An Unexpected Pick For Growth
While worldwide GDP growth slows to a crawl reliable investments can be hard to find. But I’ve found a reliable dividend payer that could give your portfolio a boost.
Over the last two weeks the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has rallied nearly 6%, a marked improvement from the beginning of the year’s poor performance. Many market observers, me included, think the volatility will stick around for 2016.
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One of the main volatility drivers for this year will be investors accepting the fact that global economic growth will remain lackluster at best. For 2016, the World Bank sees U.S. real GDP growth at 2.8%. The outlook for the Euro area and Japan is much more dismal at 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. On average, developed markets are poised to turn in anemic growth of just 2.4%.
While forecast GDP growth for the developing world is better than 50% that of developed markets at an average of 5.2%, the double digit days seem to be long gone. While China targets 7% growth (if you can trust them), it’s a far cry from the “China Miracle” of old.
As a professional investor, the challenge I face on a daily basis is finding stable investments with growth rates and yields that outpace GDP, inflation, and lower risk investments. These days, beating the GDP number doesn’t seem that tough and inflation is pretty much non-existent. The real work is in determining the quality and dependability of that growth rate.
I’ve found all of those necessary qualities in shares of RPM International, Inc. (NYSE: RPM). While the name may not sound too familiar, the company’s portfolio of brands will. In fact, many of them are probably on the shelf in your garage or workshop, including Rust-Oleum, DAP, and Zinsser.
But the company’s offerings stretch beyond the aisles of Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW). RPM’s lines of specialty paints, protective coatings, roofing systems, sealants and adhesives generated annual sales of $4.6 billion in 2015 beating 2014’s number by a solid 5%. In fact, the company delivered 61 consecutive years of sales increases up until 2009 when the streak was broken by the recession triggered by the financial crisis of 2008.
But ever since that bump in the road, revenues have grown at a solid 7% annual average. Applying my hunt for growth criteria in a low to no growth environment shows that RPM’s growth is 191% better than developed market GDP and a 35% improvement over expected growth in the riskier developing markets. RPM’s revenues are 57% domestic versus 43% international.
How has the company maintained consistent growth despite a flattish global economy? One word: diversification. While the RPM’s revenue mix is roughly 65% industrial and 35% consumer, its product portfolio contains a diverse blend of brand names most of which typically hold the number one and two spot in their respective product segment. If one particular end market slows down another should compensate. If the industrial sleeve of the portfolio lags, the do it yourself (DIY) consumer sleeve helps pick up the slack. Just like an investment portfolio: financials underperform, tech outperforms, the line smooths.
The diversified portfolio has always been the key to RPM’s operational success. The company has grown cash flow at an annual rate of 5.6% over the last five years. Again, over twice that of U.S. GDP growth coming off of a recession. Earnings per share (EPS) growth has clocked in at 4.5% per year over the same time period. While these numbers don’t seem too exciting, keep in mind, this is a boring, industrial stock in a mature industry space. But the numbers are consistent and dependable.
Full year 2015 EPS results for RPM came in at $1.78. The latest 2016 estimates clock in at $2.49; a leap of nearly 40% from the previous year.
Risks To Consider: Currently, two non-operating RPM subsidiaries are defendants in in asbestos related injury lawsuits. However, in 2010 both businesses filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. This was a defensive move that enabled the parent company to do two things. One: freeze all litigation related to the asbestos cases against the subsidiaries. Two: allowed RPM to exclude asbestos liability reserves from its consolidated financial statement.
Also, the company’s balance sheet is a bit leveraged at roughly 58% net debt to long term capitalization. While that’s not too excessive, it’s a little higher than I like to see (typically debt to capitalization of 30% or less is a better range). But RPM’s consistent cash flow growth and operating consistency is sufficient to manage the debt while still growing revenue, EPS and the dividend.
Action To Take: If the global economy is doomed to sluggish, low single digit growth for the next few years, investors must carefully pick companies who can beat that growth number on all fronts by a substantial percentage. The good news is that bogey is not that tough to beat. The challenge, though, is selecting the names that can do that with ease. RPM’s business isn’t the sexiest, but spray paint, caulk, and other related products pay the bills and then some on a regular basis.
Shares of RPM currently trade around $42 with a forward PE of 16.78 and a dividend yield of 2.6%. Based on the company’s habit of consistent execution, achieving the forecasted EPS would result in a PE expansion to 19. A 12-month price target for the stock of $47 combined with the dividend would result in a potential upside of 15%.
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