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In global economics, there are several emerging truisms. Growth is likely to be somewhat muted in the West as efforts to reverse massive budget deficits will create a drag as governments tax more than they spend. A second truism: emerging market economies have come a very long way in a very short time, and they’re unlikely to revert to their old habits that stifled growth. [See: “Forget About BRIC — Buy These Emerging Economies Instead”] The third truism: these upstart economies are likely to stumble on their way to a higher plane. The biggest concern:… Read More

In global economics, there are several emerging truisms. Growth is likely to be somewhat muted in the West as efforts to reverse massive budget deficits will create a drag as governments tax more than they spend. A second truism: emerging market economies have come a very long way in a very short time, and they’re unlikely to revert to their old habits that stifled growth. [See: “Forget About BRIC — Buy These Emerging Economies Instead”] The third truism: these upstart economies are likely to stumble on their way to a higher plane. The biggest concern: inflation. It’s just appearing now, and could well get much worse in 2011. And if that happens, many of the world’s hottest stock markets — many of which have doubled or even tripled in the past two years — could be hit by profit-taking. In recent days China has expressed increasing concern that inflation is starting to percolate. The government is seeking to rein in bank lending and has also started to impose price controls on key foodstuffs. But China is lucky. Its economy has so many hidden strengths, its… Read More

The coming year marks the 20th anniversary of the first use of “Dogs of the Dow” as an investment strategy, which focuses on the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). In theory, these high yielders have been oversold (as… Read More

The impressive trading action on Wednesday holds an important lesson for investors. In the absence of any dire economic news, investors are playing a bullish hand. Earlier in the week, economic woes in Europe had pushed many to the sidelines. With a sense that a fresh crisis… Read More

Which sector is going to be hot in 2011? If history is any clue, it won’t be what was hot in 2010. In fact, a look back through history tells us the leading groups in one year often become disappointments the next. Moreover, lagging sectors in one particular year often blaze bullish trails in the next. Technology is one such example. Though the sector led the way in 2009 with a whopping +57% jump — and attracted a lot of buyers based on that strength — these stocks have actually scored in the bottom half of all… Read More

Which sector is going to be hot in 2011? If history is any clue, it won’t be what was hot in 2010. In fact, a look back through history tells us the leading groups in one year often become disappointments the next. Moreover, lagging sectors in one particular year often blaze bullish trails in the next. Technology is one such example. Though the sector led the way in 2009 with a whopping +57% jump — and attracted a lot of buyers based on that strength — these stocks have actually scored in the bottom half of all sectors during 2010, trailing the market by more than a little. Before identifying what’s waiting in the wings for 2011 though, let’s just walk through the industry ebb and flow for 2010 — using iShares’ major sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a proxy to verify the premise. For the year so far, while basic materials haven’t surprised anyone as a leading group, it has not actually been the hottest sector of 2010. That title belongs to consumer services, up +18% year-to-date. Basic materials stocks are up an average of +14% for the year,… Read More

Most of the stuff that’s on sale this time of year isn’t worth the plastic it’s wrapped in. Yet almost everyone winds up dropping hundreds or even thousands of dollars on “holiday bargains” that provide a quick thrill and then are just as quickly forgotten. A better use for your… Read More

In the final stages of the dot-com boom, a number of stocks tacked on stunning gains day after day, in what’s known as a “melt-up.” These stocks were no longer logically valued on any sort of fundamental basis, and instead were squarely in the hands of momentum investors that know… Read More