Exactly one quarter ago, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 11,000, I asked a simple question: will the next move be to 12,000 or back to 10,000? Well, the bulls ruled the day, and the market has tacked on another 9% gain since then. This rally seems to never end. The sharp rise off the March 2009 bottom made clear sense. So many good companies were selling at such low valuations that you needed to ignore the noise and simply pick the best apples from the barrel. Yet the most recent move in the… Read More
Exactly one quarter ago, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 11,000, I asked a simple question: will the next move be to 12,000 or back to 10,000? Well, the bulls ruled the day, and the market has tacked on another 9% gain since then. This rally seems to never end. The sharp rise off the March 2009 bottom made clear sense. So many good companies were selling at such low valuations that you needed to ignore the noise and simply pick the best apples from the barrel. Yet the most recent move in the market is a bit more puzzling. The markets were approaching fair value last spring, then pulled back and have since gone on to post another impressive rally. The Dow has rallied roughly 20% in the past five months, which works out to be a nearly 50% annualized gain. At a time where you should expect 10% to 15% annual market gains — at best — we should be truly grateful. We should also take a more cautious posture. Here’s why. Factors behind the move As I noted, the market would potentially rally… Read More