It wasn’t the interest rate decision made by the Fed recently but what Chairman Powell said after the meeting that shocked the markets. In fact, a subtle change in expectations may have foreshadowed the single best predictor for economic recession. —Recommended Link— Life-Saving Drug In Phase 3 Trials — FDA Fast Track Our experts have uncovered a small pharmaceutical company with a life-saving drug that virtually cures the deadliest food allergy on the planet. It’s so important that the FDA has given it Fast Track Designation to speed up the review process. We’re talking about a triple-digit opportunity —… Read More

It wasn’t the interest rate decision made by the Fed recently but what Chairman Powell said after the meeting that shocked the markets. In fact, a subtle change in expectations may have foreshadowed the single best predictor for economic recession. —Recommended Link— Life-Saving Drug In Phase 3 Trials — FDA Fast Track Our experts have uncovered a small pharmaceutical company with a life-saving drug that virtually cures the deadliest food allergy on the planet. It’s so important that the FDA has given it Fast Track Designation to speed up the review process. We’re talking about a triple-digit opportunity — but only if you act quickly. Good news could break any day and send the stock soaring! Click here to see why this is the best chance at triple digit gains we’ve seen in a long time. In fact, this recession indicator is seven-for-seven over nearly half a century. Top it all off with market jitters over a trade war and other geopolitical problems and the bear could be coming sooner than you think. The Real Danger Last Week Wasn’t The Rate Increase The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased its target fed funds rate 0.25% as expected at… Read More

Passive investors may be in for a tough 2018. The longest bull market in history has slowed to a crawl and become a stock-picker’s market this year. With the S&P 500 up just 2% through almost half the year, investors can no longer dump their money in passive index funds and ride the market higher. This late in the cycle, investing has become about finding industries with the potential to outperform on waves of strength. #-ad_banner-#And one industry may be starting a wave to last the rest of the year. The industry underperformed last year and in the first quarter… Read More

Passive investors may be in for a tough 2018. The longest bull market in history has slowed to a crawl and become a stock-picker’s market this year. With the S&P 500 up just 2% through almost half the year, investors can no longer dump their money in passive index funds and ride the market higher. This late in the cycle, investing has become about finding industries with the potential to outperform on waves of strength. #-ad_banner-#And one industry may be starting a wave to last the rest of the year. The industry underperformed last year and in the first quarter but has outperformed the broader market this quarter and could be gaining momentum. While first quarter earnings surprised to the upside and brought investors back to the space, the industry could still be undervalued by as much as 16% versus a generally overvalued market. Leisure & Entertainment Stocks Haven’t Been So Entertaining For Investors The nine-year bull market has been a bumpy one for companies in the leisure & entertainment space. The industry rebounded quickly after the recession but then underperformed the broader market for years. Growth picked up again in 2016 but hit a rough patch last year. Read More

First quarter earnings were a mixed bag for stocks. While companies in the S&P 500 reported a 24.6% increase in earnings from last year, the highest growth since 2010, the index is less than 2% higher since reporting began in March. —Recommended Link— The Secure Way To Add $19,632 To Your Bankroll This Year This “Daily Paycheck Retirement Solution” is so powerful, it’s generating more than $1,600 in income each month. Plus, this strategy is 37% less risky than the S&P. Click here right away to start collecting one or more “paychecks” each day from this high-yield, low-risk strategy…… Read More

First quarter earnings were a mixed bag for stocks. While companies in the S&P 500 reported a 24.6% increase in earnings from last year, the highest growth since 2010, the index is less than 2% higher since reporting began in March. —Recommended Link— The Secure Way To Add $19,632 To Your Bankroll This Year This “Daily Paycheck Retirement Solution” is so powerful, it’s generating more than $1,600 in income each month. Plus, this strategy is 37% less risky than the S&P. Click here right away to start collecting one or more “paychecks” each day from this high-yield, low-risk strategy… and rest easy every night. Not only did companies report record earnings growth but management has been relatively optimistic on the second quarter with far fewer S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance than is usually the case. With analysts estimating nearly 20% earnings growth for the index through 2018, the market’s mood seems surprisingly pessimistic on share prices. This isn’t just “climbing a wall of worry,” it’s a larger failure to price stocks on fundamentals rather than on pure emotion. #-ad_banner-#And that market failure could help calmer investors snap up some value plays primed for a rebound. Investors Throw the… Read More

Fears of higher rates have slammed stocks in the housing sector this year. The nationwide average 30-year mortgage jumped to a seven-year high of 4.61% in May from a low of 3.78% last year. The Fed has signaled more rate hikes on the way and the market is pricing in a 44% chance the FOMC raises rates three more times in 2018. #-ad_banner-#Investors have fled anything housing-related, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE: ITB) plunging 12% since the beginning of the year. While rates are likely to rise further, the market is missing one very important number. This… Read More

Fears of higher rates have slammed stocks in the housing sector this year. The nationwide average 30-year mortgage jumped to a seven-year high of 4.61% in May from a low of 3.78% last year. The Fed has signaled more rate hikes on the way and the market is pricing in a 44% chance the FOMC raises rates three more times in 2018. #-ad_banner-#Investors have fled anything housing-related, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE: ITB) plunging 12% since the beginning of the year. While rates are likely to rise further, the market is missing one very important number. This one stat could support higher home prices and activity in the sector. Share prices have fallen into value-territory and could snap back when investors realize that higher rates aren’t slowing sales for housing stocks. The One Number That Could Start Housing Stocks Building Higher The selloff in housing-related stocks this year has been brutal. The Home Construction ETF started falling just a week before the January meeting of the Fed and has erased nearly 16% of its value. And it’s not just homebuilders feeling the pain, real estate REITs are down broadly, with the Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSE: VNQ)… Read More

Berkshire Hathaway recently reported its equity holdings through Form 13-F and caught the market by surprise with some additions and sales. As the market fixates on individual purchases and sales, I’ve found looking more broadly at the portfolio reveals valuable insight into Warren Buffett’s outlook on stocks. #-ad_banner-#In fact, Buffett’s portfolio is surprisingly concentrated in just three industries. Combining this with position changes in individual stocks, investors may be able to get ahead of The Oracle of Omaha by investing in best-of-breed companies within the industries. What’s In Warren Buffett’s Portfolio? Buffett took the lead in 1965 and has… Read More

Berkshire Hathaway recently reported its equity holdings through Form 13-F and caught the market by surprise with some additions and sales. As the market fixates on individual purchases and sales, I’ve found looking more broadly at the portfolio reveals valuable insight into Warren Buffett’s outlook on stocks. #-ad_banner-#In fact, Buffett’s portfolio is surprisingly concentrated in just three industries. Combining this with position changes in individual stocks, investors may be able to get ahead of The Oracle of Omaha by investing in best-of-breed companies within the industries. What’s In Warren Buffett’s Portfolio? Buffett took the lead in 1965 and has rewarded investors ever since. Returns on shares of Berkshire Hathaway have climbed 20% annually over the last 38 years, easily beating the S&P 500. That means instant market buzz anytime the company files its Form 13-F, a regulatory disclosure of portfolio holdings, which was released  May 15 showing first-quarter activity. The media loves to go straight to the individual stocks and changes in Buffett’s portfolio when a new 13-F is filed each quarter,  but a wider view can be just as instructive in revealing his outlook on the market. The Berkshire equity portfolio includes just 42 companies for a total… Read More

As the market wraps up first quarter earnings season, results have been undeniably good. More than three-quarters (78%) of the companies in the S&P 500 have beaten earnings expectations, the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking it in 2008. Earnings growth for the index on a year-over-year basis is above 24%, making it the strongest quarter since 2010. #-ad_banner-#But why then isn’t the market booming? Stocks have rebounded from February lows, but sentiment has clearly shifted. Instead of the enthusiasm for growth and optimism for future earnings, investors seem hesitant to believe shares can go much higher. Is the market’s… Read More

As the market wraps up first quarter earnings season, results have been undeniably good. More than three-quarters (78%) of the companies in the S&P 500 have beaten earnings expectations, the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking it in 2008. Earnings growth for the index on a year-over-year basis is above 24%, making it the strongest quarter since 2010. #-ad_banner-#But why then isn’t the market booming? Stocks have rebounded from February lows, but sentiment has clearly shifted. Instead of the enthusiasm for growth and optimism for future earnings, investors seem hesitant to believe shares can go much higher. Is the market’s lethargy a sign of exhaustion and a long-awaited correction or is it just consolidation as earnings catch up? More importantly, how can you be ready for either scenario? Is Investor Enthusiasm Starting To Swing The Other Way? Despite the strength in earnings, the S&P 500 is up just 3% since earnings started coming out in early April. Investors have a reason to be hesitant in their enthusiasm. Forward valuations are at 16.0 times expected earnings for the next year, a 12% premium on the 10-year average of 14.3 times multiple. That elevated forward valuation is on expected earnings growth… Read More

A Southwest flight was forced to make an emergency landing on April 17 when an engine suffered a mid-flight failure. Shrapnel from the engine failure penetrated the plane, causing the death of one passenger and seven others to be insured. Another Southwest flight was diverted and forced to land on May 2 due to a cracked window. #-ad_banner-#Surprisingly, shares fell just 2% after the first incident and were down only 1.5% on the day of the cracked window. That resilience in the face of what could have been a devastating day is little consolation for shareholders though against a 21%… Read More

A Southwest flight was forced to make an emergency landing on April 17 when an engine suffered a mid-flight failure. Shrapnel from the engine failure penetrated the plane, causing the death of one passenger and seven others to be insured. Another Southwest flight was diverted and forced to land on May 2 due to a cracked window. #-ad_banner-#Surprisingly, shares fell just 2% after the first incident and were down only 1.5% on the day of the cracked window. That resilience in the face of what could have been a devastating day is little consolation for shareholders though against a 21% plunge from a multi-year peak reached in January. In fact, the entire industry seems to have hit some major turbulence as of late with the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE: JETS) off 8.8% since January. Airline Stocks Are Falling From The Sky As bad as two equipment problems in less than a month may seem, airline stocks are falling for a different reason. The biggest burden on airlines has been the jump in jet fuel prices. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports North American fuel prices have jumped 47% in the year through April,… Read More

Fears of a trade war have subsided, but recent economic releases may be showing it’s too late to avoid some of the pain. Signs of inflation have already been creeping higher and price pressures for manufacturers might foreshadow a surge in consumer prices that could force the Fed to increase rates faster than expected. #-ad_banner-#The problem is that it may be a no-win situation for businesses and their investors. Passing costs on to consumers could slow sales and subsequent rate hikes could slow the economy. However, not passing costs on to consumers could decimate earnings. There are only a few… Read More

Fears of a trade war have subsided, but recent economic releases may be showing it’s too late to avoid some of the pain. Signs of inflation have already been creeping higher and price pressures for manufacturers might foreshadow a surge in consumer prices that could force the Fed to increase rates faster than expected. #-ad_banner-#The problem is that it may be a no-win situation for businesses and their investors. Passing costs on to consumers could slow sales and subsequent rate hikes could slow the economy. However, not passing costs on to consumers could decimate earnings. There are only a few sectors and industries that could escape this lose-lose scenario. These Two Problems Could Be Bigger Than A Trade War While we may avoid a full-blown trade war, the prospect of one may have already caused an increase in prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measure of input costs has risen in six of the past eight months and import prices have recently jumped the most in six years. That could be due in part to manufacturers rushing to order inputs ahead of tariffs, inadvertently driving up prices at suppliers. One measure flashing red is delivery… Read More

President Trump’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan introduced in February disappointed policymakers on both sides of the aisle. The headline price tag was too much for fiscal hawks and the paltry $200 billion in direct federal spending wasn’t enough from the perspective of state and local governments. It may not have mattered because enthusiasm for new fiscal spending had already become extremely light after the $1.5 trillion tax cut package. #-ad_banner-#However, signs are pointing to a change in the environment, and infrastructure stocks could get a big boost very soon. Not only is crumbling infrastructure making headlines, but rare bipartisan support… Read More

President Trump’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan introduced in February disappointed policymakers on both sides of the aisle. The headline price tag was too much for fiscal hawks and the paltry $200 billion in direct federal spending wasn’t enough from the perspective of state and local governments. It may not have mattered because enthusiasm for new fiscal spending had already become extremely light after the $1.5 trillion tax cut package. #-ad_banner-#However, signs are pointing to a change in the environment, and infrastructure stocks could get a big boost very soon. Not only is crumbling infrastructure making headlines, but rare bipartisan support is coming together to drive enthusiasm for a spending package. The group has largely missed the run-up in prices seen in the broader market over the last five years as infrastructure spending stagnated. Leaders are trading at discounts to long-term price multiples and could play catch-up on any new spending plan. Infrastructure Spending Is Shovel-Ready And Could Be Back On The Agenda Infrastructure spending has long been lower than replacement needs, but the last five years have lagged even further. Annual federal spending for major public infrastructure has fallen 17% over the five years through 2017 to $38.4 billion. Read More

Estimates are high and investors are enthusiastic about what could be the best year-over-year earnings growth in seven years. If expectations are met, it could confirm investor sentiment for the tax cuts and higher profits this year. But the market could be ripe for a correction just as investor sentiment peaks. The S&P 500 is trading at 16.5 times earnings expected over the next year, a premium of 15.4% over the 10-year average of 14.3 times. #-ad_banner-#Stocks have been skittish all year, dropping more than 10% in February from their peak. The market has already seen three times the number… Read More

Estimates are high and investors are enthusiastic about what could be the best year-over-year earnings growth in seven years. If expectations are met, it could confirm investor sentiment for the tax cuts and higher profits this year. But the market could be ripe for a correction just as investor sentiment peaks. The S&P 500 is trading at 16.5 times earnings expected over the next year, a premium of 15.4% over the 10-year average of 14.3 times. #-ad_banner-#Stocks have been skittish all year, dropping more than 10% in February from their peak. The market has already seen three times the number of days trading higher or lower by 1% or more than all of 2017. This dichotomy means investors need to look deeper into the numbers to make sure their sector positioning and individual picks are ready for what will likely be a very volatile earnings season. Earnings Season Takes Center Stage The trickle in first quarter earnings becomes a deluge this week with bellwether names like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG). More than 1,200 companies are expected to report profits for the first three months of the year this week, an increase of… Read More