The direction of the stock market in 2011 could well be determined in the next few months, as I noted last week. At the time, I suggested you tune in to Tuesday’s economic reports for the next read on the economy‘s pulse. With these reports hitting the tape, let’s see what the economy is telling us: Manufacturing heats up A monthly survey of business activity in Chicago (PMI) is flashing green. The index came in at 62.5, nicely ahead of forecasts of 60.0. (Any reading above 50.0 signals expansion in… Read More

The direction of the stock market in 2011 could well be determined in the next few months, as I noted last week. At the time, I suggested you tune in to Tuesday’s economic reports for the next read on the economy‘s pulse. With these reports hitting the tape, let’s see what the economy is telling us: Manufacturing heats up A monthly survey of business activity in Chicago (PMI) is flashing green. The index came in at 62.5, nicely ahead of forecasts of 60.0. (Any reading above 50.0 signals expansion in the factory sector). And the numbers behind the big number look even better. A gauge of new orders rose from 65.0 in October to 67.2 in November, and inventories fell sequentially from 54.9 to 48.4. That sub-50 reading means that inventories may be getting too lean, so we may be on the cusp of another inventory rebuilding cycle. It also means that economists are likely to raise their PMI forecasts for the next few months. Investors may want to see this level sustained for a few more months before calling it a trend. The… Read More

While staying focused on your best long-term ideas, it also helps to boost your portfolio by looking for stocks with a chance for quick moderate gains. And in the tech sector, we’ve seen all kinds of headline-induced winners in the past six months, thanks to M&A activity, robust quarterly results… Read More

It’s become a bit of a holiday tradition. Each year in October, I step back and take a long hard look at where I think the market will be heading for the next year. It’s easy to get caught up in the trivial aspects of day-to-day market… Read More

When the entire value of a company shrinks down to the amount of cash on its balance sheet, you know investors have lost all interest. For AMAG Pharma (Nasdaq: AMAG), that’s precisely what happened. The biotech firm’s market value recently slipped below $300 million, less than the $304 million it recently had parked on its balance sheet. Investors assumed that the company was toast after its iron-boosting drug for use with dialysis patients was raising too many safety concerns with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In recent… Read More

When the entire value of a company shrinks down to the amount of cash on its balance sheet, you know investors have lost all interest. For AMAG Pharma (Nasdaq: AMAG), that’s precisely what happened. The biotech firm’s market value recently slipped below $300 million, less than the $304 million it recently had parked on its balance sheet. Investors assumed that the company was toast after its iron-boosting drug for use with dialysis patients was raising too many safety concerns with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In recent weeks, investors grew to believe the FDA would halt the drug outright, or at least force AMAG to use such burdensome warnings on its labels that most potential clients would simply steer clear. The good news is that the FDA has agreed to more moderate safety warnings. The better news is that analysts now think even moderate sales for Ferahame, AMAG’s leading drug, would still yield decent profits and that shares have ample upside after falling from $50 in January to a recent $16.  Pricey but necessary Iron… Read More

Gold is the worst investment around. Anyone buying it now is doing so at their own risk, near the end of a bull run that’s apt to end badly. A major clue gold’s time is up: institutions and hedge funds are starting to… Read More

Taking aggressive steps to boost sales can be a wise move. But if you try to do too much too fast, investors can quickly grow concerned if rapid expansion plans are creating too much risk. That was the concern with LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) in the past year, which borrowed… Read More

I’ve never worked a day on Wall Street. I’ve never worked at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) or a hedge fund, either. I’m not what you call an insider by any means.   But that hasn’t stopped me from being a successful investor. Read More

The S&P 500 is back near where it was a month ago. A surge into November has been met by recent profit-taking as we head into the Thanksgiving holidays. In pullbacks like these, I like to scan the lists of losing stocks to see if any bargains get uncovered. I… Read More

Much has been made of last week’s General Motors (NYSE: GM) IPO. But while everyone has been talking about GM, there is a car company that offers absolutely explosive growth that should be on your radar screen. The high growth segment… Read More

From 700 to 1,200. That’s the stunning move made by the S&P 500 in just 20 months. No one’s expecting that index to tack on another +70% in the next 20 months, but more than a few market watchers are calling for moderate +10% to +15% gains next year. For that to happen, the economy must prove to be on a path to health, with 2011 GDP growth rates exceeding what we’re getting in 2010. Indeed third-quarter GDP has just been upwardly revised from +2.0% to +2.5%. But a… Read More

From 700 to 1,200. That’s the stunning move made by the S&P 500 in just 20 months. No one’s expecting that index to tack on another +70% in the next 20 months, but more than a few market watchers are calling for moderate +10% to +15% gains next year. For that to happen, the economy must prove to be on a path to health, with 2011 GDP growth rates exceeding what we’re getting in 2010. Indeed third-quarter GDP has just been upwardly revised from +2.0% to +2.5%. But a just-released forecast from the National Association for Business Economics should give pause. The survey of economists anticipates GDP growth of +2.6% in 2011, down from +2.7% in 2010. And that just won’t cut it. So many components of the economic picture are reliant on more robust growth to finally become healthy again. Let’s look at what the difference would be between +2.0% to +2.5% growth and +3.5% to +4.0% growth in various parts of the economy. Based on the picture painted from these outcomes, you’ll want to adjust your portfolio accordingly. Read More