Why Traders Should Focus On The Short-Run Right Now…
There’s a new book out about the economist John Maynard Keynes. It’s called “The Price of Peace.” This title plays on Keynes’ first bestseller, “The Economic Consequences of the Peace,” which warned that the Treaty of Versailles was deeply flawed.
While the treaty to end World War I was intended to ensure a comprehensive end to war in Europe, Keynes warned it simply set the stage for another war. Keynes was right, as he was on many other topics.
Keynes is among the world’s most famous economists. Among his most famous quotes is the observation that “In the long run, we are all dead.” Obviously, this is another time when Keynes was correct.
He was making an important point with this comment. He was frustrated with economists who argued that inflation and deflation could be ignored over the long run. As he explained later, “Life and history are made up of short runs. … The best we can do is put off disaster, if only in the hope, which is not necessarily a remote one, that something will turn up.”
Think about that quote and how it applies to the situation we’re in right now. In case you haven’t guessed, right now I believe we are experiencing a Keynesian short run.
If you follow the news, you know that potential disaster lurks. Maybe all we are doing is putting off disaster in hope that we will avert it. It is possible we will soon have good news about a vaccine or that policymakers will save the economy.
How I’m Trading Right Now
Stocks are trading based on the hope that disaster will be avoided. And with trillions of dollars supporting the economy, that does seem like a good bet.
For now, I believe Keynes has done a great job explaining the market. We are seeing hope in the short run, even as the long run seems less bullish for stocks. But life happens in the short run, and that’s where our trading should be focused. So, we will continue applying our strategy with discipline. The rest is out of our control — and the best we can do is hope something will turn up.
(Also read: What The Army Taught Me About Risk Management)
That’s exactly what we’re doing over at my premium service, Income Trader. Our most recent trade for the short run is in Universal Health Services, Inc. (NYSE: UHS).
This is a well-diversified healthcare company. UHS operates 26 acute care hospitals, 328 behavioral health facilities, 42 outpatient facilities and ambulatory care access points, an insurance offering, a physician network and various related services located in 37 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom.
The stock sold off along with the broader market but has gained more than 75% since bottoming in March. The stock is now on an Income Trader Volatility (ITV) “buy” signal. ITV is the tool I developed to help select my regular weekly Income Trader recommendations. Of the weekly trades I’ve recommended, 90.5% have been winners going all the way back to 2013.
The company reported earnings earlier this week and beat expectations. Analysts responded by increasing estimates slightly for the current quarter.
Action To Take
UHS offers value with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 13. This is below the five-year average P/E ratio of 16. The combination of the ITV “buy” signal, value, and analyst bullishness makes UHS an ideal trade for the short run.
But rather than simply buy shares at these levels and hope for the best, my Income Trader readers and I have a better plan…
By using our conservative put-selling strategy, we were able to generate a quick instant payout from the stock — without having to buy shares.
Given the uncertain nature of the market right now, we think this is a far better strategy than sitting on positions and tying up our trading capital for months at a time. We need to be able to respond quickly to this market, hoping for the best — but planning for the worst.
Editor’s Note: When it comes to managing risk, nobody does it better than Amber Hestla. In fact, since beginning her Income Trader service in February 2013, she has delivered winning trades 91% of the time. That’s more than seven straight years of income, through bull markets and bear markets… without skipping a beat.
We’re on a mission to put smart investors on the path to generating the income they need in any market. And they can do it, thanks to Amber’s award-winning strategy, which generates payouts of $330… $675… $720… and even $1,155…