Roughly a month ago, meteorologists began warning that the Eastern United States was headed for another brutally cold winter. It was the kind of story that many saw as “click-bait,” enticing people to watch online videos before getting a good weather scare. #-ad_banner-#Where I live, in New York’s Hudson Valley, temperatures were quite balmy as I kept hearing about the coming “Polar Vortex.” I made a mental note to check back in on the topic in early November, when we would have a much clearer read on the issue. Well, the facts are in and the pundits were right, it’s… Read More

Roughly a month ago, meteorologists began warning that the Eastern United States was headed for another brutally cold winter. It was the kind of story that many saw as “click-bait,” enticing people to watch online videos before getting a good weather scare. #-ad_banner-#Where I live, in New York’s Hudson Valley, temperatures were quite balmy as I kept hearing about the coming “Polar Vortex.” I made a mental note to check back in on the topic in early November, when we would have a much clearer read on the issue. Well, the facts are in and the pundits were right, it’s going to be another bleak winter. And last winter’s natural gas spike appears set for an encore. The Siberian Connection Roughly a year ago, I noted an uncanny correlation between the amount of autumnal snow pack in Siberia and winter temperatures in the Eastern United States. As I wrote then, nine of the 10 coldest winters in the eastern portion of the country were the result of this weather anomaly. Last winter’s subsequent deep freeze makes it 10 for 11. Sadly, the just-released numbers portend a coming winter that will again be quite frigid. For a bit… Read More

It’s getting harder to stay abreast of the fast-growing market for exchange-traded funds. For every ETF that closes, another two or three are launched — we’re reaching ETF overload. The industry offered roughly 900 choices in 2009, according to Morningstar, and that figure has swelled to more than 1,600 today. #-ad_banner-#Still, it’s wise to devote time and energy to this asset class. ETF sponsors often look for ways to deliver new and unique investment angles, and some of them appear very well-positioned for long-term upside.  Here are three ETFs launched this year that merit consideration for your portfolio. First Trust… Read More

It’s getting harder to stay abreast of the fast-growing market for exchange-traded funds. For every ETF that closes, another two or three are launched — we’re reaching ETF overload. The industry offered roughly 900 choices in 2009, according to Morningstar, and that figure has swelled to more than 1,600 today. #-ad_banner-#Still, it’s wise to devote time and energy to this asset class. ETF sponsors often look for ways to deliver new and unique investment angles, and some of them appear very well-positioned for long-term upside.  Here are three ETFs launched this year that merit consideration for your portfolio. First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (NYSE: FV) We are big fans of relative strength as an investment theme. In fact, our Maximum Profit newsletter squarely focuses the metric. So does this ETF, which invests in other funds offered by First Trust. The ETF rotates its funds depending on which one are showing the greatest relative strength. The “fund of funds” approach is starting to gain attraction. Though the ETF got off to a weak start after it was launched in March 2014, it has rebounded: Over the past six months, it’s up 12%, compared to… Read More

Even for investors that have a high tolerance of risk for emerging markets, Russia has become too hot to handle. Under the capricious rule of Vladimir Putin, the country has gone out of its way to alienate global investments and diplomatic communities. What started with forays into Crimea and Ukraine has extended to a hostile economic environment for any companies interested in doing business in Moscow. Economic sanctions have been the West’s primary response, which has mostly been met with shrugs and statements of blustery nationalism from the Kremlin. #-ad_banner-#Yet with every passing day, Russia’s pariah status is delivering a… Read More

Even for investors that have a high tolerance of risk for emerging markets, Russia has become too hot to handle. Under the capricious rule of Vladimir Putin, the country has gone out of its way to alienate global investments and diplomatic communities. What started with forays into Crimea and Ukraine has extended to a hostile economic environment for any companies interested in doing business in Moscow. Economic sanctions have been the West’s primary response, which has mostly been met with shrugs and statements of blustery nationalism from the Kremlin. #-ad_banner-#Yet with every passing day, Russia’s pariah status is delivering a fresh blow to an already fragile economy. Russia’s Economic Ministry recently lowered the 2014 economic growth rate to just 0.5%, and that forecast was issued before the further declines in oil prices recently. The odds of a recession in Russia are rising, right at a time when the average Russian citizen is now seeing sticker shock for many goods. That’s because Russia under-invested in domestic production of a wide range of goods, having been contented to use oil earnings to import many goods. Yet a 20% slide in the ruble since the year began, to its lowest levels since the… Read More

In case we had forgotten it is the banks’ job to make money, they are hiking ATM and checking account fees to record levels to generate additional revenue. In fact, if you use an out-of-network ATM, your average fee will be $4.35 per transaction, a 5% increase over the past year, according to a new survey by Bankrate.com. #-ad_banner-#More fees, along with greater loan demand, strength in investment banking and cost-cutting, are expected to result in higher third-quarter profits at the nation’s largest banks. The top six are anticipated to show combined net income of $16.2 billion for the quarter,… Read More

In case we had forgotten it is the banks’ job to make money, they are hiking ATM and checking account fees to record levels to generate additional revenue. In fact, if you use an out-of-network ATM, your average fee will be $4.35 per transaction, a 5% increase over the past year, according to a new survey by Bankrate.com. #-ad_banner-#More fees, along with greater loan demand, strength in investment banking and cost-cutting, are expected to result in higher third-quarter profits at the nation’s largest banks. The top six are anticipated to show combined net income of $16.2 billion for the quarter, according to analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters, a 21% increase over Q3 2013. Most banks are still trading well below their pre-financial-crisis levels, while the economy continues to strengthen. A good way to take advantage of this is with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF). While the broader stock market has regained all of its losses and made new high after new high this year, XLF has only achieved a halfway retracement from its 2007 highs to its 2009 lows. That leaves plenty of room for continued upside. XLF broke out of its four-year trading range in early… Read More

Bigger isn’t necessarily better, but over the past six months, the bigger the market capitalization, the better the investment results. For example, during that time, large-cap stocks in the broader S&P 500 index have scored a 7.4% gain. By comparison, small-cap stocks comprising the benchmark Russell 2000 index are actually down 4.2% since late March. #-ad_banner-#In Monday trade, the declines in the small-cap segment of the market got rather ugly, and the Russell 2000 sank 1.4% for its biggest one-day loss in seven weeks. The divergence between the large-cap and small-cap segments of the markets is a worrisome development for… Read More

Bigger isn’t necessarily better, but over the past six months, the bigger the market capitalization, the better the investment results. For example, during that time, large-cap stocks in the broader S&P 500 index have scored a 7.4% gain. By comparison, small-cap stocks comprising the benchmark Russell 2000 index are actually down 4.2% since late March. #-ad_banner-#In Monday trade, the declines in the small-cap segment of the market got rather ugly, and the Russell 2000 sank 1.4% for its biggest one-day loss in seven weeks. The divergence between the large-cap and small-cap segments of the markets is a worrisome development for a continuation of the bull market, as it signals a clear breakdown in market breadth. Moreover, the slumping small-cap segment usually is a precursor to a wider sell-off. Interestingly, during the beginning of a bull market, small-cap stocks tend to lead the charge higher. This is because the smart money is generally more willing to take a chance on smaller, less-proven and more speculative small caps at the onset of a bull. Unfortunately, the reverse effect is also true, and that means that toward the end of a bull market, the smart money tends to flow to bigger, battle-tested and… Read More

California and Texas, the nation’s most populous states, with a combined population of 65 million people, share another key trait: They are both parched. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, both states are experiencing a drought across roughly 80% of their land mass. That’s a real crisis when you consider how important agriculture is in those two states. And the phrase “mega-drought” may soon enter our lexicon. The American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate now warns that the U.S. Southwest may be facing decades of such extreme… Read More

California and Texas, the nation’s most populous states, with a combined population of 65 million people, share another key trait: They are both parched. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, both states are experiencing a drought across roughly 80% of their land mass. That’s a real crisis when you consider how important agriculture is in those two states. And the phrase “mega-drought” may soon enter our lexicon. The American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate now warns that the U.S. Southwest may be facing decades of such extreme dry conditions. #-ad_banner-#A solution may lie offshore: Seawater can be scrubbed through reverse osmosis filters, providing potable water to increasingly parched Southern California. Companies such as Consolidated Water (Nasdaq: CWCO) build and operate such plants. Other dry areas, such as the Middle East, are starting to boost investments in this technology. Solutions for the U.S. heartland will likely require greater water efficiency. The Oglala aquifer, which supplies water to many farms in the Central United States, has seen rapid depletion. As a result, conservation measures are expanding to curb water… Read More

There’s a classic episode of The Little Rascals where a very tiny Spanky finds a stash of money and proceeds to throw it out of the window to the gang below. #-ad_banner-#That visualization reminds me of the central banker’s tool known as quantitative easing, often referred to as just QE. This is when a nation’s central bank, in the United States’ case the Federal Reserve, contracts the supply of government bonds by buying them from banks, thus keeping interest rates low and, theoretically, giving the banks cash to lend in order to stimulate the economy. Does it… Read More

There’s a classic episode of The Little Rascals where a very tiny Spanky finds a stash of money and proceeds to throw it out of the window to the gang below. #-ad_banner-#That visualization reminds me of the central banker’s tool known as quantitative easing, often referred to as just QE. This is when a nation’s central bank, in the United States’ case the Federal Reserve, contracts the supply of government bonds by buying them from banks, thus keeping interest rates low and, theoretically, giving the banks cash to lend in order to stimulate the economy. Does it work?  After four years, the U.S. economy has improved slightly. However, the jobs picture is still tenuous and while people feel better, they don’t feel great. Here’s what happened to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (AMEX: SPY) when the Fed turned on the spigot. I’ve never been an advocate of trying to actually time the market. However, some times are better than others for putting money to work. So, even if you “missed” the panic bottom in 2008 and 2009 and didn’t come out of the foxhole for another year, you still doubled your money. You see, the… Read More

If you drove a car to work or turned up the thermostat in your home today, then it’s a safe bet that the fossil fuels used to power these tasks came to you via railway. And there’s also a good chance that if it was shale oil at the source of these fuels, then it came to you via Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN). #-ad_banner-#Trinity supplies products and industry services for the energy, transportation, chemical and construction sectors in the United States, Canada and Mexico. It also has operations in the U.K., Singapore and Sweden. The company’s bread-and-butter operation is its… Read More

If you drove a car to work or turned up the thermostat in your home today, then it’s a safe bet that the fossil fuels used to power these tasks came to you via railway. And there’s also a good chance that if it was shale oil at the source of these fuels, then it came to you via Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN). #-ad_banner-#Trinity supplies products and industry services for the energy, transportation, chemical and construction sectors in the United States, Canada and Mexico. It also has operations in the U.K., Singapore and Sweden. The company’s bread-and-butter operation is its railcar business. Trinity has a lease fleet of more than 73,500 railcars used in transporting shale oil from the northern United States and Canada to the rest of an energy hungry continent. Last year, Trinity’s railcar sales and leasing segment was responsible for more than 60% of the company’s operating profits.  This year, the company continues to deliver outstanding gains in revenue, earnings and share price. In late July, Trinity reported Q2 earnings that trounced Wall Street expectations, with a 95% increase in net income to $164.2 million. That translated into earnings of $1.01 per share, while estimates called for… Read More

While there are hundreds of technical indicators available, many of them give the same signals, and using several that are similar adds little value to your analysis process. The wide variety of indicators may disguise the reality that most indicators simply apply different mathematical techniques to closing prices in their calculation. For example, the relative strength index (RSI) and stochastics will usually give buy and sell signals at about the same time. To avoid the… Read More

While there are hundreds of technical indicators available, many of them give the same signals, and using several that are similar adds little value to your analysis process. The wide variety of indicators may disguise the reality that most indicators simply apply different mathematical techniques to closing prices in their calculation. For example, the relative strength index (RSI) and stochastics will usually give buy and sell signals at about the same time. To avoid the problem of duplicating signals, traders should know exactly want they want to learn from each indicator on a chart. Below is a daily chart of PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq: QQQ). The prices are shown with Bollinger Bands. Stochastics and RSI are shown in the lower part of the chart. Prices seem to have turned down after nearing the upper Bollinger Band. This could indicate that the next move in QQQ will be… Read More

The concept of buying when there is “blood in the streets” is well-known to most investors, particularly as a figurative expression that calls for moving into beaten-down sectors when they’re really out of favor. Yet when there’s literally blood in the streets, it’s probably wise to steer clear of stocks in the hot zone. #-ad_banner-# Traders certainly steered clear of the hot zone between Russia and Eastern Ukraine at the beginning of the year. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX) tumbled roughly 25% in the first 11 weeks as the tensions between the former Soviet Union and … Read More

The concept of buying when there is “blood in the streets” is well-known to most investors, particularly as a figurative expression that calls for moving into beaten-down sectors when they’re really out of favor. Yet when there’s literally blood in the streets, it’s probably wise to steer clear of stocks in the hot zone. #-ad_banner-# Traders certainly steered clear of the hot zone between Russia and Eastern Ukraine at the beginning of the year. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX) tumbled roughly 25% in the first 11 weeks as the tensions between the former Soviet Union and Ukraine culminated with Russia annexing the Crimea region in strong-arm style. However, following the multiyear low in RSX in mid-March, Russian stocks have been strong performers. RSX is up 20% since its March 13 low, more than double the gains in the S&P 500 over the same time period. Renewed tensions in the region in July sparked by the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet by pro-Russian separatists caused another big sell-off. This quickly took RSX below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as once again the… Read More