How Iran Could Push Oil Past $150 a Barrel

The energy markets are constantly abuzz with activity around the globe. If you’re an investor in this sector — and you should be — then staying abreast of every merger, discovery and seismic report is an exhaustive challenge. But in my Energy & Income newsletter, I stay tuned in to the latest breaking news and emerging trends so you don’t have to.

But if you’ve been paying any sort of attention at all, then there’s one news item that’s practically dominating energy news headlines.


On Dec. 12, a high-ranking Iranian official announced plans to conduct “a military maneuver on how to close the Strait of Hormuz,” according to news reports.

The bold declaration undoubtedly sparked some serious discussions among U.S. State Department officials and their counterparts overseas. The Strait of Hormuz is arguably the world’s most strategic and important shipping lane. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, about 15.5 million barrels of crude flow through it each day on giant tankers. That’s about one-sixth of the world’s total daily oil consumption, and one-third of all seaborne oil shipments.

Putting up a blockade would create untold supply disruptions and political havoc. Just the threat of this exercise was enough to rattle the oil markets and send prices climbing about $3 per barrel.

The last time I talked about Iran in Energy & Income, I warned that the international community was turning up the heat. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has responded to the tighter scrutiny by provoking the West.

Back in September, the Iranian navy announced plans to deploy warships out of the Persian Gulf and toward the U.S. maritime border in the Gulf of Mexico. This is probably just bluster — I doubt Iran intends to engage the U.S. navy.

But blockading the Strait of Hormuz is a different matter. This is where most of the oil produced in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other OPEC countries passes through to the rest of the world. The narrow channel between Iran and Oman is just four miles wide in spots — an easy choke-point where vital oil supplies could be bottled up in the Middle East.

It’s not a coincidence that Tehran’s latest threat comes shortly after the capture of a downed American spy drone. And as tensions escalate, Iran may indeed take steps to hold oil shipments hostage, despite the presence of U.S. patrols in the region.

In the end, playing this “trump card” would be more costly to Iran than its enemies. But the saber rattling alone is enough to put upward pressure on oil prices.

Considering 90% of all Persian Gulf exports must pass through the Strait, any real conflict could easily send prices rocketing back above $150 per barrel.

Action to Take –> I don’t see any immediate “actionable” investment angle just yet. But at the very least, this is yet another potential catalyst on the horizon for oil investors.

If Iran flexes its muscles, be ready to act by increasing exposure to your favorite oil producers. For now, this provocative act is exactly why the United States needs to become more energy independent and lessen our reliance on hostile exporters.

Turbulence in the Middle East could lend support for domestic natural gas, a big plus for stocks such as Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK). It could also lead to renewed emphasis on TransCanada’s (NYSE: TRP) XL Pipeline project, which has attracted plenty of attention and controversy of its own.

Stay on top of these developments in the coming weeks. Whether you are able to move quickly or not when opportunity comes knocking could be a key factor in capturing gains if or when oil prices spike.

[Note: Rising energy demand is arguably the single most powerful trend on the planet. In each issue of Energy & Income, my mission is to give you a dependable way to profit from the world’s most important industry — energy. To find out more about my newsletter, go here.]