What Sinking Consumer Confidence Means For Investors (And How You Can Protect Your Portfolio…)

With three kids home for the summer, I’ve noticed that the fridge and pantry need to be restocked more often than usual… almost daily. Teenagers rarely emerge from their lairs. But when they do, like a swarm of locusts, they devour just about everything in sight. I’m pretty sure we can go through a loaf of bread in a matter of minutes.

You wouldn’t think the term “sticker shock” would ever apply to bread. But with some premium products hitting $6, $8, and even $10 a loaf, you can understand why many shoppers have traded down from brioche and multi-grain to plain old wonder bread. Still, the dollar can only be stretched so far.

According to one tracking service, U.S. households spent 8.5% more on bread this year than at the same point in 2022. But that doesn’t mean they are putting more loaves in the cart. In fact, unit sales are actually 3.8% lower. There’s a big difference between sales by dollar and sales by volume.

Thanks to record inflation, we are paying more for less.

It’s not just bread, but eggs, milk, meat, vegetables, and other staples. And that’s just in the grocery aisles. Don’t even get me started on dishwasher detergent. Across corporate America, rising revenues have been driven largely by price hikes, masking soft underlying demand.

According to FactSet Research, the S&P 500 posted an average top-line growth rate of 4.1% last quarter. But strip out the impact of inflation, and that figure turns negative. Even with it, it’s still the weakest revenue growth since 2020.

Even Dollar General (NYSE: DG) is struggling. The discount retailer just issued a bleak forecast, noting that shoppers may be spending more at the checkout counter but have fewer items in their baskets to show for it. As you might expect, that means tighter budgets for discretionary (i.e., non-essential) purchases.

It’s not shocking that a key gauge of consumer confidence just sunk to a 6-month low.


Source: Tradingeconomics.com

What This Means For Investors

But my wallet (and yours) aren’t the focal point today.

This is certainly a situation that bears watching, especially since we hold quite a few consumer-facing stocks over at High-Yield Investing, from travel to apparel. They cover the full spectrum of consumer goods, from a $5 burger to a $50,000 fifth wheel luxury camper. And I’m betting many of you may be in a similar situation, too.

Fortunately, many of our holdings over at High-Yield Investing are taking matters into their own hands and investing their way out of this malaise. The old adage to buy when others are selling doesn’t just apply to investors – but opportunistic businesses as well.

Take Restaurant Brands (NYSE: QSR) for example.

You only thought there was a Burger King on every corner. But somehow, another 465 locations have opened over the past 12 months, lifting the global total to 18,911. At this pace, we’re only a couple years away from the 20,000 mark.

While each new unit contributes to sales, the incremental impact diminishes with size. That’s why investors focus more on comparable (or same-store) sales, which back out the impact of expansion and measure results from the base of existing locations that have been open for at least a year. On that basis, Burger King took in $6.2 billion in first-quarter sales, a healthy increase of 10.8%. Add back the revenues from those 465 new locations, and system-wide sales climbed 14.3%.

Meanwhile, Popeye’s (which welcomed 407 new stores) posted a 14.4% sales increase and Tim Horton’s produced growth of 17.9%. Firehouse Subs, the newest member of the family, delivered an improvement of 7.5%.

Positive results across the board.

QSR is leveraging rising sales at company-owned locations and greater royalties from franchisees, posting a strong 22% uptick on the bottom line last quarter. Earnings marched to $0.75 per share, allowing management to lift dividends to $0.55.

Closing Thoughts

Over at High-Yield Investing, we’ve nearly doubled the broader market’s performance since adding QSR to our portfolio.

Looking ahead, QSR is investing heavily in remodeling efforts, digital initiatives, and new marketing campaigns to maintain this momentum. The modest dividend hike is welcome, too. But with the stock climbing from $50 to $75 over the past year, the yield has been driven down to around 3%. And with consumer behavior looking a little shaky right now, I’m not sure how much upside there is for new investors with these conditions.

But I’m not ready to sell just yet. So that’s why we made the decision to lock down our gains with stop loss. If you’re sitting on any big winners that are exposed to discretionary spending, you might want to consider doing the same.

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