Analyst Articles

Markets move in cycles of varying lengths. Some indicators, like the relative strength index (RSI), are based on that idea. RSI was designed by J. Welles Wilder for the commodity markets and some traders believe that commodities move in line with a 28-day cycle. In fact, some traders, including Wilder, believed that the phase of the moon had a large effect on commodity market prices. Default values for calculating RSI are set to 14 days, one-half of the cycle length or… Read More

Markets move in cycles of varying lengths. Some indicators, like the relative strength index (RSI), are based on that idea. RSI was designed by J. Welles Wilder for the commodity markets and some traders believe that commodities move in line with a 28-day cycle. In fact, some traders, including Wilder, believed that the phase of the moon had a large effect on commodity market prices. Default values for calculating RSI are set to 14 days, one-half of the cycle length or about one-half the length of a lunar month.#-ad_banner-# I’m not convinced a lunar calendar can help anyone time trades, but the idea of cycle analysis does make sense. In particular, there is a business cycle where the economy alternates between contraction and expansion. This cycle varies in length but averages about four years. Martin Pring recognized the importance of considering several cycles and developed an indicator he called Know Sure Thing (KST) to look at short-term, intermediate-term and long-term cycles.  “I’ve learned after all my years trading… Read More