As I wrote on Wednesday, the Paris climate change conference (COP21) is now in full swing. If it results in a binding global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’ll see winners and losers as governments around the world initiate or intensify policies to execute the plan. As an example of what might occur, take India, the world’s second-largest country by population and the seventh-largest economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to reduce emissions by 35% of 2005 levels and raise the percentage of its power generation that comes from non-fossil fuels to 40%. That will mean quadrupling its… Read More

As I wrote on Wednesday, the Paris climate change conference (COP21) is now in full swing. If it results in a binding global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’ll see winners and losers as governments around the world initiate or intensify policies to execute the plan. As an example of what might occur, take India, the world’s second-largest country by population and the seventh-largest economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to reduce emissions by 35% of 2005 levels and raise the percentage of its power generation that comes from non-fossil fuels to 40%. That will mean quadrupling its capacity of renewable energy generation by 2022, to 175 gigawatts. (By comparison, the United States’ current total renewable capacity was around 165 gigawatts in 2014.) #-ad_banner-#This is an ambitious goal, but experts say it’s achievable. Amazingly, 300 million people in India have no electricity today — so the nation needs to make enormous investments in energy infrastructure anyway. They’ll just do so with renewables — mainly solar and wind. India plans to add 100 gigawatts of solar capacity, 60 of wind, 10 of biomass and five of hydroelectric. And that’s just India. All of the major economies are making similar… Read More

You’ve probably seen coverage on the news: This week marks a summit of global leaders to talk about the challenges of climate change, and how they will pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Named the “twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties” by the United Nations, or COP21 for short, the Paris talks include delegations from 195 countries, representing most of the world and all of its largest economies. Unlike past conferences intended to address climate change, this one is expected to result in a global plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions considerably over the next decade through legally… Read More

You’ve probably seen coverage on the news: This week marks a summit of global leaders to talk about the challenges of climate change, and how they will pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Named the “twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties” by the United Nations, or COP21 for short, the Paris talks include delegations from 195 countries, representing most of the world and all of its largest economies. Unlike past conferences intended to address climate change, this one is expected to result in a global plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions considerably over the next decade through legally binding commitments — in effect, a global climate change treaty. Many countries, including the United States and China, have already made formal commitments to reduce emissions; there’s also stronger political support than ever before to do so — outside of the United States, where climate-change skepticism remains a political force, the overwhelming consensus is that action is urgently needed, supported by scientific evidence that no credible scientist disputes. The biggest potential snag to an international climate change treaty: the largest emerging markets, such as India and Brazil, which plan to expand energy use dramatically in the coming decades and fear… Read More

It’s been the worst of times for savers. For more than seven years now, short-term Treasury notes — and their close relatives, money market funds — have delivered close to zero yield. This unprecedented period has meant the most conservative investors have had little or no income from their excess cash. Is the money market drought about to end? I say, don’t hold your breath. Some observers have high hopes, based on the Federal Reserve Board’s clear intent to raise the short-term rates it controls in the near future — probably as soon as December. These rates directly impact short-term… Read More

It’s been the worst of times for savers. For more than seven years now, short-term Treasury notes — and their close relatives, money market funds — have delivered close to zero yield. This unprecedented period has meant the most conservative investors have had little or no income from their excess cash. Is the money market drought about to end? I say, don’t hold your breath. Some observers have high hopes, based on the Federal Reserve Board’s clear intent to raise the short-term rates it controls in the near future — probably as soon as December. These rates directly impact short-term bond rates and money-market funds, as well as the interest rates banks pay depositors savings and checking accounts. The good news is the Fed’s imminent rate-hike policy will boost yields for money market funds and depositors. The bad news: it won’t help much. In my view, it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will raise short-term rates more than 75 basis points (0.75 percentage points) over the next 12 months. Long story short, the U.S. economy isn’t growing fast enough to warrant an aggressive series of rate hikes, and with China’s economic growth slowing and a presidential election coming up, the… Read More

As we roll through Thanksgiving and into the holiday season, investors can look ahead with some trepidation about turmoil in the Middle East, slowing growth in China and rising interest rates here at home. But there are plenty of reasons to be thankful, as well. For one, U.S. stocks have remained in an extended bull market for many years. The S&P 500 has a five-year annualized return of 14.2%, a tremendous run that has helped millions of Americans recover from the losses of the financial crisis. And while stocks have taken a relative breather this year, they remain in an… Read More

As we roll through Thanksgiving and into the holiday season, investors can look ahead with some trepidation about turmoil in the Middle East, slowing growth in China and rising interest rates here at home. But there are plenty of reasons to be thankful, as well. For one, U.S. stocks have remained in an extended bull market for many years. The S&P 500 has a five-year annualized return of 14.2%, a tremendous run that has helped millions of Americans recover from the losses of the financial crisis. And while stocks have taken a relative breather this year, they remain in an uptrend that could well continue given the U.S. economy’s resilience. #-ad_banner-#Earlier this week, the Commerce Department revised upward its estimate for third quarter U.S. GDP growth to a 2.1% annual pace — not gangbusters, but quite healthy given the strong dollar, which hurts U.S. exports, and the ongoing woes in the energy sector. Two more positive reports came Wednesday morning: new jobless claims fell more than expected, and durable goods orders rose more than expected. So despite the headwinds, the U.S. economy keeps chugging along. We’re enjoying a long period of moderate growth. That’s less thrilling than a short period… Read More

Volatility is ticking up in the U.S. stock market — no surprise, after the tragic terrorist attack in Paris last week, the political debate that followed, continued mixed signals on the economic front and the upcoming climate change talks in Paris Big moves in the market can cause anxiety, but they can also represent an opportunity for savvy investors. In this case they could be a chance to add shares of stocks most likely to overperform in 2016. Several signs point to a shift in market leadership from growth stocks — the darlings of recent years — to value stocks,… Read More

Volatility is ticking up in the U.S. stock market — no surprise, after the tragic terrorist attack in Paris last week, the political debate that followed, continued mixed signals on the economic front and the upcoming climate change talks in Paris Big moves in the market can cause anxiety, but they can also represent an opportunity for savvy investors. In this case they could be a chance to add shares of stocks most likely to overperform in 2016. Several signs point to a shift in market leadership from growth stocks — the darlings of recent years — to value stocks, making now a great time to buy. Most important, recent strong job growth figures indicate that the Federal Reserve is very likely to raise short-term interest rates in December, the first of what could be a multi-step process of rate hikes as the Fed moves modestly away from the emergency zero-interest-rate policy of the post-financial crisis period to a more traditional low-rate stance. The November jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment rate at only 5%. Below that level, economists tend to predict that inflation will rise. That’s because higher employment levels correlate with rising consumer spending, which can push prices… Read More

The personal computer, the Internet and mobile devices all revolutionized our society. But over the past two or three years, it seems the pace of innovation has slowed — at least for consumers. Yes, we’ve seen the introduction of better, faster smartphones and variations on the theme such as smart watches. But what’s next? The answer, technologists say, is the “Internet of Things” — a new wave of real-world uses for smart technologies such as networking, sensors, GPS, data collection and management, and the like. The idea is to make more machines “smart.” The most commonly cited examples are Fitbits,… Read More

The personal computer, the Internet and mobile devices all revolutionized our society. But over the past two or three years, it seems the pace of innovation has slowed — at least for consumers. Yes, we’ve seen the introduction of better, faster smartphones and variations on the theme such as smart watches. But what’s next? The answer, technologists say, is the “Internet of Things” — a new wave of real-world uses for smart technologies such as networking, sensors, GPS, data collection and management, and the like. The idea is to make more machines “smart.” The most commonly cited examples are Fitbits, which monitor exercise stats and store them as data for later analysis. When you use your smartphone to turn up the thermostat remotely, you’re using the Internet of Things. Less popular so far, but on the market: smart tennis rackets, saucepans and silverware (spoons that tell you how much soup or ice cream you’ve eaten). While some of these products seem more fanciful than practical, experts agree that there’s huge room for growth in Internet of Things (or “IOT”) applications. For example, manufacturing costs may be reduced significantly by efficiency improvements brought by machines that are not only automated but… Read More

Successful investing isn’t easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But some tried and true principles give disciplined, patient investors an edge. One such principle is identifying immutable long-term trends and finding companies likely to benefit. #-ad_banner-#The most powerful, enduring long-term trend in American life right now is the aging population. No government policy, new technology or unforeseen circumstance will change the fact that the Baby Boom population is moving into its senior years, working its way through America’s demographic body like a meal through a python. That bulge in population means some parts of our economy will grow… Read More

Successful investing isn’t easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But some tried and true principles give disciplined, patient investors an edge. One such principle is identifying immutable long-term trends and finding companies likely to benefit. #-ad_banner-#The most powerful, enduring long-term trend in American life right now is the aging population. No government policy, new technology or unforeseen circumstance will change the fact that the Baby Boom population is moving into its senior years, working its way through America’s demographic body like a meal through a python. That bulge in population means some parts of our economy will grow at a faster rate than others for many years to come. About 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. By 2030, more than 20% of the population will be over 65 years old and more than a third will be over 50. By 2050, the population aged 65 or older will be an estimated 84 million, vs. 43.1 million in 2012; the population of Americans 85 or older will be an estimated 18 million, vs. 5.9 million in 2012. That means a rapidly expanding market for companies that sell products or services to older Americans. Its commonplace to read… Read More

As I discussed last week, China — while still among the fastest-growing of the world’s largest economies — is going through some economic doldrums. Its GDP is expected to grow less than 7% in 2015, down from an average of 8.1% annually for the first four years of the decade. I told you last week about some of the industries, and a few specific companies, that have enormous exposure to China. If your portfolio is heavily leveraged on Chinese growth, you may want to pare back holdings in these areas. #-ad_banner-#Today, I’ll highlight another stock that has no exposure to… Read More

As I discussed last week, China — while still among the fastest-growing of the world’s largest economies — is going through some economic doldrums. Its GDP is expected to grow less than 7% in 2015, down from an average of 8.1% annually for the first four years of the decade. I told you last week about some of the industries, and a few specific companies, that have enormous exposure to China. If your portfolio is heavily leveraged on Chinese growth, you may want to pare back holdings in these areas. #-ad_banner-#Today, I’ll highlight another stock that has no exposure to China’s economy. A slowdown that’s worse than expected over there will have no impact on this all-American gem’s bottom line. Before I get to the specific recommendation, consider the parts of our economy that don’t do much business with China — either by selling goods and services to China’s huge, growing middle class or by taking advantage of Chinese manufacturing plants.  The most obvious such area is a service provider focused solely on U.S. customers. For example, most hospital and home healthcare companies have little overseas exposure other than in Canada; Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND) is a prominent example. And… Read More

It could be the most important meeting you haven’t heard about: in China this week, the Central Committee of the Communist Party is meeting to come up with a new Five-Year Plan for the world’s most populous nation — the 13th such blueprint since Chairman Mao started the practice in 1953. Much has changed since the 1950s. Thanks to its strategic shift toward a market-based economy over the past three decades, China’s GDP has grown more than 25-fold since 1990, and more than 10-fold in the past decade alone. China is now the world’s second-largest economy to the United States… Read More

It could be the most important meeting you haven’t heard about: in China this week, the Central Committee of the Communist Party is meeting to come up with a new Five-Year Plan for the world’s most populous nation — the 13th such blueprint since Chairman Mao started the practice in 1953. Much has changed since the 1950s. Thanks to its strategic shift toward a market-based economy over the past three decades, China’s GDP has grown more than 25-fold since 1990, and more than 10-fold in the past decade alone. China is now the world’s second-largest economy to the United States — and its future is increasingly important to ours. China’s economy has helped drive sales for thousands of publicly traded U.S. stocks, from exporters of specialized equipment such as General Electric to consumer-goods and restaurant companies like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Yum! Brands. Consider that China is a bigger market for Apple than Europe is; it’s no longer an emerging market — it’s the market that counts the most outside of our borders. And that’s why recent signs of pronounced slowdown in China’s rate of growth are so concerning. We’re not talking about a recession, or anything close to… Read More

In the wake of reports pointing toward a slowing economy, this past week brought troubling signs that the United States may be facing a period of slight deflation — that is, on average, prices of goods and services are declining rather than rising. While deflation is far from a sure thing, it’s important to understand the impact it would have on our economy, and how it could affect your investments. First, let’s look at the indicators. On Wednesday, the Labor Department said the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in September, a bigger drop than the expected 0.2% decline. The… Read More

In the wake of reports pointing toward a slowing economy, this past week brought troubling signs that the United States may be facing a period of slight deflation — that is, on average, prices of goods and services are declining rather than rising. While deflation is far from a sure thing, it’s important to understand the impact it would have on our economy, and how it could affect your investments. First, let’s look at the indicators. On Wednesday, the Labor Department said the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in September, a bigger drop than the expected 0.2% decline. The PPI measures wholesale prices that are part of businesses’ supply chains and have an indirect impact on consumer prices. Much of the reason for the PPI decline was energy prices. We’ve seen a continuation of the bear market in oil and natural gas — leading gasoline prices to their lowest levels in nine years. Retail prices show signs of falling, too. As part of its disappointing sales and earnings guidance on Wednesday, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) suggested it would cut prices during the holiday season to attract shoppers. Irish-based Primark, known for rock-bottom prices on apparel, has entered the U.S. market… Read More