As we headed into Labor Day, stocks could muster little enthusiasm. A creeping sense that the economy was slowing led to fresh concerns of the dreaded “double-dip” recession. The Federal Reserve was also seeing signs of a slowdown. As a remedy, The Fed began to speak of a tool in its arsenal to help jolt the economy to life. That tool, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), changed the entire perception of the stock market. Investors came to see that… Read More

As we headed into Labor Day, stocks could muster little enthusiasm. A creeping sense that the economy was slowing led to fresh concerns of the dreaded “double-dip” recession. The Federal Reserve was also seeing signs of a slowdown. As a remedy, The Fed began to speak of a tool in its arsenal to help jolt the economy to life. That tool, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), changed the entire perception of the stock market. Investors came to see that the Fed’s move had a real chance of getting the economic ball rolling, which was enough to fuel a heady rally in September that has continued into October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now sits near its 52-week high. But it’s fair to wonder if this steady gain has already accounted for benefits that may be derived from the Fed’s much-discussed QE plans. And it’s also fair to mistrust these kinds of rallies. The Dow surged more than +10% last February and March only to give back all those gains… Read More

Before the economic crisis took hold, the U.S. dollar began a steady downward drift as global investors started to realize that economic growth would be more robust elsewhere in the world. The dollar’s slump was also due to never-ending trade deficits, which had long been expected to weaken the greenback, and finally did so beginning in late 2004. During the next 30 months, the U.S. dollar, compared to the euro, fell from 0.86 euros to 0.63 — a -25% drop. With concerns about the global economic crisis receding, the dollar is… Read More

Before the economic crisis took hold, the U.S. dollar began a steady downward drift as global investors started to realize that economic growth would be more robust elsewhere in the world. The dollar’s slump was also due to never-ending trade deficits, which had long been expected to weaken the greenback, and finally did so beginning in late 2004. During the next 30 months, the U.S. dollar, compared to the euro, fell from 0.86 euros to 0.63 — a -25% drop. With concerns about the global economic crisis receding, the dollar is back on a downward path. As I noted recently, the dollar “now stands at all-time lows against the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc, a 15-year low against the Japanese yen, and more recent lows against the euro.” [What the Global Currency Wars Mean for Your Portfolio] That recent downward move should have an almost immediate impact: export-related profits are bound to come in higher than forecasts in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 as those earnings get repatriated back into dollars. Yet it’s the long-term… Read More

I’ve always been a sucker for the home improvement shows on HGTV. That’s why I planned to sit in front of the TV for just a few minutes while folding laundry over the weekend, but it wasn’t until an hour later that I got moving again. One… Read More

Several months ago, I was lucky enough to sell my home relatively quickly (at full asking price, no less). Unfortunately, when the time came to hand the keys to the new owner, we still hadn’t found a replacement. Luckily, I knew a local commercial property manager who… Read More

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would… Read More

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would think sharing that information with anyone outside the current Fed members would be illegal. You would also think the fact that Meyer charges well-heeled clients $75,000 each for access to what he has heard — well ahead of the investing public — would be unlawful. Amazingly, neither action is illegal, according to a Reuters investigation. One of the Federal Reserve’s main tools is setting target interest rates, and profits can be made or lost based on what the Fed says at its meetings. It makes me mad… Read More

The late-1970s was witness to one of the most remarkable gold rallies in history. From a low of $100 per troy ounce in 1976, prices rose to a then-record $873 by 1980. The culprit? Double-digit rates of inflation. Read More

I have been chewing over our trading expert Mike Turner’s article this week, trying to get a handle on where the stock market can go from here. [Read Mike’s article here] Mike points out that September’s rally seemingly ignores the daunting economic hurdles we face. And his… Read More

The S&P 500 Index is the most commonly tracked investment benchmark in the United States. When you hear about a portfolio manager “beating the market,” chances are it is in reference to outperforming the S&P 500. Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business… Read More

As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [Read Mike’s article here] And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you’ll need to stay nimble. Coming earnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action. With that in mind, let’s look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business conditions may well set the trading tone for the rest of October and beyond. Aloca (NYSE: AA) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. And a few days after that, Alcoa always kicks off earnings season. For the past few years, Alcoa has set a somber tone as global demand for aluminum has been in a slump ever since Europe and the United States headed into the downturn. Yet I recently opined that a turn may be coming for Alcoa. [Read: “The Best… Read More

In recent weeks, stock market pundits have been wrestling with a curious phenomenon. Trading activity has fallen sharply, which these market-watchers presume to mean that investors have lost interest in stocks. Mom-and-pop investors have likely become more gun-shy this year. But the main culprit for lower trading volumes: Wall Street’s… Read More