Energy & Commodities

I’ve noticed an emerging trend from my subscribers. It started out about two years ago as a whisper. Month by month, email by email, that whisper has become a little louder. Today, I’m hearing it loud and clear and received my last email about it just a… Read More

I believe the odds of a double-dip recession in 2011 are high — very high. The U.S. and global economies are struggling. You might think that good earnings reports here in the United States are indicative of an… Read More

Careful what you wish for. That’s the hard-learned lesson gleaned by investors and industry executives seeking their fortune in natural gas. Just a few years ago, they wished to find more natural gas in the ground and under the sea bed. They did, hitting mother lode after mother lode. Now,… Read More

By the end of Monday’s trading, investors began to question whether China will really follow through with plans to boost its currency. Earlier in the day, we opined that change is coming, albeit more slowly than many would like. Even after the dust settled and many China-related stocks gave back their gains, shares of metals makers – especially aluminum producers – held onto sharp advances. Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday,… Read More

By the end of Monday’s trading, investors began to question whether China will really follow through with plans to boost its currency. Earlier in the day, we opined that change is coming, albeit more slowly than many would like. Even after the dust settled and many China-related stocks gave back their gains, shares of metals makers – especially aluminum producers – held onto sharp advances. Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. For both of these firms, investors need to brace for some short-term pain but real long-term gains. A Tough Start to Earnings Season Alcoa, which always kicks off earnings season, will likely set a somber tone. Analysts have been lowering their second-quarter profit forecast from $0.28 to $0.16 during the past few weeks, and that still looks too high. Spot pricing for aluminum has been… Read More

Put that cork back in the champagne bottle. As the dust has settled, it’s increasingly clear that China’s bold actions this weekend regarding its currency may be less bold than it seems. Clearly, the Chinese yuan will get stronger and the U.S. dollar will get weaker, but it will take several years — or longer — for any real positive benefits to be felt. Nevertheless, you can identify the long-term winners and losers from a stronger Chinese currency. Watching Paint Dry The Chinese government announced over the weekend… Read More

Put that cork back in the champagne bottle. As the dust has settled, it’s increasingly clear that China’s bold actions this weekend regarding its currency may be less bold than it seems. Clearly, the Chinese yuan will get stronger and the U.S. dollar will get weaker, but it will take several years — or longer — for any real positive benefits to be felt. Nevertheless, you can identify the long-term winners and losers from a stronger Chinese currency. Watching Paint Dry The Chinese government announced over the weekend that it would loosen the fixed rate at which dollars and the yuan can be exchanged, responding to increasing pressure from lawmakers in the United States and elsewhere. That led to a quick +0.4% gain in Monday trading for the yuan. And that’s all you should expect for the near-term. From time to time, the Chinese government will slightly loosen the band further, and the currency will make another quick +0.4% to +0.5% move. But we may not see more than a handful of those moves each year. Translation: it may be several years before the yuan gains +10% from… Read More

After surging to a new all-time high of $1,258.58 an ounce on Friday, the yellow metal certainly could come under pressure from profit-taking or some other yet unknown exogenous event. However, for lots and lots of reasons, I like gold in this market. Here’s why: To begin… Read More

The oil industry is in the midst of dealing with one of the largest spills in history. The consequences could be dire for firms focused on offshore drilling, with a current six-month moratorium on drilling in the United States and a slew of new regulations and safety procedures being prepared… Read More

With the market oscillating between down and flat for the year, an old friend of mine, Tom, asked the other day why I was so chipper about the market. He had just received his 401(k) statement and was very disappointed. “I’m up,” I told him. “I’m way… Read More