It’s officially summer. I know this based on the regularly scheduled thundershower at 2 p.m. daily and the number of miles put on the family truckster taking my youngest son to college lacrosse prospect camps. It’s also the midway point of the year, which means it’s time to take a look at the market and our portfolios. —Recommended Link— $40K A Year For Life… (Takes 20 Minutes) Want an extra $40,653 a year in bonus income? You need to see this… and fast. It shows the five simple steps to take to start collecting this money. Your checks should… Read More

It’s officially summer. I know this based on the regularly scheduled thundershower at 2 p.m. daily and the number of miles put on the family truckster taking my youngest son to college lacrosse prospect camps. It’s also the midway point of the year, which means it’s time to take a look at the market and our portfolios. —Recommended Link— $40K A Year For Life… (Takes 20 Minutes) Want an extra $40,653 a year in bonus income? You need to see this… and fast. It shows the five simple steps to take to start collecting this money. Your checks should start coming in within a month… and continue to roll in forever. You can even pass your payments on to your heirs… and they can collect the money after you’re gone. It’s all here. And you can get set up in 20 minutes. So, how are we doing? If this market had a name, I’d call it the “Larry David Market” after the caustic comic genius who co-created “Seinfeld” and the wonderfully inappropriate “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” That’s the best way to describe what’s going on. After hitting a record high in January, the S&P 500 has given most… Read More

The tired old “Sell in May and Go Away” didn’t ring true this year. In fact, with the return of volatility to the market (a good thing), it looks like we’re set for a move up. The S&P 500 eked out a 2.2% gain for the month of May, which is about the same as the previous year. Even more interesting, although I do not profess to be a wiggle reader, it does appear that market volatility has resulted in the market putting what appears to be a double bottom in place. Typically, a double bottom is a… Read More

The tired old “Sell in May and Go Away” didn’t ring true this year. In fact, with the return of volatility to the market (a good thing), it looks like we’re set for a move up. The S&P 500 eked out a 2.2% gain for the month of May, which is about the same as the previous year. Even more interesting, although I do not profess to be a wiggle reader, it does appear that market volatility has resulted in the market putting what appears to be a double bottom in place. Typically, a double bottom is a bullish signal. Whether we have the beginning of a summer rally or not remains to be seen. However, market volatility has created some compelling price opportunities in more stocks than you would #-ad_banner-#think. Here are three of my favorite high-quality names: B&G Foods (NYSE: BGS) – Look in your pantry or your fridge or your freezer, there’s a better than 50% chance you got a couple of this company’s brands on the shelf. This $28 billion packaged food firm has been quietly acquiring old brands and breathing new and profitable life into them. Reviving stalwarts, such as Ortega, Cream of… Read More

From a demographic trend standpoint, the 20th century in the United States was the “Century of the Named Generations”. Ok, cut me some slack. It’s hard to come up with catchphrases sometimes. The second decade of the 20th Century saw the rise of the post-World War I Lost Generation, so named because of the horror of the world’s first, truly modern war inflicted on those who served and returned forever scarred. Then, from the Great Depression and World War II came the Greatest Generation, who persevered through two enormous global crises and emerged victorious. #-ad_banner-#Their prosperity begat the Baby Boom… Read More

From a demographic trend standpoint, the 20th century in the United States was the “Century of the Named Generations”. Ok, cut me some slack. It’s hard to come up with catchphrases sometimes. The second decade of the 20th Century saw the rise of the post-World War I Lost Generation, so named because of the horror of the world’s first, truly modern war inflicted on those who served and returned forever scarred. Then, from the Great Depression and World War II came the Greatest Generation, who persevered through two enormous global crises and emerged victorious. #-ad_banner-#Their prosperity begat the Baby Boom Generation. The 1990s typified the so-called Generation X (also the name of Billy Idol’s punk rock band) of which I am a member. Originally referred to as “slackers” due to the tight job market we found ourselves in during the Bush 41 recession when most of us graduated from college. Most of us are 50 years old now, sending our own children to college and doing quite fine, thank you. Then Came The Millennials Despite the Civil War-sized beards, skinny jeans, and craft beer, this generation is the largest consumer force the American economy has ever seen. According to… Read More

Mark Twain is credited with the old axiom, “History doesn’t always repeat, but it can rhyme.” I’m a firm believer in that and right now, history is rhyming like a Dr. Seuss book. Recently, I listened to a research called hosted by RBC Capital Markets’ technical strategist Bob Dickey, an old hand in our industry. Near-term he was a bit cautious. However, his long-term view is bullish. One of my takeaways was Dickey’s long view that U.S. equity markets seem to run in 16- to 18-year secular cycles. So, the history nerd in me decided to put the old S&P… Read More

Mark Twain is credited with the old axiom, “History doesn’t always repeat, but it can rhyme.” I’m a firm believer in that and right now, history is rhyming like a Dr. Seuss book. Recently, I listened to a research called hosted by RBC Capital Markets’ technical strategist Bob Dickey, an old hand in our industry. Near-term he was a bit cautious. However, his long-term view is bullish. One of my takeaways was Dickey’s long view that U.S. equity markets seem to run in 16- to 18-year secular cycles. So, the history nerd in me decided to put the old S&P 500 long chart to the test. Looking at the similar cycles (all of them effectively came out to 18 years) and applying the historical context to each period, Dickey is dead on. In modern history, it appears that 18 years of socio-political-economic challenge and upheaval is typically followed by 18 years of relative peace, economic growth and technological innovation. There’s no argument that we have been through 18 years of upheaval. Are we heading for a better stretch in which investors will enjoy an extended bull market? It’s impossible to know for sure. However, the tea leaves would… Read More

One of my favorite TV shows of the ’80s was “The A-Team.” While short on being highbrow entertainment, the show was long on stuff blowing up and catchphrases. While Mr. T’s “Fool!” was the fan favorite, I was always partial to the cigar chomping Colonel Hannibal Smith’s “I love it when a plan comes together.” If he had been long in oil in mid-March, he’d be breaking out the stogies. Two months ago, I published an article profiling oil and where it was going. It came in right on target. #-ad_banner-#After a big move in a short time is the… Read More

One of my favorite TV shows of the ’80s was “The A-Team.” While short on being highbrow entertainment, the show was long on stuff blowing up and catchphrases. While Mr. T’s “Fool!” was the fan favorite, I was always partial to the cigar chomping Colonel Hannibal Smith’s “I love it when a plan comes together.” If he had been long in oil in mid-March, he’d be breaking out the stogies. Two months ago, I published an article profiling oil and where it was going. It came in right on target. #-ad_banner-#After a big move in a short time is the run done? Not yet. Let me add a caveat to that. While the upside in the actual black, dead dinosaur and plant matter stuff may be limited, a lot of oil-related stocks have not participated in the move for one reason or another. Here are some that make sense and are trading at attractive levels. Enbridge Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EEP) — Focusing on petroleum liquids gathering, transportation and storage.While the unit price took a painful 27% hit after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s tax policy ruling regarding master limited partnerships (MLP’s), analysts are confident that Enbridge can cover its… Read More

I read a lot of research. It’s my job. I don’t mind. Comes with the territory. Most of it just involves gathering data and checking the pulse of what’s going on. There are only a handful of analysts, though, whose work I follow consistently. One of those is Stifel Nicolaus equity strategist Barry Bannister. #-ad_banner-#Bannister predicted the violent pullback the market enjoyed in February, and, in a recent report, the outlook is rather gloomy. “Our models for the S&P 500 point to minimal price upside in 2018 and a bear market (-20%) in the coming year,” Bannister writes. “What matters… Read More

I read a lot of research. It’s my job. I don’t mind. Comes with the territory. Most of it just involves gathering data and checking the pulse of what’s going on. There are only a handful of analysts, though, whose work I follow consistently. One of those is Stifel Nicolaus equity strategist Barry Bannister. #-ad_banner-#Bannister predicted the violent pullback the market enjoyed in February, and, in a recent report, the outlook is rather gloomy. “Our models for the S&P 500 point to minimal price upside in 2018 and a bear market (-20%) in the coming year,” Bannister writes. “What matters for investors,” he continues. “is that any decline is likely to be unusually rapid…” Gulp. The culprit, according to the analyst, was and will be the Fed and other central banks around the world. Bannister believes that central bankers are tightening monetary policy too aggressively and markets are reacting negatively to the action. He recommends that investors start moving to more defensive positions in consumer staples and utility stocks. His timing may be dead on. This chart is a good indicator. The thin line is the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the thicker line representing the Dow Utilities. Read More

One of my many favorite Buffettisms is, “I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars. I look around for 1-foot bars I can step over.” The Oracle did not get rich by accident. In keeping with that maxim, one criteria I’ve always used for stock selection is comparing the underlying company’s five-year average earnings per share growth rate to the five-year average annual growth rate of U.S. GDP. #-ad_banner-#I know. GDP growth has been anemic for almost a decade. But consider this: Over the last five years, the United States has enjoyed moderate economic expansion after the collapse of 2008… Read More

One of my many favorite Buffettisms is, “I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars. I look around for 1-foot bars I can step over.” The Oracle did not get rich by accident. In keeping with that maxim, one criteria I’ve always used for stock selection is comparing the underlying company’s five-year average earnings per share growth rate to the five-year average annual growth rate of U.S. GDP. #-ad_banner-#I know. GDP growth has been anemic for almost a decade. But consider this: Over the last five years, the United States has enjoyed moderate economic expansion after the collapse of 2008 and the subsequent recession. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.36% over the last five years. Not great. But better than the plunge the economy experienced in 2008. The three stocks I’ve selected have grown EPS at nearly 6% annually over the last five years. U.S. economic growth would need to nearly triple to beat that rate. That would be like trying to turn an aircraft carrier in a bathtub. Even going back to 1960, U.S. GDP has grown in an average band of around 5%. The earnings growth… Read More

Back when I was a rookie in the investment biz, the internet bubble was in full inflation mode. There were scores of terrible ideas; pets.com, for one. But there were also a few ideas that would change the world and how we communicate. #-ad_banner-#The area of the internet buildout I was most interested in at the time was what some observers referred to as the “backbone,” which, as it turned out, was just another term for “network”. But it seemed like this was the place to be, much as steel and ancillary services were where the real money was made… Read More

Back when I was a rookie in the investment biz, the internet bubble was in full inflation mode. There were scores of terrible ideas; pets.com, for one. But there were also a few ideas that would change the world and how we communicate. #-ad_banner-#The area of the internet buildout I was most interested in at the time was what some observers referred to as the “backbone,” which, as it turned out, was just another term for “network”. But it seemed like this was the place to be, much as steel and ancillary services were where the real money was made during the American railroad boom of the mid-nineteenth century. Companies at the top of the backbone buildout food chain included Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), the scandalous and now-defunct Worldcom, Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC), and old-tech-turned-new-tech Corning (NYSE: GLW). I’ve owned, traded, and written about Corning in the past. It’s time to have another look. Once commanding triple-digit valuations during the mania of the late 90s Tech Bubble, GLW traded in a normal range until the return of volatility earlier this year. An unforgiving reckoning shaved 24% off the stock’s price as tech names across the board… Read More

Goldfinger is my favorite James Bond movie. Best villain. Best majordomo. Best bad-girl-turns-good-girl. Best one-liners. All of it. Even funnier is the villain’s, the portly Aurelius Goldfinger, obsession with one of the world’s worst investments: gold. But, he was a Bond villain. And gold is the currency of Bond villains, pirates, and South African mercenaries. #-ad_banner-#It doesn’t belong in a portfolio. Now, before the goldbugs come after me with pitchforks and torches, let me share with you a few nuggets (ha!) from Warren Buffett, another guy who thinks gold is a lousy place to put one’s money. Here’s his most… Read More

Goldfinger is my favorite James Bond movie. Best villain. Best majordomo. Best bad-girl-turns-good-girl. Best one-liners. All of it. Even funnier is the villain’s, the portly Aurelius Goldfinger, obsession with one of the world’s worst investments: gold. But, he was a Bond villain. And gold is the currency of Bond villains, pirates, and South African mercenaries. #-ad_banner-#It doesn’t belong in a portfolio. Now, before the goldbugs come after me with pitchforks and torches, let me share with you a few nuggets (ha!) from Warren Buffett, another guy who thinks gold is a lousy place to put one’s money. Here’s his most succinct quote regarding that belief: “…If you took all of the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side… it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion, that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States… For $7 trillion, you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (NYSE: XOM) and you could still have $1 trillion of walking around money…” So, let’s put that to a test. Here’s a five-year chart of the SPDR… Read More

In a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) research report highlighted on Business Insider, analysts suggest that, despite the perceived current expensiveness of the stock market, opportunities to buy stocks at decent prices are as ripe as they have been since 2009 when markets began recovering from the financial crisis. They refer to a concept known as “dispersion.” #-ad_banner-#Put simply, “dispersion” reflects how widely market returns are distributed between  “cheap” and “expensive” stocks. Or, paraphrasing half of the oldest of Wall Street maxims, investors have plenty of opportunities to buy low. With this in mind,… Read More

In a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) research report highlighted on Business Insider, analysts suggest that, despite the perceived current expensiveness of the stock market, opportunities to buy stocks at decent prices are as ripe as they have been since 2009 when markets began recovering from the financial crisis. They refer to a concept known as “dispersion.” #-ad_banner-#Put simply, “dispersion” reflects how widely market returns are distributed between  “cheap” and “expensive” stocks. Or, paraphrasing half of the oldest of Wall Street maxims, investors have plenty of opportunities to buy low. With this in mind, I screened for stocks with forward price to earnings ratios (P/E) lower than that of the S&P 500 (currently 17), a dividend yield one hundred basis points or higher than that of the index (1.83%), and operating in a growth industry or market. Here are three solid names I found. AT&T (NYSE: T) AT&T has made the jump from phone company to an integrated media company, and is determined to not only provide a means for content delivery but to own the content as well. In the media business, at the end of the day, it’s ALWAYS about content. Read More