Up 1,500% — And Our Analyst Says It’s Still A ‘Buy’
A big part of my job as managing editor of StreetAuthority involves talking with our premium newsletter experts to get a sense of what they like in the market, where they think it’s headed and how they plan to help their followers profit.
I want to share some of that wisdom. I’m featuring insights and top picks from each of our experts over the next couple of weeks as a way of saying thanks for being a StreetAuthority.com reader.
Today’s pick comes courtesy of Amy Calistri.
Out of 45 closed trades in the four-year history of Amy Calistri’s Stock of the Month, 38 turned a profit. That’s a success rate of 84.4%, or more than 8 out of 10. How good is that?
“In this business, if you’re good, you’re right 6 out of 10. You’re never going to be right 9 out of 10.” So said Peter Lynch, the famous fund manager for Fidelity Magellan in the 1980s.
Before a holding can be closed out in Stock of the Month, it has to be purchased, of course, and Amy added the stock she recommends below to her portfolio last May.
Here’s more from Amy:
This Company Has Strong Pricing Power and New Avenues of Growth
One of my favorite stocks for the next year is the car rental agency Hertz (NYSE: HTZ). There has been a lot of consolidation in the car rental sector in recent years, giving it more pricing power. Enterprise, Avis Budget Group (Nasdaq: CAR) and Hertz now control roughly 94% of the U.S. rental car market. Their pricing power has grown to the extent that the online travel company Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE) blamed the sector’s consolidation on its poor results. EXPE’s revenues from selling discount rental car services have plummeted in the first half of 2013 — because there are so few rental car discounts to be found.#-ad_banner-#
The car rental industry is also getting savvier when it comes to disposing of its aging fleet. In the past, rental cars that were taken out of service were usually put up for auction or sold directly to used car wholesalers. But car rental companies have started to realize they’ve been leaving money on the table. The industry has developed a number of new channels designed to sell older vehicles directly to customers — at a retail price.
Rental car companies have historically been economically sensitive. In challenging economic times, businesses cut back on travel and people cut back on vacations. But the industry is starting to cater to a less economically sensitive consumer. For instance, the new Hertz On Demand 24/7 service lets customers rent cars by the hour — for as little as $5 an hour. This is great for city dwellers, college students and single car families who occasionally need a car for necessary — not discretionary — trips.
Hertz is benefiting from all these trends. It recently acquired Dollar Thrifty, helping to boost Hertz’s revenue by 22% for the quarter ended June 30 over the same quarter last year. Hertz was able to raise the price of a daily rental by 3.1% overall, and by 4.4% at U.S. airport locations. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter came in at 45 cents per share — a tad higher than Wall Street expectations — but a stunning 28.6% higher than a year earlier.
Action to Take –> Hertz has an attractive valuation, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 12. But Hertz’s annual earnings growth rate should be somewhere north of 30% — or higher, if the European economy starts to recover. At current prices, Hertz is providing solid growth at a discount. Buy Hertz under $26.50 a share.
P.S. — Do you like Amy’s analysis? If so, you’ll love how she picks the best dividend stocks on the market. To learn about her three part strategy, click here.