It’s important to keep track of the moves by insiders, as they can point you in the direction of undervalued (or overvalued) stocks. I like to scan the recent buying and selling lists from insiders either daily or weekly, but a monthly look is… Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the… Read More

There are plenty of good reasons to believe inflation is coming. U.S. government debt has surpassed $9 trillion, nearly tripling from $3.4 trillion in 2000. And things are getting worse. The government ran a deficit of $1.42 trillion in 2009 alone. Even as the economy has recovered, the current administration estimates the deficit for 2010 will be $1.5 trillion. [See Nathan Slaughter’s “Shocking Facts About the U.S. Debt Problem…”] How is the government going to pay all that debt? One way is inflation. The Federal Reserve has every incentive to boost inflation because it would in effect reduce the debt, as it would be paid with devalued dollars. Meanwhile, the government is injecting money into the system by basically giving it away. The current discount rate (the rate charged to commercial banks to borrow money from the Fed) is a microscopic 0.75%. To add perspective, the discount rate was 5.25% in 2006 and 19% in 1980. A massive flood of… Read More

The numbers are out and it’s official: this year’s summer was the fourth-warmest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Moreover, on a population-weighted basis, it was perhaps the warmest summer on record in the United States. Yet here we are with natural gas… Read More

My phone is an old Nokia about the size of a small brick. It doesn’t take pictures, tell me the weather or connect to the Internet. That’s the way I like it. In a world that has grown increasingly complex, I feel like a… Read More

Even as the national economy manages to stay above water, the local picture is more complex. A number of states are starting to bounce back while other local economies remain under duress. Compared to a year ago, the employment picture has gotten even worse… Read More

Gold is on the march. The yellow metal is spiking to a new all time (non inflation-adjusted) highs of nearly $1,300 per ounce on renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s next moves will only strengthen the case for higher gold prices down the road. Let’s take a closer look at some key questions to see if gold is set to shine even brighter or eventually lose its luster. Q: What is the Fed concerned about? A: In its most recent statement after Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC)… Read More

Gold is on the march. The yellow metal is spiking to a new all time (non inflation-adjusted) highs of nearly $1,300 per ounce on renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s next moves will only strengthen the case for higher gold prices down the road. Let’s take a closer look at some key questions to see if gold is set to shine even brighter or eventually lose its luster. Q: What is the Fed concerned about? A: In its most recent statement after Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the Fed noted that potential deflation is of increasing concern. (Core annual inflation has been running at 0.9% for five months in a row, its lowest pace since 1966.) Any drop in prices could spell real trouble for the economy and would imperil borrowers that are seeing lower income but constant debt levels. Q: What might the Fed do? A: To help support prices, the Fed can inject money… Read More

Although investors typically seek out stocks that are poised to rise, they also need to closely monitor what’s happening among short-sellers. These short-sellers often identify red flags well before Wall Street analysts or the financial media spot them. And if you are long a stock that is heavily shorted, you’ll need to dig deeper to try to find out why. (For example, you can go back to archived version of the most recent conference call to listen to what concerns arose during the Q&A). Twice a month, the Nasdaq and the… Read More

Although investors typically seek out stocks that are poised to rise, they also need to closely monitor what’s happening among short-sellers. These short-sellers often identify red flags well before Wall Street analysts or the financial media spot them. And if you are long a stock that is heavily shorted, you’ll need to dig deeper to try to find out why. (For example, you can go back to archived version of the most recent conference call to listen to what concerns arose during the Q&A). Twice a month, the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange issue updated information about stocks that are heavily shorted. You can find that data on their websites, shortsqueeze.com, or in the Market Data section of The Wall Street Journal. Here’s a key breakdown of the short interest lists you need to know: Biggest Short Positions — Stocks on this list are not necessarily there because they are in trouble. Instead, they may simply be seen as a negative bet on the broader stock market or a particular sector. In the most recent data, three of the most five heavily shorted investments are… Read More

Can you name the oldest stock index still in use? Here’s a clue: it’s even older than the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Ten points if you guessed the Dow Jones Transportation Average (also known as the Dow Transports). Charles Dow dreamed up the index nearly 130 years ago, as he presumed that the share price movements of transportation-related companies would provide a clear read on the amount of goods being sold (and trafficked) across the country. (As a side note, Dow… Read More

Can you name the oldest stock index still in use? Here’s a clue: it’s even older than the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Ten points if you guessed the Dow Jones Transportation Average (also known as the Dow Transports). Charles Dow dreamed up the index nearly 130 years ago, as he presumed that the share price movements of transportation-related companies would provide a clear read on the amount of goods being sold (and trafficked) across the country. (As a side note, Dow also noted the importance of the Dow Transports and the DJIA moving in tandem. If only one was rallying, you shouldn’t trust it. This is one of the six tenets of the Dow Theory, which is best left for another day). Had Dow been around today, he might have stopped focusing on the Dow Transports and simply watched FedEx (NYSE: FDX), the world’s largest shipper. As you look at FedEx’s stock chart in the last year, you can get a clear read on investor expectations about the… Read More

As income investors, we can get caught up in yields… almost to a fault. But there is something else you should be studying that could make just as big a difference to your long-term returns: dividend growth. That’s because dividend… Read More

At the end of this year, a series of tax cuts implemented by George W. Bush and his administration between 2001 and 2003 are set to expire. In what now seems like an entirely different era, the cuts were approved at a time when the U.S. government budget was in… Read More