Surprising Economic Data, And Plenty Of “Buy” Signals
Traders were surprised by the news this morning. According to CNBC, the May jobs report showed a gain of 2.5 million jobs. Economists were expecting a loss of 8.33 million jobs.
The article states, “As it turned out, May’s numbers showed the U.S. may well be on the road to recovery after its fastest plunge in history.”
This comes on the heels of a report from payroll services provider ADP indicating that companies cut 2.76 million jobs in May. That was bad, but the news was surprisingly good compared to expectations.
These are the latest economic reports showing the economy could recover fairly quickly. Data from around the world is improving.
Among the biggest surprises is China’s Caixin Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector. This index reached 55.0 in May, its highest level for almost a decade. A reading above 50.0 points to an increase in activity, while a reading below that level points to a decline.
China was the first major economy to begin reopening after the virus outbreak.
In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s service index rose to 45.4 in May from 41.8 in April. Services account for more than two-thirds of economic activity, so the report is good news for the broad economy.
But the economy still faces challenges. Economists at the NY Federal Reserve expect GDP to contract by more than 10% this quarter.
Source: NY Federal Reserve
The WEI is based on data from the 2008 recession, and forecast growth of 1.6% at the end of February.
What All Of This Means
We’ve never seen a sudden economic collapse like this, so it isn’t surprising the recovery is proving difficult to forecast. It’s possible the recovery will experience a relatively brief recession, which is inline with the stock market’s performance.
There are an increasing number of “buy” signals in the stock market, including my recent recommendation in Seagate Technology plc (Nasdaq: STX).
STX makes data storage devices. This could be a growth market as the challenges of work-from-home drive demand for data storage. Many of those Zoom calls that companies have are being recorded and stored.
Analysts expect earnings of about $5.00 per share this year and next, with growth averaging about 9% a year after that. At the current price, STX is trading at about 10 times earnings. This is well below the stock’s five-year average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4.
In addition to being undervalued, STX is on an Income Trader Volatility (ITV) “buy” signal. ITV is a momentum indicator that helps me time options trades.
The stock chart is bullish, and ITV indicates now is an ideal time to generate income on the stock. And that’s exactly what we’re doing over at my Maximum Income service.
For those who don’t know, my readers and I have been making what I call “bonus dividend” trades on stocks like STX for years now. While most investors sit and wait for their dividends to roll in, we don’t. And we even make these trades on stocks that don’t pay regular dividends at all.
Unfortunately, I can’t reveal the exact details of the trade on STX. Just know that if all goes according to plan, we’ll earn about 10% in 44 days. If we can repeat a similar trade every 44 days, we’d earn a 27% return on our capital in 12 months. That’s the power of my “bonus dividend” strategy.