Analyst Articles

Common sense doesn’t always lead to profitable investing decisions. In fact, making an investment based on what feels good or appears to be common sense can often lead to losses. #-ad_banner-# This is because the stock market tends to attract the highest number of investors at exactly the wrong time. Professional investors understand this and generally buy a stock when the public is scared or simply not interested.     One of the hardest things for new investors to grasp is the basic rule of buying weakness and selling strength. Common sense and the feel-good method of investing is to buy… Read More

Common sense doesn’t always lead to profitable investing decisions. In fact, making an investment based on what feels good or appears to be common sense can often lead to losses. #-ad_banner-# This is because the stock market tends to attract the highest number of investors at exactly the wrong time. Professional investors understand this and generally buy a stock when the public is scared or simply not interested.     One of the hardest things for new investors to grasp is the basic rule of buying weakness and selling strength. Common sense and the feel-good method of investing is to buy a stock when it is going up. Professional investors buy stocks on pullbacks and sell into strength — the exact opposite of what the majority does. I’m not suggesting that buying strength or when a stock is climbing never works. Under certain circumstances, breakout trading or strength buying makes sense. However, most of the time, waiting for a pullback in an overall uptrend creates the optimal entry level.   The reason for this fact is big-money investors generally only buy bargains. They never want to pay top dollar for any asset. The professionals understand the difference between value and price. … Read More

Advertising is everywhere you look (or listen): It’s in your car, your home, and in every storefront you pass as you stroll around the block.#-ad_banner-# The industry has so much power that it affects nearly everything you see, hear and do. The sector is so potent that it drives demand, which is one of the two primary forces of every market-based economic system. As you can imagine, there are huge profits to be made by investing in this industry. Revenues are expected to reach $178 billion in the United States alone during 2013. However, many investors don’t usually even think… Read More

Advertising is everywhere you look (or listen): It’s in your car, your home, and in every storefront you pass as you stroll around the block.#-ad_banner-# The industry has so much power that it affects nearly everything you see, hear and do. The sector is so potent that it drives demand, which is one of the two primary forces of every market-based economic system. As you can imagine, there are huge profits to be made by investing in this industry. Revenues are expected to reach $178 billion in the United States alone during 2013. However, many investors don’t usually even think about this business when choosing investments. This is because it’s so intertwined with our lives that the majority don’t even give it a second thought. Just how does this sector drive economic demand? One of the first concepts taught in economics is supply and demand. These are the underlying forces that make commerce, and even entire economies, function. Understanding this practical implication of supply and demand is one of the keys to successful investing, and even operating a profitable business. And advertising is oftentimes not merely the grease on the economic wheel — it can be the wheel itself. Demand,… Read More

Trend following is a time-honored investing method.#-ad_banner-#​ Many investors erroneously believe trend following simply means following the price trend in a stock or commodity. Several books and many investment articles perpetuate the price-only myth, resulting in its widespread acceptance as truth.  But the savviest investors realize that although trend following may refer to following a price chart, to be effective, it needs a much deeper, all-encompassing investing method. I like to think of trend following from a top-down perspective.  Understanding the global or national economic climate by asking if we are in a bear or bull market is the… Read More

Trend following is a time-honored investing method.#-ad_banner-#​ Many investors erroneously believe trend following simply means following the price trend in a stock or commodity. Several books and many investment articles perpetuate the price-only myth, resulting in its widespread acceptance as truth.  But the savviest investors realize that although trend following may refer to following a price chart, to be effective, it needs a much deeper, all-encompassing investing method. I like to think of trend following from a top-down perspective.  Understanding the global or national economic climate by asking if we are in a bear or bull market is the first trend to follow. Next, societal trends need to be considered, such as what people are buying, what’s hot, what’s on the horizon, and what ideas and concepts are trending.  Finally, drilling down and discovering what industries and specific companies are poised to ride these trends makes far more sense than merely looking at a price chart that, by definition, only illustrates the past. Using this three-step, trend-following guide, I’ve discovered a company poised to ride an overwhelmingly powerful trend well into 2014. On Dec. 19, the Federal Reserve revealed that it will begin to taper its monthly $85 billion… Read More

I was one of the lucky few to be chosen by Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to be a beta tester for the revolutionary Google Glass product.#-ad_banner-#​ Glass is a wearable computer screen that sits on the user’s face like a pair of glasses. Glass can be worn while other tasks are being completed, and all the user needs to do is glance upward to see the data on the screen. The beta testers are called Glass Explorers and use the product in everyday life while reporting likes and dislikes to Google. This is… Read More

I was one of the lucky few to be chosen by Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to be a beta tester for the revolutionary Google Glass product.#-ad_banner-#​ Glass is a wearable computer screen that sits on the user’s face like a pair of glasses. Glass can be worn while other tasks are being completed, and all the user needs to do is glance upward to see the data on the screen. The beta testers are called Glass Explorers and use the product in everyday life while reporting likes and dislikes to Google. This is so the company can tweak the system prior to it actually going on the market, supposedly in early 2014.  After posting about my Google Glass Explorer invite on social media, I was inundated with offers to buy it. I could not believe how much money some folks were willing to pay just to obtain the invitation to purchase Glass and participate in Google’s program. I reasoned that I could purchase several pairs of Glass once it went on the market for the offers I was receiving. Therefore, I made the decision to trade the invite for a decent sum of… Read More

Popular apparel brands like Andrew Marc, Wilson Leather, Cole Haan, Levi’s, Nine West, Sean John, Calvin Klein and even Tommy Hilfiger all have a secret. If this secret was widely known, it might change many consumers’ perceptions of their favorite clothing brand. Years of expensive and highly effective marketing have differentiated each brand into a specific demographic, price range and even perceived quality.#-ad_banner-#​ One of the more extreme examples of brand marketing differentiation is the high-end swimsuit brand Vilebrequin. These swimsuits start at around $200 and go to… Read More

Popular apparel brands like Andrew Marc, Wilson Leather, Cole Haan, Levi’s, Nine West, Sean John, Calvin Klein and even Tommy Hilfiger all have a secret. If this secret was widely known, it might change many consumers’ perceptions of their favorite clothing brand. Years of expensive and highly effective marketing have differentiated each brand into a specific demographic, price range and even perceived quality.#-ad_banner-#​ One of the more extreme examples of brand marketing differentiation is the high-end swimsuit brand Vilebrequin. These swimsuits start at around $200 and go to over $8,000 for a pair of swim trunks embroidered with 24-karat gold thread. Marketed to the international jet-setters who party in Ibiza or Saint-Tropez, Vilebrequin swim trunks are truly high end.  On the other end of the exclusivity scale is a brand like Tommy Hilfiger. Hilfiger swim trunks look very similar to Vilebrequin, but can often be found in discount outlets for around $25 or full-price retail for about $55. Even when compared side by side, it’s difficult to see much of a quality difference between the two brands. Other than the label and the fact… Read More

I think the glory days are over for an iconic company.#-ad_banner-#​ Started in 1971 with a small store in Seattle, this company has grown into a global behemoth, with nearly 20,000 stores in more than 60 countries. In fact, this company has become so ubiquitous that it removed its name from its famous logo, since the image itself had become a universally known symbol for its brand. In other words, the logo transcended language, conveying its own message without the need for words — a marketing dream come true for any consumer-focused company. Translating this incredible story into… Read More

I think the glory days are over for an iconic company.#-ad_banner-#​ Started in 1971 with a small store in Seattle, this company has grown into a global behemoth, with nearly 20,000 stores in more than 60 countries. In fact, this company has become so ubiquitous that it removed its name from its famous logo, since the image itself had become a universally known symbol for its brand. In other words, the logo transcended language, conveying its own message without the need for words — a marketing dream come true for any consumer-focused company. Translating this incredible story into numbers reveals a market cap of over $57 billion, annual revenue of nearly $15 billion, and yearly gross profits of just over $8.5 billion. This company’s fiscal fourth quarter was very strong as well, with 13% revenue growth from the same period last year, a 29% increase in consolidated operating income and a 37% increase in earnings per share (EPS). The company’s entire fiscal 2013 was stellar, with more than 1,700 new stores opened and comparable-store growth of 9% in China/Asia Pacific and 7% worldwide. Reiterating what a great year it has been, this company’s CEO said the quarter “capped… Read More

Although the conventional wisdom is that the choice to purchase a home is the most important and expensive economic decision the average person or couple will make, there is another choice that is even costlier and more important — the choice to have children.#-ad_banner-# Raising children is an extremely expensive undertaking. This is particularly true if both spouses work and outside child care is necessary. One recent study found that annual child care costs varied by state, ranging from $4,863 to $16,430 per child. In addition, the Census Bureau reported in 2011 that child care… Read More

Although the conventional wisdom is that the choice to purchase a home is the most important and expensive economic decision the average person or couple will make, there is another choice that is even costlier and more important — the choice to have children.#-ad_banner-# Raising children is an extremely expensive undertaking. This is particularly true if both spouses work and outside child care is necessary. One recent study found that annual child care costs varied by state, ranging from $4,863 to $16,430 per child. In addition, the Census Bureau reported in 2011 that child care costs have increased dramatically since the 1980s. No matter how you slice it, this is one huge expense. The fact that the rising costs for families hasn’t translated into increased salaries for child care workers (per the Census Bureau’s report) can mean only one thing: Someone is making huge profits in the child care business. After recovering from the shock of these figures, I went to work to discover a way to profit from them. The child care business is primarily a fragmented industry of small-time operators ranging from home-based centers to regional chains. However, a newly public player in… Read More

There is a dangerous malady sweeping the United States.#-ad_banner-# According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, over a third of American adults — more than 72 million people — suffer from this ailment. It is a well-known cause of killers like heart disease, stroke, certain cancers and Type 2 diabetes.  Unfortunately, here in the U.S., many aspects of advertising and the general culture actually seem to promote this condition, even though it costs Americans an estimated $147 billion in annual medical costs — nearly 10% of all U.S. medical spending. The American… Read More

There is a dangerous malady sweeping the United States.#-ad_banner-# According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, over a third of American adults — more than 72 million people — suffer from this ailment. It is a well-known cause of killers like heart disease, stroke, certain cancers and Type 2 diabetes.  Unfortunately, here in the U.S., many aspects of advertising and the general culture actually seem to promote this condition, even though it costs Americans an estimated $147 billion in annual medical costs — nearly 10% of all U.S. medical spending. The American Heart Association has gone so far as to call this issue an epidemic and has projected that 44% of the U.S. population may be afflicted with this condition by 2030.   If you haven’t guessed, I’m referring to obesity. While the causes of this malady are many, society does little to curtail the constant promotion of factors that eventually result in an obese population. High-fat and high-sugar foods are not only usually among the least expensive, they are the most readily and easily available, not to mention the most heavily advertised.  Fortunately, many companies are focused on solving the obesity… Read More

It’s interesting how movies can be strangely prescient.#-ad_banner-#​ For example, take George Romero’s campy 1978 horror thriller, “Dawn of the Dead.” Filmed partially inside a north Pittsburgh shopping mall, it focused on murderous, undead zombies in search of human flesh to dine upon. Yes, I know, a ridiculous premise, but the movie contains a classic, prophetic scene of zombies being the only creatures inhabiting the local indoor shopping mall.  Surveying the mall full of zombies, one of the zombie hunters asks, “Why do they come here?” A zombie-hunting scientist answers: “Some kind of instinct. Memory of what they… Read More

It’s interesting how movies can be strangely prescient.#-ad_banner-#​ For example, take George Romero’s campy 1978 horror thriller, “Dawn of the Dead.” Filmed partially inside a north Pittsburgh shopping mall, it focused on murderous, undead zombies in search of human flesh to dine upon. Yes, I know, a ridiculous premise, but the movie contains a classic, prophetic scene of zombies being the only creatures inhabiting the local indoor shopping mall.  Surveying the mall full of zombies, one of the zombie hunters asks, “Why do they come here?” A zombie-hunting scientist answers: “Some kind of instinct. Memory of what they used to do. This was an important place in their lives.” Back when the movie was filmed, indoor malls were the most popular place for shopping. The movie was reflecting just how fashionable mall shopping had become in the ‘70s — but today, America is littered with dead and dying malls. Many indoor mall operators would be thrilled if even zombies showed up to shop.  Things have gotten so bad at indoor malls that Green Street Advisors, a research firm specializing in real estate investment trusts (REITs), has forecast that 10% of the nearly 1,000 large… Read More

The most successful investors on Earth all share a common trait: the ability to see and act on long-term trends.#-ad_banner-# While the majority of investors are focused on short-term results, the top investors are primarily concerned with being on the correct side of global economic growth patterns. Finding and investing in companies that are riding these global growth trends is a recipe for long-term investing success. Right now, China is attracting substantial investor interest due to its demographic shift toward a consumer-driven economy. Following the emerging Chinese bull hasn’t always been easy, thanks to the government’s tight control over the… Read More

The most successful investors on Earth all share a common trait: the ability to see and act on long-term trends.#-ad_banner-# While the majority of investors are focused on short-term results, the top investors are primarily concerned with being on the correct side of global economic growth patterns. Finding and investing in companies that are riding these global growth trends is a recipe for long-term investing success. Right now, China is attracting substantial investor interest due to its demographic shift toward a consumer-driven economy. Following the emerging Chinese bull hasn’t always been easy, thanks to the government’s tight control over the economy. However, this situation is well on its way to changing as China’s leaders are turning their formidable powers toward spurring the economy rather than being strictly focused on rigid controls. Most importantly for investors, the government’s focus on economic growth is combining with the power of the Internet to create one of the most exciting investment opportunities I’ve ever seen. The goal of China’s current five-year economic plan is to increase domestic demand and reduce the population’s high rate of savings. They are accomplishing these goals by increasing incomes, improving social safety nets, altering the tax structure, and actively… Read More