Why Charles Schwab Tried To Talk Me Out Of My Most Controversial Recommendation

What seems like many lifetimes ago, I was a banker.

I ran branch banks, wrote operating manuals, and did business development. But the most fun I had was in business development and financing… I loved roaming the county, talking with all kinds of businesses — from those which needed money to buy equipment or inventory — to developers who wanted to borrow funds to build high-end residential properties or commercial buildings.

#-ad_banner-#My time in banking came with a silver lining that I didn’t really appreciate until I left the industry — analyzing financial statements. Over the course of eight years financial statements became almost second nature to me (especially banks). I could quickly determine the stability of a company and determine which ones were destined to fail.

That knowledge came in handy when I moved on to the brokerage business on Wall Street as a securities analyst. Because of my banking experience, it was only natural that I — at first — specialized in the finance industry.

I wrote my first official analyst report about 13 brokerage houses, including the biggies, Bear Stearns, Charles Schwab, Merrill Lynch and Paine Webber — all of which I sold short.

It was a bold move. I soon found out that most securities analysts rarely say “sell” when it comes to Wall Street’s investment banking giants. Why? Put simply, a good portion of the stocks they follow are their investment banking clients. So issuing a “sell” tends to stress those intertwined relationships. And since one of those brokerage firms I sold short was actually our company’s trading partner, you can see why my report might have raised some eyebrows.

That trading partner’s CEO called me, as did my own CEO. To say the least they weren’t too happy with my recommendation, but when I explained my primary reason — the economic cycle didn’t look very positive in the near-term for brokerage firms — they ultimately backed off. And, fortunately, the research director (my boss) supported me 100%.

But the fun didn’t end there. One particular company’s rep called me some pretty juicy names in the Wall Street Journal (for which his boss later made him apologize, in writing.)

Charles Schwab himself made a point to have a very pleasant (but nerve-wracking) conversation with me, as to why he thought I was wrong, and Merrill Lynch wined and dined me in their President’s dining room to try to convince me that I should change my mind.

It didn’t work… because I had studied the economy, analyzed each of those 13 brokerage firm’s financial statements and could see the beginning of weakness due to the declining economic environment. So I held my course, and I was right. The stocks of those 13 brokerage houses plummeted by an average of 35% each, over the next few months, and we pocketed the difference.

Now, I’m not telling you this for sport. I just want you to understand the importance of economic cycles and other catalysts when choosing stocks. As I’ve said before, you can find the best, fundamentally-strongest company in the world, but if there is no momentum behind its shares, you could wait a lifetime for them to appreciate.

Back in my brokerage days, the downward momentum of the economic cycle screamed “sell” on financial stocks. But right now, we are in just the opposite scenario. The economy has been on a very slow recovery and we are still in the early stages of that cycle… which opens up a great opportunity for us to make money.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) is a prime example of one of these opportunities.

When times are flush, most banks are fat and lazy. They rake in the money as the economy strengthens, easily gathering deposits and making loans.

But when a recession hits, financial companies are often the first to feel the effects — deposits stop growing and their free-wheeling credit from the boom years gets them into trouble with rising loan losses.

That didn’t happen to TD Bank. It never took TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) money during the crisis, and it continued to grow both its deposits and loans during the financial debacle. Consequently, the bank has deep capital reserves, and surpasses required capital minimums.

And as you can see below, the bank has paid a growing dividend over the past 20 years, with a current yield of 3.40%. In fact, it has never cut its dividend — a move that many banks could not escape during the recession.

TD’s growth has also been going on for some time. Through smart acquisitions and internal growth, the bank’s assets have more than quadrupled in the last decade.

In addition, from October 2004 until October 2013, the bank grew its net revenue from $10.83 billion to $27.26 billion and its earnings per share (EPS) doubled from $1.70 per share to $3.46 per share.

The Canadian economy is also improving, but what I like about TD is its growth in the US market. You see, TD is also the 9th largest bank in the US, with $207 billion in deposits — almost as much as the $248 billion it has gathered in Canada. Its US growth spurt really took off when TD acquired Commerce Bank in 2008.

The shares are up about 12% so far this year — nearly double what the S&P 500 has done. And I think it’s just getting started, as they are far from overbought at this level.

In short, the US economy is on the upswing, interest rates are still low, housing and unemployment are improving, and TD Bank has made significant inroads in the US markets. These catalysts make TD a great buy.

P.S. — TD Bank isn’t the only stock that I’ve discovered that has room for incredible growth. In my advisory, Five-Star Stocks, my mission is to find “undiscovered blue-chip stocks” like TD. These are stocks that you won’t hear about on CNBC or find on the S&P or Dow Jones. That’s because they’re not yet considered blue chips… but they should be. And they’re poised for incredible growth. To get access to the names and ticker symbols of these companies, click here.