After flirting with the major psychological milestone of 20,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally eclipsed the mark on Wednesday, January 25. It seems as if nearly everything has been going up since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. With this bull market going on eight years, it’s hard to believe there’s any stock out there that hasn’t seen a surge. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats, right? But believe it or not, there’s one sector that’s fallen for six straight years — a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since the Great Depression. At some point, the pain and… Read More

After flirting with the major psychological milestone of 20,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally eclipsed the mark on Wednesday, January 25. It seems as if nearly everything has been going up since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. With this bull market going on eight years, it’s hard to believe there’s any stock out there that hasn’t seen a surge. After all, a rising tide lifts all boats, right? But believe it or not, there’s one sector that’s fallen for six straight years — a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since the Great Depression. At some point, the pain and suffering have to end. There is no lower low. The bad luck runs out eventually… and when such a hated and beaten down sector finally turns the corner, huge returns typically follow. Consider coal. After five consecutive down years — and an 87% plunge — coal stocks finally turned the corner and rallied 98% in 2016, making it the best-performing industry of the year. Gold shares a similar story. From highs in 2011, prices dropped about 45% to the 2015 lows before rallying about 30% in the first half of last year. —Recommended Link— Want A… Read More

Save for early punk rock and a few obscure power pop bands, I’m not a huge fan of ’70s rock-n-roll. Rooted as a blues band in the late ’60s, the Steve Miller Band grooved into the ’70s and managed to crank out a few catchy radio mega-hits that are still staples of classic rock radio to today. Ok. You know where I’m going with this, don’t you? When stocks rally big time, I can hear the “Hoo! Hoo!” vocal hook of the SMB’s “Take the Money and Run” in my head as valuations get pushed to what I consider silly… Read More

Save for early punk rock and a few obscure power pop bands, I’m not a huge fan of ’70s rock-n-roll. Rooted as a blues band in the late ’60s, the Steve Miller Band grooved into the ’70s and managed to crank out a few catchy radio mega-hits that are still staples of classic rock radio to today. Ok. You know where I’m going with this, don’t you? When stocks rally big time, I can hear the “Hoo! Hoo!” vocal hook of the SMB’s “Take the Money and Run” in my head as valuations get pushed to what I consider silly levels. I’m hearing it now as I look at a few stocks in the oil sector. Black gold has been on an absolute tear since the beginning of 2016. After a merciless pounding thanks to the one-two punch of a strong dollar and a global supply glut, oil has rallied 46% to nearly $54/bbl from its basement low of $37/bbl. Is there any room left in the oil rally? Maybe. OPEC members recently reached an agreement to curb production by 2% with the goal of creating price stability and curbing the surplus. On the domestic front, rig count… Read More

The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has jumped 15% in the last month and is nearly double its February low. The first agreement for an OPEC production cut in 15 years has sent energy prices and stocks soaring. But has the energy market really shrugged off the problems that sent crude to a 13-year low? #-ad_banner-#There’s evidence that non-OPEC producers may be getting ready for the second great boom in production. That could force OPEC’s hand and send oil prices into another downward spiral. Energy stocks have surged higher on the relief rally but I’ve… Read More

The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has jumped 15% in the last month and is nearly double its February low. The first agreement for an OPEC production cut in 15 years has sent energy prices and stocks soaring. But has the energy market really shrugged off the problems that sent crude to a 13-year low? #-ad_banner-#There’s evidence that non-OPEC producers may be getting ready for the second great boom in production. That could force OPEC’s hand and send oil prices into another downward spiral. Energy stocks have surged higher on the relief rally but I’ve found two that still carry dangerous amounts of debt. Another drop in crude and investors could be in for a rude awakening. OPEC Becomes The Shale Drillers’ Best Friend Oil prices jumped again this week when more non-OPEC countries agreed to cut 2017 production and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said his country would cut further below where it had agreed in the late-November agreement. OPEC and a group of non-OPEC members including Russia agreed last month to a combined cut of up to 1.5 million barrels per day from their current production levels. The announcement sent the price… Read More

I love finding stealth rallies in the financial markets. These under-the-radar moves higher are ignored by the financial media and therefore by most investors.  Stealth rallies occur for any number of reasons. Primarily, these types of upward moves happen in commodities or stocks that have been beaten down for so long that the public simply loses interest in them.  #-ad_banner-#A stealth rally starts by attracting the attention of only the most diehard followers. These early investors quietly pocket huge gains while the rest of the investment community is chasing the latest hot stocks or futures.  Right now, a stealth rally… Read More

I love finding stealth rallies in the financial markets. These under-the-radar moves higher are ignored by the financial media and therefore by most investors.  Stealth rallies occur for any number of reasons. Primarily, these types of upward moves happen in commodities or stocks that have been beaten down for so long that the public simply loses interest in them.  #-ad_banner-#A stealth rally starts by attracting the attention of only the most diehard followers. These early investors quietly pocket huge gains while the rest of the investment community is chasing the latest hot stocks or futures.  Right now, a stealth rally is taking place in a commodity that has not been in the headlines for a while. Once a darling of the financial media, this commodity has been beaten down so severely it is rarely mentioned in the daily financial press. After being hailed as the savior of the United States’ energy future, this commodity quickly became over-produced. It may have succeeded in revitalizing U.S. energy, but its price continued to plunge lower as the years passed.  In case you haven’t guessed it, I am referencing natural gas. The widespread use of fracking created an oversupply of the commodity, resulting in… Read More

I am about to make a bold call on the future price of gold. Clearly, no one knows the future, but I firmly think that the preponderance of the evidence points toward dramatically lower prices for the yellow metal over the next 24 months. In fact, I expect gold prices… Read More

Its value has fallen 98% in the last 113 years. Yet, despite that incredible decline it remains one of the most valuable and sought after assets in the world. I’m talking about the U.S. dollar. #-ad_banner-#Since 1913, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen more than 98%.  This is the reason gold is delivering its best return in five years and showing signs of a long-term reversal in 2016. After hitting a new all-time high above $1,900 in 2011, gold fell into a nasty bear market. From 2012 to the end of 2015, the price of gold fell almost… Read More

Its value has fallen 98% in the last 113 years. Yet, despite that incredible decline it remains one of the most valuable and sought after assets in the world. I’m talking about the U.S. dollar. #-ad_banner-#Since 1913, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen more than 98%.  This is the reason gold is delivering its best return in five years and showing signs of a long-term reversal in 2016. After hitting a new all-time high above $1,900 in 2011, gold fell into a nasty bear market. From 2012 to the end of 2015, the price of gold fell almost 50%. In 2016, gold is on the rebound. The price of gold is up 26%, more than a 300% premium to the S&P 500’s 6% return. That puts gold on pace for its best return in more than five years. Gold’s sudden reversal is being driven by the same trend that’s driving the U.S. dollar. After surging in 2014 and 2015, the U.S. dollar is back to its losing ways in 2016, falling 4% on the year. Take a look below at the U.S. dollar’s big surge in 2014 and 2015 and decline in 2016. The… Read More

Humans are creatures of habit. And since financial markets are, basically, a gigantic stew of the basest and most extreme of human nature, they too are creatures of habit. Things look bad? Get in there and sell, sell, sell! Things look good? Get in there and buy, buy, buy! Basic patterns often result in predictable results, and after a year or so into the energy bear market I’ve identified an interesting inflection point in the price of oil. It’s in the relationship between the prices of the two main oil benchmarks: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude. I’ve noticed… Read More

Humans are creatures of habit. And since financial markets are, basically, a gigantic stew of the basest and most extreme of human nature, they too are creatures of habit. Things look bad? Get in there and sell, sell, sell! Things look good? Get in there and buy, buy, buy! Basic patterns often result in predictable results, and after a year or so into the energy bear market I’ve identified an interesting inflection point in the price of oil. It’s in the relationship between the prices of the two main oil benchmarks: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude. I’ve noticed that whenever the prices of the two benchmarks reach parity, there’s typically a decent rally in oil prices. These charts show that.       When both Brent and WTI reached $44 a barrel, oil bounced better than 10%. It looks like we’re approaching the same inflection point. Here’s how to profit. The best way I’ve found to play oil directly is through using the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Total Return Index Exchange Traded Note (NYSE: OIL). OIL trades closest with WTI. Currently, OIL trades at around $5.39. This security pays no dividend or distribution so… Read More

Back in 1991, rapper LL Cool J released his single, “Mama Said Knock You Out,” which famously begins with this line: “Don’t call it a comeback/I’ve been here for years.” The story goes that many critics thought LL’s career was on the decline when his grandmother told him to “knock out” all the naysayers. The single became a number-one hit. #-ad_banner-#Well, something similar could be said about OPEC’s surge back to the top of the production line. Saudi Arabia has reclaimed its spot as the top oil producer, besting the United States with 12.58 million barrels of oil a day… Read More

Back in 1991, rapper LL Cool J released his single, “Mama Said Knock You Out,” which famously begins with this line: “Don’t call it a comeback/I’ve been here for years.” The story goes that many critics thought LL’s career was on the decline when his grandmother told him to “knock out” all the naysayers. The single became a number-one hit. #-ad_banner-#Well, something similar could be said about OPEC’s surge back to the top of the production line. Saudi Arabia has reclaimed its spot as the top oil producer, besting the United States with 12.58 million barrels of oil a day in August, versus 12.2 million produced in the United States. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Saudi Arabia added 400,000 barrels a day of production last month. At the same time, the United States took 460,000 barrels a day out of its production. This shift is exactly what Saudi Arabia and OPEC were hoping for. It’s been keeping the taps on its competitors and driving down oil prices in order to price out high-cost shale oil production in the United States. It worked. Investment in shale oil has fallen 66% since 2014, according to Rystad Energy and Bloomberg. And… Read More

Don’t look now, but commodities are finally making a big comeback.  If you peruse the Lifetime Wealth Generators and Undiscovered High-Yielders portfolios in my High-Yield Investing premium newsletter, you won’t find a single stock tied directly to the production of energy or metals. There are several midstream partnerships that transport the stuff, but none that actually dig it out of the ground.  #-ad_banner-#That underweighting has served us well, as commodities have been stuck in a multi-year swoon. Everyone knows that oil plunged from $100 to around $25 per barrel. And gold bugs were dismayed last November when the metal sunk… Read More

Don’t look now, but commodities are finally making a big comeback.  If you peruse the Lifetime Wealth Generators and Undiscovered High-Yielders portfolios in my High-Yield Investing premium newsletter, you won’t find a single stock tied directly to the production of energy or metals. There are several midstream partnerships that transport the stuff, but none that actually dig it out of the ground.  #-ad_banner-#That underweighting has served us well, as commodities have been stuck in a multi-year swoon. Everyone knows that oil plunged from $100 to around $25 per barrel. And gold bugs were dismayed last November when the metal sunk to a 6-year low of $1,070 per ounce, about half its former highs above $1,900.  Copper, platinum, coal, iron ore and many other resources have all been in the same leaky boat.  Just look at the PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF (NYSE: DBC), which reflects the prices of everything from gasoline to zinc to sugar. From the beginning of 2014 through the end of 2015, the fund lost half its value, sliding from $25.08 to $13.36. Along the way, investors yanked out more than $1 billion in assets.  But this cyclical group is making a strong recovery in 2016. In… Read More

Oil prices are dragging down the market this morning as we got news that China is ramping up exports of refined products and the U.S. rig count increased again. But lately, I’ve been hearing a saying again and again in regard to oil prices: “Low prices are a cure for low prices.” Pithy “truths” like this make for a good quip, but they tend to overlook a number of important factors, like the forces responsible for the price slump and whether those forces are actually changing direction. For example, even though oil prices have been low for nearly two years… Read More

Oil prices are dragging down the market this morning as we got news that China is ramping up exports of refined products and the U.S. rig count increased again. But lately, I’ve been hearing a saying again and again in regard to oil prices: “Low prices are a cure for low prices.” Pithy “truths” like this make for a good quip, but they tend to overlook a number of important factors, like the forces responsible for the price slump and whether those forces are actually changing direction. For example, even though oil prices have been low for nearly two years now, we still haven’t seen a transition to a recovery for energy companies. If low prices aren’t triggering increased consumption, then the problem doesn’t lie with prices, but with the economy itself. —Sponsored Link— Protect Yourself From ‘Market Shaking’ Events Get your free email alerts containing breaking market headlines, political and world news, sudden movements of stocks, bonds, metals, commodities and more that can have a positive or negative impact on your portfolio. Politics and My Portfolio’s mission is to provide investors with timely and reliable information to protect themselves. Subscribe… Read More