I spend a lot of time on the road. As far as I’m concerned, to truly grasp the investment opportunities that emerge each year across the globe, there’s no better way than to actually see it in person. My travels recently took me to Hong Kong, the island protectorate that has been home to the some of the most stunning stock market gains seen in quite some time. #-ad_banner-#While visiting the area, which has been under Chinese control since 1999, I had a chance to sit down with friends working and investing in Hong… Read More

I spend a lot of time on the road. As far as I’m concerned, to truly grasp the investment opportunities that emerge each year across the globe, there’s no better way than to actually see it in person. My travels recently took me to Hong Kong, the island protectorate that has been home to the some of the most stunning stock market gains seen in quite some time. #-ad_banner-#While visiting the area, which has been under Chinese control since 1999, I had a chance to sit down with friends working and investing in Hong Kong — first over tapas and wine on the famed Old Bailey Street in Central district, and then whiskey and Cuban cigars at a friend’s private club. And what they told me confirmed the data I’ve been seeing on this part of the world: a powerful investment trend is in full swing. You see, over the past two months, the Hong Kong stock exchange has been on a tear. Beginning March 11, the benchmark Hang Seng index gained 20% to hit a high of around 28,500 in late April. Since then,… Read More

It’s one of the market’s biggest missed opportunities. Every day, millions of U.S. investors looking for more income are missing out. That’s because the vast majority of the world’s highest-yields aren’t found in the United States. As the Chief Strategist of High-Yield International, my job is to scour the globe for the world’s highest yielding investments and tell my readers about them each month. At last count, my research shows that over 79% of the world’s highest-yielding stocks are based in international markets. If you’re like most people, then you’ve probably… Read More

It’s one of the market’s biggest missed opportunities. Every day, millions of U.S. investors looking for more income are missing out. That’s because the vast majority of the world’s highest-yields aren’t found in the United States. As the Chief Strategist of High-Yield International, my job is to scour the globe for the world’s highest yielding investments and tell my readers about them each month. At last count, my research shows that over 79% of the world’s highest-yielding stocks are based in international markets. If you’re like most people, then you’ve probably never taken advantage of foreign stocks. #-ad_banner-#That’s a shame, because the average stock in the United Kingdom yields 3.8%, Australia’s average yield is 4.5% and New Zealand pays 4.3%. By contrast, U.S. stocks yield less than 2%, on average. Most U.S. investors dismiss the idea of investing abroad. They tend to think other countries are “riskier” than the United States. But that’s not always the case. Especially with one special country I’ll tell you about in a moment, where average yields are double those found in the United… Read More

#-ad_banner-#As countless companies have noted on recent conference calls, the surging U.S. dollar is creating a strong challenge for U.S.-based multinationals. It has risen roughly 12% against the euro since the fourth quarter of 2013. Companies with strong revenue overseas post lower sales when the foreign currencies they are holding are translated into dollars (i.e. it takes more of the currency to equal one dollar). Of the 11 companies in the Dow 30 that break out revenue from Europe, eight reported a year-over-year decline in fourth quarter sales, thanks to currency impact. Adding insult, foreign rivals are having an easier… Read More

#-ad_banner-#As countless companies have noted on recent conference calls, the surging U.S. dollar is creating a strong challenge for U.S.-based multinationals. It has risen roughly 12% against the euro since the fourth quarter of 2013. Companies with strong revenue overseas post lower sales when the foreign currencies they are holding are translated into dollars (i.e. it takes more of the currency to equal one dollar). Of the 11 companies in the Dow 30 that break out revenue from Europe, eight reported a year-over-year decline in fourth quarter sales, thanks to currency impact. Adding insult, foreign rivals are having an easier time selling goods and services in the United States, thanks to their weaker currencies. The bad news continues: among the 105 companies that warned the market of disappointing earnings ahead of the official Q1 release, 69 of them pointed to the stronger dollar as a key factor. As this chart shows, a rising number of U.S. companies have deep exposure to foreign markets.  A simple way to gauge the dollar fallout: Companies that derived 90% of their revenue from within the United States saw shares jump by 13% (in the six months ended February 2015), according to research… Read More

Value investing can be tough. It means thinking in a contrarian manner, while the investing herd stampedes in another direction. Value opportunities usually occur when something is going wrong for a company. Recognizing a headwind that is temporary or fixable, especially when it affects an otherwise healthy company, is what value investors dream of. Aflac, Inc. (NYSE: AFL) is a specialty insurer that offers disability and supplemental medical insurance products in the United States and Japan. Although famous for a talking duck mascot, this is a spectacularly run company. Aflac has raised its dividend for 33 consecutive years, making it… Read More

Value investing can be tough. It means thinking in a contrarian manner, while the investing herd stampedes in another direction. Value opportunities usually occur when something is going wrong for a company. Recognizing a headwind that is temporary or fixable, especially when it affects an otherwise healthy company, is what value investors dream of. Aflac, Inc. (NYSE: AFL) is a specialty insurer that offers disability and supplemental medical insurance products in the United States and Japan. Although famous for a talking duck mascot, this is a spectacularly run company. Aflac has raised its dividend for 33 consecutive years, making it a member of the “Dividend Aristocrats.” In each of the past 10 years, even during the financial crisis of 2008, it has achieved a 15% or better return on equity. This company controls a very specific niche in the market and is the undisputed leader in supplemental insurance products. Despite the fact that it’s headquartered here in the United States, most of Aflac’s business comes from Japan. In 2014, Japanese operations accounted for more than 70% of Aflac’s revenue.  In Japan, the company is performing well, consistently adding policies and growing premium income year in and… Read More

You wouldn’t think this was an opportunity. In the last three months, only the Euro dropped further than the Canadian dollar. Canada’s currency recently hit a five-and-a-half year low. And because of two powerful catalysts — which I’ll tell you more about in a moment — I expect its value to remain depressed at least through the end of 2015. But this is good news in disguise. If history is any guide, then foreign investors could be positioned for major profit opportunities from this country in the months ahead. Read More

You wouldn’t think this was an opportunity. In the last three months, only the Euro dropped further than the Canadian dollar. Canada’s currency recently hit a five-and-a-half year low. And because of two powerful catalysts — which I’ll tell you more about in a moment — I expect its value to remain depressed at least through the end of 2015. But this is good news in disguise. If history is any guide, then foreign investors could be positioned for major profit opportunities from this country in the months ahead. In the first quarter of 2015, the Canadian dollar fell 7.14%. #-ad_banner-#Two powerful trends have been holding down the country’s dollar. I don’t expect either of them to change soon, but together they’re creating a clear divide in the country’s economy. One side is making major profits right now, the other is losing out. I can show you how to profit from the winners, but first let me show you what’s going on. Interest Rate Increases The Federal Reserve is the only major central bank in the world considering… Read More

The roaring 1990s brought a new phrase to the investing lexicon: “market melt-up.” It is described by some as a “buy first, ask questions later” mentality, as legions of investors piggyback on a winning trade. Yet such melt-ups invariably end badly. Once some investors start to book profits, a cascade effect takes place, where selling begets further selling. We surely saw that in evidence at the start of the past decade. From peak to trough, the Nasdaq composite index fell a stunning 78.4% from 2000 to 2002. #-ad_banner-#U.S. investors were so badly burned by that event that there is still… Read More

The roaring 1990s brought a new phrase to the investing lexicon: “market melt-up.” It is described by some as a “buy first, ask questions later” mentality, as legions of investors piggyback on a winning trade. Yet such melt-ups invariably end badly. Once some investors start to book profits, a cascade effect takes place, where selling begets further selling. We surely saw that in evidence at the start of the past decade. From peak to trough, the Nasdaq composite index fell a stunning 78.4% from 2000 to 2002. #-ad_banner-#U.S. investors were so badly burned by that event that there is still a lingering distrust of stocks. And that’s a good thing. Such caution likely means we’ll stop ourselves before collectively creating another market melt-up. Unfortunately, investors in China can’t draw from past experience and are setting themselves up for the same bit of misery. Chinese stocks rose at a measured pace in 2014, but have been absolutely on fire in the past few months. These investors have been buying shares with abandon, even in the face of an increasingly apparent economic slowdown. They aren’t conducting rigorous investment analysis, but are instead simply chasing success. The economic backdrop in China… Read More

Robert Shiller is a professor of economics at Yale University, a closely followed housing index is named in his honor, and in 2013, he won a Nobel Prize for his research in economics. Between 2005 and 2007, he was one of the few who sounded the warning bells about a potential bubble in the U.S. and global housing markets. Investors who followed Schiller’s advice avoided real estate at the top of a massive bubble. Investors who ignored him suffered huge losses. Today, he’s warning of a new danger. And if… Read More

Robert Shiller is a professor of economics at Yale University, a closely followed housing index is named in his honor, and in 2013, he won a Nobel Prize for his research in economics. Between 2005 and 2007, he was one of the few who sounded the warning bells about a potential bubble in the U.S. and global housing markets. Investors who followed Schiller’s advice avoided real estate at the top of a massive bubble. Investors who ignored him suffered huge losses. Today, he’s warning of a new danger. And if history is any guide, it pays to listen. “I’m thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat,” said Schiller in a February CNBC interview. “Europe is so much cheaper.” To that effect, he’s already invested in Spanish and Italian indexes. Schiller’s decision is based on particular valuation models, which he developed. He did this by looking at a common ratio, price-to-earnings, in a new light: adjusted for market cycles over a longer period of time. Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio is commonly referred to as the CAPE ratio. Currently, the United States has… Read More

I make a ton of currency swaps in my line of work. It goes with the territory. But lately it’s been a harrowing experience. Many currencies around the world have been a mess for the last few months. The value of the British pound, for example, has dropped 13% against the dollar since July 2014. #-ad_banner-#At the same time, the Canadian dollar has plummeted 15% against its American counterpart. And the Colombian peso — another currency I’m frequently buying — is down an astounding 28% over the same period. I’ll admit… Read More

I make a ton of currency swaps in my line of work. It goes with the territory. But lately it’s been a harrowing experience. Many currencies around the world have been a mess for the last few months. The value of the British pound, for example, has dropped 13% against the dollar since July 2014. #-ad_banner-#At the same time, the Canadian dollar has plummeted 15% against its American counterpart. And the Colombian peso — another currency I’m frequently buying — is down an astounding 28% over the same period. I’ll admit it’s been quite a hassle lately. I almost ran out of pesos in the Colombian countryside recently because of it. But what has me really worried is how these “currency wars” are starting to effect businesses and stocks valuations around the world. Let me show you what I mean. A few months ago, in my premium advisory Top 10 Stocks, I discussed how the massive and often-unprecedented fluctuations in currency rates have been crushing profits and lowering the valuations of many of the world’s most well-known and established companies. I showed how over the… Read More

Just a decade ago, you could throw a dart at the field of emerging market stocks for double-digit gains. Strong economic growth in the Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are considered the four dominant emerging markets, was augmented by a commodity boom, which helped resource exporters throughout the world. Even after the United States housing bubble burst, emerging markets rebounded more quickly than developed markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: EEM) outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) by more than 32% over the… Read More

Just a decade ago, you could throw a dart at the field of emerging market stocks for double-digit gains. Strong economic growth in the Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are considered the four dominant emerging markets, was augmented by a commodity boom, which helped resource exporters throughout the world. Even after the United States housing bubble burst, emerging markets rebounded more quickly than developed markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: EEM) outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSE: VGK) by more than 32% over the two years to March 2011. #-ad_banner-#​But that’s about when the music stopped. Slowing growth in China and economic stagnation in Europe has weighed on commodity prices and the recent selloff in crude oil has been the final straw for many emerging markets. Those that failed to use the good times to diversify their economy have seen the worst of the drop. Shares of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) have plunged more than 20% over the last year on lower oil revenues and… Read More

The global population continues to expand at a steady pace, and agronomists believe that crop yields will need to double by 2050 to meet rising food demand. That should be leading to rising demand for fertilizer producers, but these firms haven’t seen much benefit from the trend in recent years.   Blame goes to a weakening Chinese economy and lower commodity prices, which reduce farm incomes.  The knockout punch came in July 2013 when Russian potash miner Uralkali decided to abandon cartel-like pricing policies and favor sales volumes over pricing. Potash is one of the three key compounds, along with nitrogen… Read More

The global population continues to expand at a steady pace, and agronomists believe that crop yields will need to double by 2050 to meet rising food demand. That should be leading to rising demand for fertilizer producers, but these firms haven’t seen much benefit from the trend in recent years.   Blame goes to a weakening Chinese economy and lower commodity prices, which reduce farm incomes.  The knockout punch came in July 2013 when Russian potash miner Uralkali decided to abandon cartel-like pricing policies and favor sales volumes over pricing. Potash is one of the three key compounds, along with nitrogen and phosphate, in organic fertilizers. #-ad_banner-#Until that seismic event, global potash prices had been set by two trading companies: the Belarusian Potash Company and Canpotex. The former is a joint venture between Uralkali and Belaruskali. The latter is controlled by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Agrium, Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). By limiting potash production, the group kept prices higher than natural supply and demand would allow. When Uralkali decided to produce at full capacity in 2013, the publicly-traded companies saw 30% of their market capitalization erased in a single… Read More