The U.S. economy seems to be humming along, with 2017 growth touching 2.3%, well above the 1.5% in the year before. The Bureau of Economic Analysis upgraded its estimate for fourth quarter growth to 2.9% from the advance estimate of 2.6% in January. The picture on the earnings front is just as rosy. Companies in the S&P 500 reported growth of 11.7% in earnings last year and analysts see that number growing by 18.4% in 2018, according to FactSet Research. #-ad_banner-#While market volatility has jumped lately on fears of a trade war, solid economic growth, and hope that the tax… Read More

The U.S. economy seems to be humming along, with 2017 growth touching 2.3%, well above the 1.5% in the year before. The Bureau of Economic Analysis upgraded its estimate for fourth quarter growth to 2.9% from the advance estimate of 2.6% in January. The picture on the earnings front is just as rosy. Companies in the S&P 500 reported growth of 11.7% in earnings last year and analysts see that number growing by 18.4% in 2018, according to FactSet Research. #-ad_banner-#While market volatility has jumped lately on fears of a trade war, solid economic growth, and hope that the tax cuts will drive earnings have supported stocks near highs. But it seems investors may be looking at the wrong metrics. Against good numbers at the broadest level, a recent release points to a new front of economic weakness lurking just under the surface. This factor has an overwhelming effect on the economy and could soon turn investor sentiment. Looking deeper into the data may show the only place for safety in what could become the end of the bull market. Are Retail Sales Hiding A Disturbing Trend? Retail sales in the United States fell for… Read More

Tech stocks have had a huge run throughout the bull market with the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) surging 280% since March 2009. That’s well above the 226% gain in the broader S&P 500 and helped lift the market to price multiples rarely seen in the past. Gains in the sector tracked the broader market closely until June 2016 when tech exploded, beating the index by 23% over nearly two years. #-ad_banner-#That outperformance has grown the sector to 27% of S&P 500, the highest it’s been since the final four months of the tech bubble. Read More

Tech stocks have had a huge run throughout the bull market with the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) surging 280% since March 2009. That’s well above the 226% gain in the broader S&P 500 and helped lift the market to price multiples rarely seen in the past. Gains in the sector tracked the broader market closely until June 2016 when tech exploded, beating the index by 23% over nearly two years. #-ad_banner-#That outperformance has grown the sector to 27% of S&P 500, the highest it’s been since the final four months of the tech bubble. Much of the explosive tech sentiment has been given to the largest players in the group, the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) which collectively surged an average of 51% last year. But the narrative has changed with some major problems at some of these tech leaders and that’s creating chaos for the broader market. The  Volatility Index (VIX) only broke 13 twice last year and averaged just 11.1 throughout 2017… it’s averaged 17.5 this year and hasn’t been below 13 since January. Does the tech selloff mean an end to the historic bull market? Are there still leaders… Read More

After nearly a decade of stock market gains, good deals in stocks with upside catalysts can be hard to find. Even some of the questionable investments seem to have been bid up in the search for higher returns. Fortunately, there is one segment of the market that never disappoints in offering a buffet of potentially great investments. #-ad_banner-#When everyone seems to love the market, I look at the stocks nobody likes. Beyond finding stocks at bargain-basement prices, taking the contrarian side on a stock with heavy short interest offers the added benefit of protection when market sentiment turns sour. If… Read More

After nearly a decade of stock market gains, good deals in stocks with upside catalysts can be hard to find. Even some of the questionable investments seem to have been bid up in the search for higher returns. Fortunately, there is one segment of the market that never disappoints in offering a buffet of potentially great investments. #-ad_banner-#When everyone seems to love the market, I look at the stocks nobody likes. Beyond finding stocks at bargain-basement prices, taking the contrarian side on a stock with heavy short interest offers the added benefit of protection when market sentiment turns sour. If nobody liked these stocks in the first place, plunging market sentiment isn’t going to affect them as much and share prices tend to hold up in a market rout. That makes investing in heavily-shorted companies the perfect theme for a late-stage bull market. Some People Just Hate For No Reason, Even In Stocks Short selling has exploded over recent decades. Short sales now account for 32% of total trading volume, compared with only 9% in 1984. There are several reasons investors might sell a stock short, some of which don’t even signal a negative outlook on the shares. Investors… Read More

February’s spike in volatility saw the largest one-day drop in the Dow’s history — a rude awakening after several years of stock market calm and rising prices. Not only has general volatility spiked but headwinds in specific sectors are causing massive disruptions in the larger index. Shares of tech companies now account for 27% of the S&P 500 with Monday’s sell-off largely driven by weakness in the sector. #-ad_banner-#The 6%-plus drop in shares of Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) alone took 0.1% off the S&P 500 for the day. With the fiscal stimulus of tax cuts already in the rearview, 2018 lacks… Read More

February’s spike in volatility saw the largest one-day drop in the Dow’s history — a rude awakening after several years of stock market calm and rising prices. Not only has general volatility spiked but headwinds in specific sectors are causing massive disruptions in the larger index. Shares of tech companies now account for 27% of the S&P 500 with Monday’s sell-off largely driven by weakness in the sector. #-ad_banner-#The 6%-plus drop in shares of Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) alone took 0.1% off the S&P 500 for the day. With the fiscal stimulus of tax cuts already in the rearview, 2018 lacks a macroeconomic catalyst to support investor enthusiasm. In fact, investor hope has turned to fear of a potential trade war or at least a tariff-induced slowdown. When uncertainty peaks, I like to seek shelter in best-of-breed dividend names. I look for companies with solid balance sheets and a five-year history of growing dividend payments. These dividend growth picks won’t be immune to a broad market selloff, but those regular dividend payments represent a source of guaranteed positive returns. The companies’ commitment to growing those dividends also means you earn a progressively higher return for years on that initial investment. Could… Read More

The Supreme Court generally begins hearing arguments in October each year and wraps up in June the following year. Rulings can lag the hearings by several months but are always momentous and can have a big effect on stock prices for related industries. The court heard arguments last December for a case nearly three decades in the making. The ruling could open up a $150 billion-a-year market in the United States and a decision is expected any day now. #-ad_banner-#The industry isn’t depending on the ruling for growth. It’s growing at 10% annually on a global level and as much… Read More

The Supreme Court generally begins hearing arguments in October each year and wraps up in June the following year. Rulings can lag the hearings by several months but are always momentous and can have a big effect on stock prices for related industries. The court heard arguments last December for a case nearly three decades in the making. The ruling could open up a $150 billion-a-year market in the United States and a decision is expected any day now. #-ad_banner-#The industry isn’t depending on the ruling for growth. It’s growing at 10% annually on a global level and as much as 6% in the United States alone. A favorable ruling though could send the industry booming. Not every company in the industry will benefit but I’ve found three names that could see increased sales and surging investor sentiment. One Of The Biggest Supreme Court Decisions Of The Year The Supreme Court heard arguments in Christie vs. NCAA late last year, a case brought by former N.J. Gov. Chris Christie against the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) that prohibits all but a few states from implementing sports gambling. The court is expected to render its decision any… Read More

President Trump recently announced his plans for tariffs on both steel and aluminum imports into the United States, setting off a wave of threats from other countries and sending the S&P 500 nearly 1.5% on the day. Since the announcement, fear has been building that retaliatory tariffs could start a trade war of tit-for-tat increases in everything from agricultural products to designer jeans. #-ad_banner-#Beyond the economic effects of the tariffs, the damage to investor sentiment and enthusiasm could weigh on a market already near record highs. It’s setting up to be… Read More

President Trump recently announced his plans for tariffs on both steel and aluminum imports into the United States, setting off a wave of threats from other countries and sending the S&P 500 nearly 1.5% on the day. Since the announcement, fear has been building that retaliatory tariffs could start a trade war of tit-for-tat increases in everything from agricultural products to designer jeans. #-ad_banner-#Beyond the economic effects of the tariffs, the damage to investor sentiment and enthusiasm could weigh on a market already near record highs. It’s setting up to be a volatile year in stocks, with the VIX volatility measure already surging 180% in the February selloff. And it could mean yet another catalyst and a third year of gains for a traditional safety asset. Gold May Be The Only Asset Glittering This Year The price of gold increased 11% last year for its best performance since 2010 and building on a return of nearly 10% in 2016. Capital spending and acquisitions hit a multi-year low since the price sell-off in 2012, hitting production and supporting prices. Weak prices since the post-recession boom… Read More

The historic bull market is entering its ninth year and signs of stretched stock prices are everywhere. A slightly higher inflation number and bond rates sent the markets into a tailspin early February even as fourth-quarter earnings showed some of the strongest profits in a decade. #-ad_banner-#The market has been rewarding good news less and punishing companies that can’t live up to investors’ expectations, a clear sign of sentiment turning sour. Companies that beat expectations for fourth-quarter earnings saw their share price decrease an average of 0.4% from the two days before through the… Read More

The historic bull market is entering its ninth year and signs of stretched stock prices are everywhere. A slightly higher inflation number and bond rates sent the markets into a tailspin early February even as fourth-quarter earnings showed some of the strongest profits in a decade. #-ad_banner-#The market has been rewarding good news less and punishing companies that can’t live up to investors’ expectations, a clear sign of sentiment turning sour. Companies that beat expectations for fourth-quarter earnings saw their share price decrease an average of 0.4% from the two days before through the two days after their release. That’s well under then five-year average where companies have seen their stock price increase 1.2% over the four-day period after an earnings beat. Companies that have missed earnings expectations have seen their shares drop an average of 1.8% over the same period. In this environment, value investing might just come back in vogue after nearly a decade of lagging behind the growth investing theme. A return to investing in companies with solid fundamentals and stock prices based on valuation rather than the promise of growth could… Read More

More that 30 million Americans woke up one day late last year to find they weren’t quite as healthy as when they went to sleep.  That’s because the American Heart Association changed the guidelines for what is considered high blood pressure (hypertension) for the first time in 14 years. The new guidelines are meant to improve treatment options and start people on therapies sooner rather than waiting too late. Hypertension is the second-leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide, second only to smoking, with a market that already tops $84 billion in the U.S. alone.  #-ad_banner-#And that was before the new… Read More

More that 30 million Americans woke up one day late last year to find they weren’t quite as healthy as when they went to sleep.  That’s because the American Heart Association changed the guidelines for what is considered high blood pressure (hypertension) for the first time in 14 years. The new guidelines are meant to improve treatment options and start people on therapies sooner rather than waiting too late. Hypertension is the second-leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide, second only to smoking, with a market that already tops $84 billion in the U.S. alone.  #-ad_banner-#And that was before the new guidelines were released, potentially driving the market for treatments even higher. Tens Of Millions Of Americans Need To Visit The Doctor Trying to head off the growing list of cardiovascular problems in the United States, the American Heart Association has lowered the cutoff determining who should be treated for high blood pressure. It’s now recommended that Americans with blood pressure of 130/80 or higher be treated versus the previous cutoff of 140/90 established in 2003.  That means 46% of the U.S. adult population, an estimated 103 million, is now considered at-risk of hypertension compared to an estimated 72 million… Read More

Artificial intelligence and robotics could dramatically transform every industry over the next decade. From increases in productivity to wage savings and minimizing human error, I’m hard-pressed to find another time in history with as much potential for a corporate profits bonanza. It’s impossible to predict all the ways this robo-revolution will affect society, but one thing is certain: The replacement of expensive human workers with their efficient robot counterparts will be a boon to the bottom line. #-ad_banner-#While timelines for widespread adoption in most industries puts this transformation decades out or more, there is one industry that could see massive… Read More

Artificial intelligence and robotics could dramatically transform every industry over the next decade. From increases in productivity to wage savings and minimizing human error, I’m hard-pressed to find another time in history with as much potential for a corporate profits bonanza. It’s impossible to predict all the ways this robo-revolution will affect society, but one thing is certain: The replacement of expensive human workers with their efficient robot counterparts will be a boon to the bottom line. #-ad_banner-#While timelines for widespread adoption in most industries puts this transformation decades out or more, there is one industry that could see massive changes in the next couple of years. In fact, a robot recently drove 2,400 miles to prove it could do the work of a human worker. Robots Are Already Behind The Wheel Of The Largest Big Rigs Embark’s self-driving semi-truck has completed the first cross-country trip from Los Angeles to Jacksonville, Florida. The truck completed the 2,400 mile trip with only rare disengagements that required the driver to take over. Autonomous driving is developing along multiple paths, which could help the tech find a mass-market solution faster. Embark’s technology uses machine learning along with data… Read More

Medical experts fear that the current flu season could be one of the worst in history. Hospitalizations are already well above average, with California victims being hospitalized at four times 2014 levels. To make matters worse, the CDC is estimating that flu vaccines available may only be about 30% effective to the strain this year compared to an average effectiveness of 45% over the last decade. Top it off with the recent announcement that the CDC is planning to cut up to 80% of its epidemic prevention activities around the globe and this could just be… Read More

Medical experts fear that the current flu season could be one of the worst in history. Hospitalizations are already well above average, with California victims being hospitalized at four times 2014 levels. To make matters worse, the CDC is estimating that flu vaccines available may only be about 30% effective to the strain this year compared to an average effectiveness of 45% over the last decade. Top it off with the recent announcement that the CDC is planning to cut up to 80% of its epidemic prevention activities around the globe and this could just be the start of widespread health outbreaks that threaten the United States. #-ad_banner-#Even if you can’t protect yourself from getting the flu this year, you can protect your portfolio with companies that stand to benefit from heightened risk of pandemic contagions. Besides the potential to beat expectations for the fourth quarter of last year and first-quarter results this year, these companies could see higher sales in the future if slashed funding for disease prevention fails to stop more outbreaks. Why This Year’s Flu Is One Of The Worst In History The CDC reports the flu is now widespread in 46… Read More