This Could Be The Best Buying Opportunity In Years…
It’s baaack. Market volatility, that is, and just in time for Halloween.
Yes, the recent 8% haircut in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 12% slide for the Nasdaq, and 16% tumble for the Russell 2000 were a bit unnerving for all of us, especially after a quiet, and relatively bullish summer. With last Wednesday’s 3% to 4% rout capping the pullback, the markets had officially given back all their gains for 2018.
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But guess what? This is GREAT NEWS!
Yes, the markets are pricing in legitimate fears. Global slowdown, trade wars, an uncertain midterm election, and rising interest rates are all behind the market correction we’ve seen this month. But these are side issues, not the real story.
#-ad_banner-#The real story is the U.S. economy is strong and not showing any signs of getting weaker (the housing market is the only exception, due to rising mortgage rates). Employment is full, corporate profits are at record levels, companies are increasing spending on capital expenditures, mergers and acquisitions are plentiful, upside earnings estimates revisions far outweigh companies lowering guidance, all leading economic indicators are rising and at levels that are historically incompatible with a recession and, until this month, the stock market was trading at new all-time highs.
This is why I believe the current correction is a great opportunity to buy or add to current stock positions, particularly those in our Extreme Tech Profits portfolio. And it could not have come at a better time.
Did you know that…
…while October is the most volatile month of the year, historically, as you’ll see in the chart below, the last four days of October are the most bullish four-day period of the year, averaging a gain in the S&P 500 of 0.91%?
…the fourth quarter of every midterm election year (this year) is the most bullish of all 16 quarters of the Presidential cycle? The S&P 500 has been higher in this quarter 21 of the past 21 times, going back to 1934.
In a midterm Q4, as you’ll see below, the markets gain on average between 7.1% and 8.6% over three months. Moreover, the three-quarter period (Q4 of the midterm year to Q2 of the following year) is the most bullish nine-month season of the cycle, with the markets averaging a gain of between 20.4% and 32%:
…and that the recent selloff was so extreme, and market sentiment so bearish, that it knocked CNN’s “Fear and Greed Index” to a low of 6 on Wednesday on a scale from 1 to 100. And get this: any reading below 20 has historically been a great place to buy stocks, as the chart below shows:
Putting all this together, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this market correction is a gift. Although it’s possible “this time things are different,” odds favor a strong end-of-year run that should also carry on into the first half of next year.
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So, take heart. We are likely close to a bottom here, and we are about to enter into the most bullish period of this four-year stretch. It may be close to Halloween, but don’t let a market correction scare you away from what may be the best buying opportunity in years.
Now here’s the really great news… As my Extreme Tech Profits subscribers are well aware, our portfolio of smaller, cutting-edge tech stock picks is highly-leveraged to the broader markets — which means we could see moves of 50% or more in some stocks from current price levels.
That makes right now the perfect time to learn more about my strategy for finding the best tech stocks the market has to offer. We’re talking about little-known companies that are innovating and growing like crazy. And because they aren’t your typical household names, they have the promise to deliver major gains once the crowd catches on. If you’d like to learn more about what we’re researching, simply go here.