s because this leading provider of vitamins, supplements and other health-related products is taking steps to reinvigorate sales and profits.

Recent troubles aside, the Vitamin Shoppe has consistently shown strong top-line improvement. From 2008 to 2013, revenues surged from around $600 million to nearly $1.1 billion. Analysts anticipate 11%-to-12% growth in 2014 and 2015, by which time sales are expected to approach $1.4 billion.

Like most successful retailers, the Vitamin Shoppe has been able to boost sales by carving out a large base of loyal customers. For example, its no-fee “Healthy Awards Program” allows customers to earn points, which can be applied toward future purchases.

Excluding the contribution of Seattle-based Super Supplements, a small chain the Vitamin Shoppe acquired early last year for about $50 million, Healthy Awards customers account for nearly 90% of sales, management says. Vitamin Shoppe currently has 6.1 million Healthy Awards customers, up from about four million a couple years ago.

After soaring 7%-to-8% in 2010, 2011 and again in 2012, comparable store sales growth has pulled back to a more realistic 3%-to-4%. At that rate, Vitamin Shoppe is still well-positioned to prosper in the long-term, thanks to strong customer loyalty.

The e-commerce business, which accounts for 11% of total sales, is a particular bright spot. Because management has worked to enhance the online shopping experience and make the firm’s portal a more effective marketing tool, e-commerce sales have greatly improved during the past five years. As the following table shows, the company’s website now typically posts mid- to high-double-digit sales increases each year.

In addition to constant upgrades for its e-commerce operations, Vitamin Shoppe intends to expand its physical footprint — it currently has 700 stores in the United States and abroad. The company is on track to finish the year with 60 new stores and plans to open a similar number in 2015.

New stores will be about 3,000 square feet, or nearly 17% smaller than existing ones, since management believes this will optimize store productivity. Management also thinks the U.S. market can support up to 900 Vitamin Shoppe locations. This means robust domestic expansion should persist for another three-to-five years before it begins to decelerate.

After that, management will clearly have to pursue more aggressive global growth to maintain forward momentum. Vitamin Shoppe has barely tapped non-domestic markets so far and only has a handful of locations in Canada, Puerto Rico and Panama. But that suggests there should be enough opportunities for rapid international expansion to last at least a decade, particularly since many foreign markets don’t yet have high levels of competition or product availability present domestically.

Vitamin Shoppe certainly has a financial foundation conducive to future growth: The company has no  debt and a near-record cash position of $74 million. At $55 million, annual free cash flow has never been greater and is more than double the 2009 level of $22 million.

Provided it executes as before, Vitamin Shoppe should comfortably achieve the 11.5%-a-year earnings growth that analysts are projecting. Such results could easily push the stock up to $77 from about $47 currently.

Risks To Consider: Although relatively uncommon, product safety issues can be a significant problem for Vitamin Shoppe. Last year, for example, sales of the Vitamin Shoppe’s weight management products fell because of negative publicity surrounding DMAA, an ingredient linked to serious side effects such as panic attacks, seizures, strokes and heart attacks.

Action To Take –> Don’t let the recent decline in shares of Vitamin Shoppe deter you. The company remains a leader in the $23 billion vitamins and supplements industry, and the pullback has set the stage for a potential 64% long-term gain. Shareholders could see even greater gains if a rumored buyout by much larger rival GNC Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: GNC) comes to pass. GNC would likely end up paying a hefty premium for a company of the Vitamin Shoppe’s caliber.

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